Single-Game DFS Breakdown: Cowboys at Eagles
The Dallas Cowboys will look to secure a home game in the playoffs, while the Philadelphia Eagles would be more than happy to play spoiler and make their division foe travel.
It is vital to remember that single-game slates are not simply a “max salary, play as many big names as possible, and submit” format, especially in larger tournament fields. We need to identify players that can be pieces in their offense’s success, whether in the lead or trailing, as well as the players that could be focal points in a neutral game script. The ability to then take those players and identify which will succeed in the single-game format will put us in a better position to succeed as daily fantasy players.
Vegas Total and Spread
Dallas is five-point road favorite with an Over/Under of 43.5 points. The Cowboys have an implied team total of 24.5 points, while the Broncos have an implied team total of 19 points.
Potential Game Flow Scenarios
For what it is worth, it is going to be chilly in Philly Saturday night. Wind and precipitation are not an issue, but getting hit when the temperature is around or below freezing is not a good feeling. That could matter with the Eagles defense ($4,800 on DraftKings) and Cowboys defense ($5,700 DK) top five against the run according to schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA).
Philadelphia is going to be playing a road game in the first round of the playoffs and has little to gain by starting Jalen Hurts ($10,600 DK/$16,500 FD) ahead of the playoffs. He is still dealing with a sprained ankle that cost him one game. Hurts has played well, all things considered, scoring five times (two rushing) and throwing only one interception in three games since a Week 14 bye. The Cowboys are one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL and will also be without Defensive Rookie of the Year and potential Defensive Player of the Year Micah Parsons chasing the quarterback. Trevon Diggs (non-COVID illness) will also miss this game.
COVID and injuries are also an issue for the Eagles beyond Hurts. Dallas Goedert ($5,200 DK/$10,500 FD), Jack Stoll ($3,400 DK/$5,500 FD), Boston Scott ($8,000 DK/$12,000 FD), and Jordan Howard ($2,200 DK/$8,500 FD) on the COVID-19 list. Miles Sanders (hand) is out for the Eagles as well, and if none of the COVID-19 list players are activated, their starting tight end and running back would be Tyree Jackson ($2,600 DK/$5,000 FD) and Kenneth Gainwell ($1,600 DK/$7,500 DK).
No matter if it is Hurts or Gardner Minshew ($9,000 DK/$5,000 FD) starting for the Eagles, it makes sense to have a game script aimed at throwing with the intent to open the running game.
The Cowboys will be without starting left tackle Tyron Smith (COVID-19 protocols) to go along with the lengthy list of defenders out. Dak Prescott ($11,200 DK/$16,500 FD) will have to play once again without his trusted linemen and could be under duress because of the virus. The Eagles also have a nice list of players in protocols, so a lot of players could play for both teams that are listed as out for the time being.
Throwing will not be as easy for the Cowboys, especially with Michael Gallup (ACL) out. Cedrick Wilson ($6,600 DK/$9,000 FD) joining CeeDee Lamb ($10,200 DK/$12,500 FD) and Amari Cooper ($8,800 DK/$11,500 FD) in three-wide sets. It would also not be surprising to see Dalton Schultz ($5,600 DK/$10,000 FD) as the most targeted Cowboy pass catcher; the Eagles rank 32nd in aFPA to opposing tight ends.
Ezekiel Elliott ($8,400 DK/$14,000 FD) had one of his better games this season against the Eagles, albeit it was Week 3. Since then, the Eagles defense has allowed 3.95 yards per carry and only 6.23 yards per reception to running backs. Zeke’s knee issues plus cold weather are not a combo worth exploiting. Tony Pollard (torn fascia) will not play Week 18 after not travelling with the team. Corey Clement ($300 DK/$6,000 FD) will take on work in the passing game besides his expected role as a returner.
Close, low-scoring game
Cowboys defense
Jalen Hurts (if active)
Eagles defense
Close, high-scoring game
Gardner Minshew (if Hurts is inactive)
Blowout for home team
Gardner Minshew (if Hurts is inactive)
Eagles Defense
Blowout for road team
Cowboys Defense
Gardner Minshew (if Hurts is inactive)
Cheap/Unique Stacking Option
Traditional stacks such as QB/WR1 or WR2, QB/TE, and RB/DEF are stacks seen used in winning lineups. The obvious choice is not always the winning choice. Below is a cheap stack with at least one unique quality that could break the slate.
Dak Prescott ($11,200 DK/$16,500 FD), Cedrick Wilson ($6,600 DK/$9,000 FD), and Dalton Schultz ($5,600 DK/$10,000 FD)
Prescott and Schultz should see a fair amount of rostership, so differing with Wilson is one way to get different. The Cowboys will have to pass and with the Eagles 8th in WR aFPA, CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper will see a lot of attention. Schultz and Wilson both have an average depth of target under 10 yards, and a dink-and-dunk passing approach may be the easiest way to get chunk yards against a tough Eagles defense.
Low-Priced Volatile Plays
Tyree Jackson ($2,600 DK/$5,000 FD)
Jackson could be the only tight end active for Philly. He could also produce a zero in that role. The Eagles really like the former quarterback and made sure he remained on the roster despite an injury in the preseason.
Greg Zuerlein ($4,200 DK/$9,000 FD) and Jake Elliott ($4,000 DK/$8,500 FD)
The cold weather could turn this game into a slugfest and if both teams run into issues passing, the kickers may have to save their teams from wasting good but not great drives. Wind will not be a major factor.
Kenneth Gainwell ($1,600 DK/$7,500 DK)
Despite being fourth on the running back depth chart when all Eagles' backs are healthy, Gainwell is no slouch. He has two games with at least 12 carries and has two contests with eight catches.
Corey Clement ($300 DK/$6,000 FD)
While he may not get all of Tony Pollard's touches, Clement 6, 13, and 4 touches in games that he was needed out of the backfield. He will be popular because of his salary, so getting different elsewhere is vital when rostering Clement.
Captain/MVP Picks
Jalen Hurts ($15,900 DK/$16,500 FD)
Hurts at captain makes sense because it is unknown if he will play/play the entire game. If the goal is to beat Dallas so they lose a chance at a home playoff game, then Hurts is playing the whole game short of a blowout in either direction.
DeVonta Smith ($14,700 DK/$9,500 FD)
The Cowboys' secondary is capital B Bad. If Trevon Diggs is out, Smith is in an even juicier spot. Diggs can intercept the ball, but he can also allow a lot of yards to wideouts.
Dalton Schultz ($8,400 DK/$10,000 FD)
Schultz has the best matchup of any player in this game, and with Michael Gallup out for the season, Schultz’s role will return to what it was midseason when injuries and COVID wrecked the Cowboys' receiver room.
