DFS Optimal Values, Locks and Fades: Week 11
In this article, we walk through the process of constructing an optimal lineup that will dominate your cash games on the main slate of Week 11. We start with the optimal lineups for FanDuel and DraftKings determined by the Lineup Generator. Then, we identify the players that are irreplaceable and should be locked into your lineup. For the remaining players, we discuss the main alternatives that you can swap in to make a winning team that best fits your own style.
For up-to-the-minute and Sunday morning updates, be sure to join the 4for4 DFS subscription-only Discord channel.
FanDuel Week 11 Optimal Plays
Locks
- A.J. Dillon ($7,000)
- Davante Adams ($8,400)
- Deebo Samuel ($7,600)
Potential Build
Lamar Jackson ($8,400) is our top value play at quarterback but I could see paying down to jam more studs into your lineup. The Bengals rough outing back in Week 9 knocked Joe Burrow ($7,400) down a bit but through the first eight games, Burrow was top 10 in points per game on FanDuel. In the three weeks heading into the bye, the Bengals were passing at the sixth-highest rate. It also helps that the Bengals and Raiders matchup has the second-highest over/under on the slate.
D'Andre Swift ($7,500) is our third-best value play at running back and is coming off of his first 100-yard rushing game of the season. The Browns defense is allowing the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game this season but have shown cracks lately. Over the last three weeks, they've allowed the 12th-most rushing yards per game. They also rank 20th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to running backs. I keep saying James Conner ($7,200) will stop scoring touchdowns and yet he keeps scoring touchdowns. In fact, he has more games with multiple touchdowns than he has games without one. The Seahawks are allowing the highest percentage of touchdowns to come from the running game when playing at home. Alvin Kamara looked like he was on track to return but missed practice on Thursday. Last week without Kamara, Mark Ingram ($6,800) played 85% of the snaps and received 18 touches. The Eagles are being run on at the seventh-highest rate and are allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to running backs., although over the last three weeks they are allowing the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game.
UPDATE: After the latest run of projections, the optimal prefers Mark Ingram and Jeff Wilson ($5,000)
Before running into Marshon Lattimore last week, A.J. Brown ($7,200) had received at least nine targets in four straight games. In those games, Brown received 37% of the team targets and an insane 57% of the team air yards. The Texans rank 17th in aFPA to wide receivers even though they're being passed on at the third-lowest rate. Ja'Marr Chase ($7,700) and Stefon Diggs ($8,100) slot in behind Brown as the next best value plays, although I like DK Metcalf ($7,500) coming off of a down game if Kyler Murray is active on the other side. Metcalf received 21% of the targets in Russell Wilson's first game back from injury. The Cardinals defense ranks 13th in aFPA to receivers but they're being passed on at the third-highest rate when playing on the road.
UPDATE: Deebo Samuel is now our top value on FanDuel. Michael Gallup should see a big jump in opportunities after Amari Cooper was placed on the Covid list.
Before laying an egg last week, T.J. Hockenson ($5,900) had received nine targets in three straight games. Being on such a poor offense is a problem and limits his ceiling. Yet, Hockenson is still essentially tied for the seventh-highest points per game on FanDuel, despite not catching a touchdown since Week 2. Perhaps he gets in this week against the Browns who have allowed the sixth-highest rate of touchdowns to come through the passing game.
If Kyler Murray plays, Zach Ertz ($5,000) should be on your radar as well. Since joining the Cardinals, he has received five targets in three out of four games. This week he gets a Seahawks defense that has been tough on receivers (eighth aFPA) but ranks 22nd in aFPA to tight ends.
UPDATE: All the value at running back allows you to pay all the way up to Travis Kelce.
DraftKings Week 11 Optimal Plays
Locks
- Cam Newton ($5,100)
- Mark Ingram ($5,400)
- A.J. Dillon ($6,200)
Potential Build
One option to pair with Dillon and Ingram is to pay down for Darrel Williams ($5,400). Williams has shown off his ability in the receiving game lately, racking up 18 receptions for 167 yards over the last three weeks. This hinges on Clyde Edwards-Helaire not returning but another concern would be his limited ability in the running game. Williams has only topped 70 rushing yards once this season and hasn't scored on the ground in four weeks. The Cowboys' defense ranks sixth in aFPA to running backs.
Another option is Michael Carter ($5,800). Tevin Coleman returned last week and put a dent in his snap counts but Carter maintained his heavy usage in the passing game. He's received at least six targets in three of his last four games. Joe Flacco starting at quarterback may take away some of those dump-offs but the overall offense could benefit. The Dolphins defense is allowing the fourth-most red zone attempts per game and Carter has a clear lead in red zone rushes.
UPDATE: Mark Ingram ($5,400) and James Conner ($6,100) are now the two running backs recommended to pair with Dillon.
Tyreek Hill ($8,200) has received at least nine targets in seven straight games. He also leads the league in air yards per game. The Cowboys and Chiefs game has the highest over/under on the slate. Despite injuries and target competition, Deebo Samuel ($7,800) just continues to produce at a high level. The 49ers are third in the league in rushing rate when playing on the road so there's a little bit of concern for the passing game options when they are nearly touchdown favorites against the Jaguars. However, Deebo's yet to have a game with fewer than 50 receiving yards and last week he also received five rushing attempts.
If I keep recommending Tee Higgins ($5,400), eventually I'll be on him when he finally has a huge game. Higgins has maintained a similar market share of targets and air yards to Ja'Marr Chase but he has only scored twice while Chase has scored seven times.
UPDATE: Adams, Deebo and Michael Gallup are the recommended plays at wide receiver.
Cole Kmet ($3,400) has quietly been coming on. He's received at least six targets in three straight games and had a season-high 87 receiving yards last week. The Ravens are allowing the sixth most PPR fantasy points to tight ends and Allen Robinson's status is in doubt as he's missed practice with a hamstring injury.
