Running Back Market Shares: Week 16 Report

In the modern NFL, the running back is no longer the focal point of an offense. Gone are the days where a 400-touch rusher is the norm, and now is the age of the running back-by-committee. With carries and targets being diluted between backs more than ever, it’s important for fantasy managers to know which backs are seeing usage and how they’re being utilized.

This column will explore the landscape of running back rushing and receiving through team market shares – the percent of a team’s running back rushes or the team’s passing targets. By looking at these rates of usage rather than raw totals, we help to strip away some of the noise of game script and pare our data down to the truer representation of how each offense thinks about its backfield.

Without any further ado, let’s ring the bell and open the markets: which running backs had a significant change in usage in Week 15?

Carries

Latavius Murray, Baltimore Ravens, +46.7% running back rushing share

The Baltimore Ravens’ backfield has become an unpredictable morass in the most critical weeks of the fantasy season. To all of those who started Devonta Freeman this week hoping for an RB2 performance, all I can say is that I hope someone else bailed out your lineup. Latavius Murray roared back to capture more than half of the Ravens’ running back rushes in Week 15, consigning Freeman to just six carries when he had averaged nearly 15 per game over the past month and had no game with less than 10 since Baltimore’s Week 8 bye. It’s hard to recommend trusting Murray going forward despite this development; the more actionable advice is likely to just downgrade expectations for Freeman to a fringe FLEX option in standard-sized leagues through the fantasy playoffs.

Chase Edmonds, Arizona Cardinals, +40.0%

Typically working as the Arizona Cardinals’ pass-catching complement, Chase Edmonds saw just one target in his return to action despite Arizona being down big to Detroit in Week 15. His primary role was to provide a spark to the flailing Cards with six rushing attempts that went for a whopping 53 yards. The only thing that then saw Edmonds and backfield-mate James Conner phased out of the game entirely, was the rest of the offense didn’t do their jobs and Arizona went into preservation mode. Edmonds will likely increase his workload as the weeks go on, especially in the receiving categories, though he’ll likely be capped at the large end of a 60/40 split with Conner – who has more than earned the work in Edmonds’ absence.

Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills, +38.5%

It’s indicative of how erratic the Buffalo Bills’ backfield usage has been that two back-to-back weeks of dominating rushing share is all we need to anoint a lead back, but that’s where we are. Devin Singletary has now continued to increase his hold on Buffalo’s early-down work, making him really the only fantasy-viable back on the team (outside of quarterback Josh Allen). Matt Breida was phased out of the offense in Week 14 and that decline continued here, while Zack Moss remains inactive. Even Singletary’s receiving usage belies the fact that he ran a team-high 27 routes out of the backfield. Singletary is a low-end RB2 going forward based on workload alone.

A.J. Dillon, Green Bay Packers, -40.0%

As Aaron Jones’ recovery from his knee injury has progressed, he has increased his share of the running back touches each week. This week, the backfield’s ground work had a perfect 60/40 split, with Jones back on top and A.J. Dillon returned to the “1B” position in the Green Bay Packers' depth chart. This was how things went for the earlier part of the season, so I wouldn’t expect the team rush share to get much lower – if at all – for Dillon, who performed admirably in Jones’ absence. Jones will likely remain a high-end RB2 while Dillon returns to low-end RB2/FLEX levels of work.

Targets

James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars, +12.1% team target share

Without the specter of former head coach Urban Meyer hanging over his head like the Sword of Damocles, Jacksonville Jaguars running back James Robinson finally saw another big workload week through the air. It didn’t hurt that the Jags remain bad enough overall that they trailed big to Houston, nor that Meyer’s handpicked competitor to Robinson – Carlos Hyde – got injured and should be out for the season. Whichever way he got there, the far more electric and fantasy-viable Robinson has returned to the top of the heap in Jacksonville with six targets in Week 15.

Dontrell Hilliard, Tennessee Titans, +11.6% team target share

D’Onta Foreman is still likely going to remain the back to roster for the Tennessee Titans this year, due to absorbing most of the rushing work and just enough receiving usage to boost him up. Still, Dontrell Hilliard remains part of the Titans’ injury-riddled pass attack and is therefore perfectly usable in deeper leagues and heavier PPR formats. In Week 15, Hilliard rushed a solid nine times for 49 yards, and though the yardage wasn’t there through the air (10 yards), he had four catches on six targets – the second-highest team target share this week. Jeremy McNichols has reemerged to challenge for aerial looks, but Hilliard’s jack-of-all-trades profile is worth taking note of.

Godwin Igwebuike and Jason Cabinda, Detroit Lions, +8.0% and +4.0%

Speaking of receiving complements soaking up all the targets from the “lead” back, Godwin Igwebuike and Jason Cabinda are now combining to triple up on the targets allocated to current Detroit Lions lead rusher Craig Reynolds. Reynolds is still the top dog and Igwebuike and Cabinda aren’t doing enough individually to merit fantasy usage, but this note is a reminder that the Lions backfield will be split into siloed roles while every-down backs D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams are out. Don’t put too much stock into any one of these players, but recognize that they’re leeching off each other’s workloads.

Mike Davis, Atlanta Falcons, -19.5%

One week after gobbling up a quarter of the Atlanta Falcons targets, veteran Mike Davis earned a single look in Week 15; he didn’t catch it. Davis has vacillated from borderline considerable to almost-unrosterable across the 2021 season and this most recent performance has largely removed him from the fantasy-viable sphere for the rest of the season. With how erratic the entire Atlanta offense has been, it will be hard to trust a running back on this team that isn’t seeing consistent receiving work. The only one who fits that bill is Cordarrelle Patterson.

Goal-Line Work

Jeff Wilson Jr., San Francisco 49ers, +75.0% running back goal-line share

You’re probably already sufficiently impressed with San Francisco 49ers running back Jeff Wilson after he ran rampant over Atlanta in Week 15 for 110 yards and a touchdown. You should be even more impressed, however, considering that he got three of the team’s four running back goal-line opportunities, punching one in for his score. With Elijah Mitchell’s knee still ailing him, it’s entirely likely the Niners’ run game will be fully consolidated in JWJ’s hands.

Cordarrelle Patterson, Atlanta Falcons, -50.0%

The flip side of the aforementioned game saw Falcons running back/offensive weapon Cordarrelle Patterson soak up most of the rushing and receiving work out of the backfield. However, his three goal-line carries netted him a fat zero yards, and – making matters worse – he ceded 50% of the goal-line work to his other teammates. Patterson is in no danger of losing his job, however, even after a lackluster day in the money zone in Week 15.