Hoppen to Conclusions: Week 16 Insights and Analysis

Hello and welcome to the Week 16 edition of Hoppen to Conclusions! This is where I, Sam Hoppen, will share some of my favorite charts, which are designed to give you an overview of the NFL landscape. These charts, along with the commentary that I provide, aim to help you make start or sit DFS lineup construction, or any other fantasy football decisions. There can be a lot of noise in fantasy football analysis, but these charts have been carefully selected to give you some of the most relevant and useful decision points.

Each of the charts has been designed in a way that you want to be targeting players and teams that are in the top-right quadrant of the chart as denoted by the dotted black lines, which signify the median value for the stat on either the x-axis or y-axis. Before getting to each of the charts and analyses, here are some brief descriptions of what you will find on each chart and how to interpret them. As you can see, I have also added views on the last four weeks of games.

Note: neutral game-script is defined as plays outside of the two-minute warning with a win probability between 20% and 80% for the offensive team.

• Team Pace and Plays: Compares a team's average plays per game (in regulation only, overtime excluded) to its neutral-script pace, using seconds per play as a measure of pace. On the chart, the y-axis flipped to show faster-paced teams (fewer seconds per play) on top. Simply put, teams (and overall matchups) with more plays and faster pace will offer more opportunities for fantasy point-scoring.
• Team Pass Rates: Compares a team's pass rate over expectation (PROE) to its red-zone pass rate. Here we can identify which teams are passing the most when game script isn't a deciding factor and when they get close to the goal line.
• Running Back Usage: Compares running back snap percent to his high-value touches (carries inside the 10 and receptions), with the size of the player's point as his total opportunities per game.
• Wide Receiver/Tight End Usage: Compares player weighted opportunity rating (WOPR) to his targets per route run (TPRR), with the size of the player's point as his receiver air conversion ratio (RACR). WOPR weights both air yards share and target share to evaluate a player's opportunity, while RACR divides a player's receiving yards by his air yards to evaluate his efficiency in the opportunity he is given. The charts show the same information for both the wide receiver and tight end position.

Team Pace and Plays

• This week's slate of games might look repulsive at first glance, but here's a bit of optimism: three matchups (Dallas vs. Philadelphia, Arizona vs. Tampa Bay, and Indianapolis vs. Los Angeles) features two teams that appear in the top-right quadrant of both charts above. So, while some of these teams may be inept on offense (Arizona, Tampa Bay, and Indianapolis all rank outside the top 22 in EPA per play), I think these games have a decent shot to provide more fireworks than expected.
  • Action: target these three games in DFS

Team Pass Rates

• Week 15 was the first time that the Browns have had a positive PROE in three games with Deshaun Watson as their starter. It was also the first time since Week 11 that they had a positive PROE. Watson's abysmal -3.2% completion percentage over expectation and 189 passing yards per game makes it tough to start Browns pass catchers confidently.
  • Action: start David Njoku and Amari Cooper as a flex
• In the Falcons' first game with Desmond Ridder, Arthur Smith stayed the course with a -16.3% PROE. Ridder did not look great, completing just 13 of 26 pass attempts (their most since Week 10, actually). There is simply too little volume, and inefficient volume at that, to make fantasy pass catchers worth starting.
  • Action: sit all Falcons pass catchers (if you somehow still weren't)
• Tennessee's negative PROE is a bit of a mirage because they have had the highest expected pass rate over the last four weeks yet still have a 65% pass rate in those games. They only attempted 26 passes last week, but Chargers' opponents have had a -2.4% PROE this season, thanks to their subpar rushing defense. Ryan Tannehill's health is in question for this week, but Titans pass catchers are looking a bit more viable than they had in the past.
  • Action: start Treylon Burks and Chigoziem Okwonkwo if Ryan Tannehill starts

