O-Line Rankings and Matchups to Exploit: Week 15

Dec 14, 2022

Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images

Evaluating offensive line play regarding its effect on fantasy football output has been a stone unturned throughout our game within a game. Here at 4for4, we’re dedicated to looking at fantasy pieces from all angles, and that includes the positive and negative impact an offensive line has on that team’s fantasy assets.

Below I’m going to be digging into specific weekly matchups between offensive lines and the opposing defense's aFPA —one of the many useful tools available to us here at 4for4. Many sites publish raw fantasy points allowed by position, but 4for4 goes a step further and adjusts those numbers for a defense’s relative year-to-date schedule strength. These numbers will continue to strengthen through more data points as the season progresses and when compared to a team’s advantages within the trenches will expose fantasy pieces we may not have otherwise considered.

Editor's note: Check out the complete set of Week 15 rankings here.

Let’s begin by diving into the passing game to see what o-line/defense match-ups we can exploit.

Favorable Quarterback Matchups

Eagles @ Bears

Sometimes the matchups just write themselves, and this is one of those occasions. The Chicago Bears, who have pressured the quarterback at the lowest clip in the league (24.5%) up to this point, are set to host the Philadelphia Eagles offensive line which has been the most consistent unit in the NFL through the first fourteen weeks of the season. Of the 37 quarterbacks who have attempted at least 100 passes from a clean pocket this season, Jalen Hurts ranks first in QB rating, yards per attempt, adjusted yards per attempt, TD%, and catchable%. So, basically, Hurts has been the best quarterback in the league when operating without pressure, and he’s not very likely to be feeling much of it this Sunday.

There’s so much meat on the bone in this matchup that we can look past the locked-in WR1 and WR2 plays of A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith, and consider Quez Watkins as a deep-league Flex play. Including his Week 10 mini-breakout 4-80 game, Watkins has averaged 40.4 yards on 3.6 catches with two touchdowns sprinkled in. Though it hasn’t been an exact role replacement, it’s worth noting that Week 10 is when TE Dallas Goedert went down, effectively elevating Watkins to the third receiving option on a team with a narrow target distribution. He is in play in this Week 15 game that could see plenty of passing volume.

Bills vs. Dolphins

Though the mediocre Dolphins pass rush matched up against a Bills team allowing the fifth-lowest pressure% in the league is a good enough reason to target this game, the back end of the Miami defense makes an even better matchup. The Dolphins' coverage team has allowed the fourth-most passing yards (956), sixth-highest completion% (53.5%), and 12th-highest yards per attempt (6.7) to opposing quarterbacks when under pressure, unable to capitalize when their defensive line wins up front. They’ll be tested deep often in such scenarios, as Josh Allen has a 10.8 average depth of target (aDOT) and 7.5 yards per attempt while under pressure, both marks that rank top five amongst qualifying quarterbacks.

If Allen decides to test Miami deep, the obvious benefactor would be Stefon Diggs, though he can produce a great game from anywhere on the field. The more interesting benefactor could be Gabe Davis, who has been an incredibly frustrating fantasy asset to have on teams this season. Though he has been incredibly inefficient with the targets, he ranks 14th in the NFL in WR targets with 10+ air yards down the field, averaging just under four of them per game. This matchup could turn into a fantasy boom week for Davis in the first round of the playoffs.

Jets vs. Lions

Not quite the defensive sieve they were to begin the year —particularly in the running game— the Lions still have plenty of weaknesses to exploit for opposing offenses, as evidenced by their bottom five aFPA to the quarterback (30th), wide receiver (29th), and tight end (27th) positions. In the trenches, rookie Aidan Hutchison has had an up-and-down season (with a lot of ups), but he will likely see a lot of his reps across from Duane Brown, who is having a fantastic season once he got settled in with his new team. If Hutchison flips to the opposite side, he would have a much better afternoon working on George Fant, who will look to make his second straight start as the injuries keep on adding up with the Jets' o-line. The interior of the offensive line shouldn’t have an issue keeping Mike White —the presumed starter as of this writing— relatively clean, as they have gelled throughout the season and improved as a group.

As for White, he is dealing with a rib injury that sent him to the hospital for precautionary reasons, but it looks as though he will be the starter in this game. White will be a fringe QB1 option if he is ready to go in Week 15 in what could turn out to be a sneaky shootout in a week with low implied team totals.

Favorable Defensive Matchups

Commanders vs. Giants

The Commanders come out of their Bye Week and go right back to playing the New York Giants, who they tied with back in Week 13. The Commanders D/ST scored a moderate 6.0 fantasy points while notching four sacks as their defensive line remains a powerhouse in the passing game, even without the services of Chase Young as he continues to recover from his torn ACL last November. It’s been hard to get a straight answer from head coach Ron Rivera on the status of Young’s leg, but the prevailing thought is that he could have played him sometime in the two games after he was activated to the team’s 53-man roster last month, but there was no reason to rush him ahead of the Bye Week.

With or without the stud edge rusher, the Commanders should be able to hold their own against a Giants offensive line that ranks 31st in adjusted sack rate (10.0%), as Washington is currently second in the league with their 39.9% pressure rate while Young has been sidelined up to this point in the 2022 season. Much like a certain team in Houston, the Giants have managed to have their quarterback tormented, besides getting very good play out of their left tackle. Andrew Thomas has played every single offensive snap for the team this year but has only surrendered three of the team’s 43 sacks and 16 of the team’s 153 allowed pressures.

Chargers vs. Titans

The Titans’ offense has essentially devolved into dust since their early Week 6 bye, as they have unsuccessfully moved on in a post-A.J. Brown, post-Taylor Lewan world. Over this eight-game stretch, they have scored more than 22 points only once, ranking 25th in total yards per game and 32nd in drive success% on the backs of a passing game that accrues the sixth-lowest yards per game and the fifth-highest pressure%. This would be fine if they were leaning on their elite running game, but that running game ranks 18th in EPA per play over this stretch, so that’s also out the window.

The Chargers defensive line has had its own issues with stud edge rusher Joey Bosa sidelined since Week 3, but we just saw them consistently disrupt another struggling offensive line and hold the explosive Miami Dolphins passing attack to just 17 points.

Favorable Running Back Matchups

Ravens @ Browns

There may be a few offensive lines that can’t push around the Browns in the run game but don’t include the Ravens in that group. Baltimore just got All-Pro left tackle, Ronnie Stanley back, and Cleveland ranks 30th in defensive adjusted line yards and 32nd rushing EPA per play. With no Lamar Jackson and possibly no Tyler Huntley, the Ravens are assuredly going to run it as often as possible, making J.K. Dobbins a must-start RB2, while Gus Edwards is in play for a desperation Flex play for those who want to gamble that he gets some goal-line work.

Patriots @ Raiders

This is one of the more interesting matchups of the week, as the Patriots' backfield is in a great spot for fantasy success, but we don’t exactly know who will be able to capitalize. If we go by the running back usage after Rhamondre Stevenson went down —and honestly, what else do we have to go on— Pierre Strong Jr. is going to be our RB2/3 option, while Kevin Harris is probably better left on fantasy benches. Strong was the option that received the two RB targets after the injury, and though Harris out-touched him eight-to-seven, his role was clear as the between-the-tackles grinder.

It’s difficult to trust either of them in the first week of the fantasy playoffs, but I would be fine plugging Strong in as a Flex play.

Running Backs with Bad Matchups

As opposed to breaking down every bad match-up through the rest of the slate, here are some running backs I’m looking to avoid because of their poor offensive line and/or the strong defensive fronts they will be facing: