10 Fantasy Football Sleepers for the 2022 NFL Season
Sleeper is a term that gets thrown around quite a bit in the fantasy football realm and people in the industry who spend most of their days arguing about the hidden value and potential busts on Twitter are well versed in most players who can be considered sleepers, but there are plenty of you out there just wandering back to fantasy football after a hiatus or are just starting to research the upcoming season.
This piece is for you folks and will go over potential sleeper candidates who can be selected later in redraft leagues.
Kenneth Gainwell, Eagles (Underdog ADP: 139.1, RB45)
Gainwell “seems to be penciled in for high-leverage situations like third downs, the hurry-up offense, and goal-line work” per SI.com’s John McMullen. He played 50% or more of the snaps twice last season, turning nine touches into 61 total yards and a touchdown against the Raiders in Week 7, and generating 87 total yards and a touchdown on 16 touches against the Cowboys in Week 18. So he’s produced when called upon.
Gainwell is shaping up to be a Nyheim Hines-type, who is “better in best ball” since managers don’t have to worry about deciding when to start him. If anything were to happen to Sanders, Gainwell and Boston Scott would likely split touches in the Philadelphia backfield. The Eagles have a great offensive line, so that’s not a bad spot to be in.
Matt Ryan, QB - Colts (Underdog ADP: 159.7, QB20)
Ryan moved from a franchise that was third in the NFC South in 2021 and last in 2020 with a combined record of 11-22, to a Colts team that ended both seasons with the second-best record in the AFC South, posting 20 wins and 13 losses in the past two seasons.
The move to Indy also provides an enhancement in surrounding weaponry, as Ryan goes from having a rookie TE and a hybrid journeyman as his most gifted receiving options to one of the best RBs in the NFL in Jonathan Taylor and emerging talent Michael Pittman. Oh, and the offensive line is a massive upgrade, too.
Ryan is not the most mobile which scares some folks away, but if you decide to wait on QB after the dual-threat guys are taken, the 37-year-old could be a great value at his current ADP.
D.J. Chark, WR - Lions (Underdog ADP: 140.4, WR65)
The Lions promoted TE coach Ben Johnson to OC, replacing Anthony Lynn. Last season Dan Campbell took over play-calling duties in Week 10, with Johnson as pass-game coordinator. In Weeks 1-9, the Detroit WRs saw just 44% of targets, which rose to 66% with the change from Week 10 on. Amon-Ra St. Brown was the clear beneficiary, and if this trend continues, new Lion D.J. Chark could outperform current expectations based on ADP.
Chark lost most of 2021 due to ankle surgery, but is cleared to workout and is expected to be a go for 2022. He put up a 1,000-yard campaign in 2019 (WR17 in half-PPR points per game) with Gardner Minshew under center for most of the season, so he’s shown he can produce without an elite QB, or even a really good one. Right now Chark is being drafted as WR65 in the 12th round, and with rookie Jameson Williams most likely starting 2022 on the PUP list, he could surprise as the Lions’ WR2.
Jalen Tolbert, Dallas Cowboys (Underdog ADP: 114.9, WR54)
The 15th receiver selected in April's draft, South Alabama's Jalen Tolbert, has an immense opportunity to contribute on Day 1. Amari Cooper is in Cleveland, Michael Gallup is slowly recovering from an ACL tear, and free agent addition James Washington suffered a Jones fracture in his foot at camp this week. With Gallup and Washington sidelined, Tolbert has gone from a high upside rotational receiver to a near every down role opposite of CeeDee Lamb in last year's highest-scoring offense. Wheels up!
While his athletic profile is more average than elite compared to some of his 2022 draft peers, his collegiate production can go toe-to-toe with any of them. As a junior, Tolbert saw a 32.5% target share, hauling in 64 balls for 1,085 yards and eight scores. He returned as a senior and dwarfed those numbers, going for 82/1,474/8 with a 33.4% target share, eclipsing a 53% air yards share in both seasons. Early camp reports are promising; by all accounts, Jalen Tolbert looks ready to take advantage of this unique opportunity. His ADP is ascending, but he could still return value on his current 10th-round price tag.
Davis Mills, Texans (Underdog ADP: 204.8, QB28)
Mills didn’t win many games last year, but he played pretty well given his inexperience and relative lack of receiving weapons. In his 11 starts, he averaged 229 yards, 1.36 touchdowns, and 0.8 interceptions, with 6.95 yards per attempt. In his final six starts, he averaged 261 yards (7.51 YPA), 1.83 touchdowns, and 0.5 interceptions, which are great numbers for a rookie.