Running Back Usage

• Unfortunately, Jonathan Taylor is done for the year. Zack Moss was treated like the lead back in Taylor's stead Saturday afternoon as he was given 25 total opportunities (24 carries and one target) compared to just 14 opportunities (13 carries and one target) for Deon Jackson, a game-changer earlier this year when Taylor went down. Moss also played on 63% of the team's snaps and earned all eight of Indy's red zone carries.
  • Action: add Zack Moss, then Deon Jackson
• James Conner's role continues to be elite. He has been above a 90% snap rate and above 20 total opportunities in four of his last five games. There's no room for any other back in this backfield, and that much usage warrants continued trust in your lineup regardless of who is starting at quarterback.
  • Action: start James Conner and fade all other Cardinals running backs
• Since Ezekiel Elliott returned from a two-game injury absence, Tony Pollard has out-snapped Elliott in four of five games. Over that span, Pollard is averaging 19 opportunities per game to 18.2 opportunities per game for Elliott. However, Elliott still dominates the high-value touches, commanding 63% of Dallas' red zone carries since Week 11.
  • Action: buy both Cowboys as legit fantasy starters
• After starting the year in the proverbial doghouse, Cam Akers has come on to be one of the Rams' key offensive weapons. Akers now has at least 13 total opportunities in four of his last five games, with Kyren Williams the only one to have more than five opportunities in a game over that span. Furthermore, Akers has been above a 70% snap share in two of the last three games. With matchups against middling Broncos and Chargers defenses, Akers could fill in admirably for those hurting at running back.
  • Action: add Cam Akers and start him as an RB2 or flex

Wide Receiver Usage

• Despite playing half of his games with Zach Wilson, Garrett Wilson is in line to be the Offensive Rookie of the Year. He'll get another one on Thursday night, but it's not as gloomy as it was earlier in the year. Wilson had nine targets on Sunday for just the second time in a game with Zach Wilson this year. Wilson has also been below a 90% routes run rate just once since Week 8 (and hit a season-high 100% rate in Week 15), so he's almost always on the field. New York faces a Jacksonville defense that's a pass funnel as they rank last in Football Outsiders' pass DVOA but 14th in rush DVOA.
  • Action: start Garrett Wilson
• Diontae Johnson can't catch a break (or a touchdown). Johnson has now been targeted 122 times this season (7th most in the league), caught 76 of them, and has not found the end zone once. He even has earned 36% of Pittsburgh's end zone targets and is running a route on 95% of the team's dropbacks this season. I would say that he has to find the end zone at some point, but I've been thinking that for the last two months. His volume is enough to keep him relevant in PPR leagues, though.
  • Action: start Diontae Johnson in PPR leagues
• After securing a touchdown on Sunday, DJ Moore now has more than four receiving touchdowns for the first time in his career. That still may not be enough reason for me to start him. The Panthers have had the lowest pass rate in the league the past four weeks, and Moore has earned just 15 targets in that span. A 27.3% target share looks nice until you realize it has resulted in less than 60 receiving yards per game over the last three games.
  • Action: fade DJ Moore
• The Green Bay Packers welcomed Romeo Doubs back to the lineup last night, but he was eased in with only a 30.3% routes run rate. In fact, Allen Lazard (97%) and Christian Watson (93.9%, a season-high) were the only two Packers players to run a route on more than 60% of dropbacks. Doubs did still earn five targets for a solid 0.5 targets per route run rate, while no Packers player saw more than six targets in the game. This offense remains one of the least concentrated, and with how little they pass the ball (55% pass rate the last four weeks), these receivers are no more than boom-or-bust flex players.
  • Action: start Packers wide receivers as flex options only

Tight End Usage

• In Juwan Johnson's last seven games played, he's totaled seven touchdowns - pretty good for a tight end! This has made him the TE9 on the season in PPR leagues. Johnson's routes run rate has fluctuated between 50% and 85% all year, so it's rather tough to predict how much he'll be used in a given week, but that's the same for almost every tight end. His 20% end zone target share for the Saints this year is enough to keep him in consideration as a TE1 option for the rest of the season.
  • Action: add and start Juwan Johnson
• Darren Waller finally returned to action after missing eight games to injury (and four games to poor play) with three receptions for 48 yards and a touchdown. Waller seemed to be eased back into action, running a route on 65.9% of the team's dropbacks Sunday. Moreau still played but was demoted down to a 43.9% route rate, which was in line with his usage when Waller was healthy earlier this year. That said, I still don't trust what I'm seeing from Waller because Las Vegas hasn't had a positive PROE since Week 4 and faces some solid Pittsburgh and San Francisco defenses in the final two weeks of the fantasy playoffs.
  • Action: sell Darren Waller
• TJ Hockenson hasn't played as well as he had when he first joined Minnesota. With nine targets in each of his first three games, Hockenson has seen that many in just one game (Week 15's come-from-behind victory). Unfortuantely, he caught just three of those targets on Saturday, making his day look worse than it actually was from a usage standpoint. Hockenson is running as many routes as he had earlier with Minnesota and has been above an 80% routes rate in each of the last three weeks. His time will come.
  • Action: buy TJ Hockenson