Best Fantasy Football Matchups: Week 14

Dec 07, 2022

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Schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed, or aFPA, is 4for4’s answer to biased statistics. By removing bias, we can level the playing field and compare matchups in an "apples-to-apples" manner. As the season moves along, the data will change. Regardless, aFPA is arguably the best tool available to gain an edge when using waivers and building lineups.

Another point to make: I could offer players such as Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes pretty much every week, especially when they face awful units, according to aFPA. That does everyone a disservice, so I will do my best to avoid players rostered in the majority of fantasy leagues.

Editor's note: Check out the complete set of Week 14 rankings here.

Here are the best plays for Week 14.

Jared Goff vs. Minnesota Vikings

After multiple dud performances in October, the Detroit Lions offense scored 25-plus points in four of five November games. Their only poor-scoring game was still a win for the team. Good play plus production at every level of the offense is a great recipe against the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikes allow the sixth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and the most to wide receivers. Jared Goff is also a player to target at home in 2022. The Vikings also get a juicy matchup against the Lions' defense that is a run funnel, positioning opposing QBs and TEs to be elite targets for the final week of byes this NFL season. Vikings-Lions has the highest Over/Under of the week as of this writing.

Cam Akers vs. Las Vegas Raiders

The vibe is in shambles for the Rams, but at least the team has found ways to remain competitive on occasion. A short week against a bad defense makes Cam Akers a solid play with six teams on bye. The Raiders rank 29th in RB aFPA and are susceptible through the air to the position. Akers has only seen one target in the past two games, with John Wolford and Brycen Hopkins (for a spell) at QB. Kyren Williams has three. Akers is the lead back going forward, seeing 64% of carries and accounting for two scores, both in Week 13. The Raiders have allowed two backs to find the end zone twice on the ground and have allowed multiple backs on the same team to reach double-digit fantasy points three times this season, with the most recent happening in Week 12. Akers is a solid play, while Williams fits in as a flex play if you are hurting.

Corey Davis at Buffalo Bills

Going back to the well with Davis because it is clear that the Jets offense works better with Mike White at QB. Davis saw 10 targets and finished with 5/85/0 in New York’s comeback loss to the Vikings last week. With the Bills likely to score despite a bad showing against the Jets in Week 9, the game will be in Orchard Park, NY, with a Bills-heavy crowd. The Jets have 57, and 28 pass attempts the past two games, and even if the middle is the expectation this week, White has 300 yards passing in both games, another reason to start Davis for a second straight week. The Bills were limiting WR touchdowns for the first half of the season but have allowed multiple TDs to the position in two of the past three games.

Jack Stoll at New York Giants

Rising tides lift all ships, and Jalen Hurts is lifting all the ships. Stoll has played at least 74% of snaps since Dallas Goedert was injured and gets the 29th-ranked defense in TE aFPA. It has been feast or famine despite playing so much because Stoll only has three targets in four games. Evan Engram has been a popular streamer and may be available in your league, but in case he is not, Stoll has a better matchup than Engram despite his volatility in the passing game. That is also true for 85% of tight ends this season.

Seahawks Defense vs. Carolina Panthers

You play the teams on your schedule, and credit to the Seahawks for producing fantasy points on defense. The Panthers give up the third-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing defenses and face a Seattle team averaging 1.8 takeaways per game (2.0 per game at home). The Seahawks are also 10th in sacks per game and 11th in sack percentage. Carolina is middle of the pack in sacks per game and sack percentage allowed, but Carolina's lack of talent on offense is enough to start the Seahawks.