The Texans are likely to be in negative game script early and often this season, so Mills should have plenty of opportunity to throw the ball.
Nyheim Hines, Colts (Underdog ADP: 134.6, RB44)
Hines didn’t have as many spike weeks in 2021 as he did the year before, but that was likely due to Carson Wentz electing not to check it down as often as Philip Rivers did in 2020. On the other hand, Matt Ryan targeted Cordarrelle Patterson and Mike Davis a combined 127 times last season and the Colts are serious about using Hines as a receiver more frequently this year, so he could get back to the 60- to 65-catch range if he stays healthy.
Indianapolis signed Hines to a three-year deal worth $18.6 million ($12.0 million guaranteed), which would have been the second-biggest contract in free agency last year behind Leonard Fournette. He also has major upside if anything were to happen to Jonathan Taylor–he saw 18 touches for 95 yards that he saw in Week 12 of the 2020 season while Taylor was sidelined.
Zamir White, RB - Raiders (Underdog ADP: 176.5, RB54)
The Raiders usher in a new regime in 2022 led by Josh McDaniels and OC Mick Lombardi. Vic Tafur of the Athletic seems to think Josh Jacobs will not see bell cow duties in the backfield, and that the team doesn’t see him in a lead back role due to lack of explosiveness and a constant battle with injuries.
Enter rookie Zamir White. Zeuss was drafted by Las Vegas in the fourth round and has the potential to excel in McDaniels' unembellished run scheme. NFL Analyst Maurice Jones-Drew expanded on that idea, stating the Raiders are “not that creative a running team, they don’t create explosive plays in the running game — they’re like downhill, A-gap, a little power, they’re not a zone-stretch team. And if you watch his tape, that’s what he is. That’s what he does well.”
Kenyan Drake and former Patriot Brandon Bolden are there for pass-catching duties so we are looking at a murky RB room, but White could creep into fantasy relevance for pennies in draft capital. The UGA product is leaving boards as RB62, with a late-17th round ADP, and if he earns the volume, can slide into RB3 territory.
Romeo Doubs, Green Bay Packers (Underdog ADP: 151.4, WR71)
The Packers took a lot of heat when they used both of their first-round picks in April's draft to add to the defensive side of the ball. With Davante Adams in Las Vegas and Marques Valdez-Scantling in Kansas City, there's a gaping hole at wide receiver in Green Bay. The expectation was that the Packers would take a shot at adding talent to that depleted pool as soon as possible, but they may come out of this looking like geniuses.
Romeo Doubs emerged at Nevada as Carson Strong's favorite target in the Wolfpacks' prolific passing offense. During his senior campaign, he put up 1,000-yard seasons in the Mountain West, including a 71% catch rate and 11 scores. His ability as a punt returner will help immensely and keep him active on game days, but the early training camp chemistry with Aaron Rodgers, along with the glowing comments from the back-to-back league MVP, have caught everyone's attention. With fellow rookie Christian Watson's knee issues clearing a path, Doubs is getting the early reps necessary to earn Rodgers's trust, and that's enough for me to click on Doubs to round out my receiver position every time in the late round of drafts.
Austin Hooper, TE - Titans (Underdog ADP: 185, TE24)
The departure of A.J. Brown, Julio Jones, and Anthony Firkser has left the Titans with the most available volume across the board. Tennessee has 2,914 air yards and 351 targets unaccounted for, including 22 targets (64.7%) inside the 10-yard line. Robert Woods is in line for a decent portion of those and is also a solid value at his current ninth-round ADP (WR51), but Austin Hooper could be a sneaky TE with touchdown upside.
With just Woods and rookie Treylon Burks to contend with, Hooper could produce as a low-end TE1, for the price of a fantasy TE3. The 27-year-old is coming off draft boards as TE24 in the 16th round in Underdog drafts.
Mo Alie-Cox, Colts (Underdog ADP: 206.1, TE27)
Mo Alie-Cox has been operating as mostly a red zone specialist for much of his career, but things may be on the verge of taking off after Jack Doyle announced his retirement earlier this Spring. Doyle had accounted for 35% of the team’s tight end targets in 2021 and 16 of the team’s red zone targets over the last two seasons, narrowly inching out Alie-Cox’s 14 targets in the same area of the field.
Though I do like Jelani Woods as a dynasty prospect, I’m of the belief that Woods will be a semi-active part of the team in the short term, while Alie-Cox will usurp the full TE1 role on the team, though how much usage that entails is yet to be determined. He has an opportunity to provide spike weeks based on theoretical red zone usage and a possible boost to the position in the form of new quarterback Matt Ryan, who has a positive history of supporting fantasy-viable TEs.