10 NFL Draft Predictions With Fantasy Football Implications

After the usual circus that is NFL Draft season, we're finally just days away from the 2023 version. Countless mock drafts and big boards have been written and redone, and we will finally see where these rookies will call home in the NFL. To celebrate draft week, the staff at 4for4 got together in a virtual draft room, to share predictions they believe will have fantasy implications in 2023.

4for4 will have a live YouTube show, covering every pick in the first round, plus a written tracker with player blurbs and the fantasy impact of each relevant player as the picks come in on our site. Be sure to subscribe to our YouTube channel so you don't miss it!

NFL Draft Resources: Scott Smith Mock 3.0 | Connor Allen Mock 3.0 | Top 150 Final Big Board | Daigle's 10 Thoughts About the Draft | 2023 NFL Draft Bets

2023 NFL Draft Predictions

The Bears go all in on defense and raise the fantasy value of the names we already know. (Brandon Niles)

The Bears were dead last in points allowed last season and gave up the fourth-most yards. No Bear had more than four sacks, and their sack leader was a safety (Jaquan Brisker). They were middle-of-the-road in turnovers and traded top defenders Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn during the season. They need an infusion of youth and they need it now. The team has already invested significant trade capital at the wide receiver position in acquiring Chase Claypool and D.J. Moore, and they signed D'Onta Foreman as a free agent to replace David Montgomery in the backfield. Maybe they add depth and development offensively on Day 3 of the draft but expect their four picks in the top 64 to go to the defensive side of the ball, or to boost an offensive line that gave up the fourth-most sacks in 2022. As a result, the fantasy value of Foreman and Khalil Herbert will skyrocket throughout the rest of the offseason, making them both best ball values right now as the RB43 and RB31, respectively.

Dallas drafts a fantasy-relevant tight end. (Jennifer Eakins)

Historically, we rarely see rookie tight ends hit when it comes to fantasy football. However, in recent seasons with the position so volatile, these fresh faces have worked their way into fantasy conversations in their first year as professionals. Last season Greg Dulcich and Chigoziem Okonkwo put up fantasy TE2 numbers in half-PPR points per game, while in 2021, Kyle Pitts ended as TE12 in that category with Pat Freiermuth not far behind as the TE17.

This year’s tight end class is brimming with talent and the Cowboys are likely searching for a replacement for Dalton Schultz. Dallas boasts the second most TE targets available (89) with a whopping 45.1% vacated by Schultz’s departure to the Texans. With the 26th overall pick, if they decide to invest in a TE like Michael Mayer, Dalton Kincaid, or Darnell Washington, this offense is built to support their fantasy relevancy from the jump, and any rookie TE not named Kyle Pitts (ADP 48.0 in 2021) will inherently be very affordable come fantasy draft day.

RB Zach Charbonnet gets drafted on Day 2 and becomes a fantasy RB2. (Justin Edwards)

In a draft almost bereft of options that can become three-down backs at the next level, Zach Charbonnet has a resume that lends himself to success in the fantasy streets. At UCLA, Charbonnet exhibited a powerful running style that works well in both Gap and Zone runs, on top of his soft hands that led to 37 catches in his final year. Those 37 receptions were the fifth-most amongst draft-eligible running backs and complete a profile of a possible fantasy stud.

The running back who led all of College Football in EPA per carry has received comparables to former standouts, that range from Matt Forte to James Conner to DeMarco Murray. Imagine any of those options in their prime on modern-day RB-hungry teams such as the Bengals, Cowboys, Chargers, or Eagles.

Three tight ends will be drafted before the second wide receiver finds a home. (Neil Dutton)

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is, it would seem, far and away the No.1 WR prospect in this draft class. It wouldn’t shock me if he even came off the board inside the top 10 selections. After him, the picture at WR gets a bit muddier. The same cannot be said of the tight ends in this class, with intriguing prospects available early and often.

While several teams would seem to be in need of wide receiver help, there are a host of teams that might look to upgrade their tight end room ahead of stockpiling wideouts. The first team that REALLY needs a wide receiver is, by my count, the New York Giants at 25. I’m predicting that, by the time they hand in the card for Quentin Johnston or Jordan Addison - at least 10 picks after JSN gets taken - three tight ends will already have been selected, giving us our first triple-dip at the position in the first round since 2017.

The Packers take a wide receiver in the first round. (Sam Hoppen)

With the Packers moving up a couple of spots in the first round and shipping off Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay is now in a position to take its first wide receiver in the first round in ages. Most likely, it will be Jaxon Smith-Njigba, the dominant receiver out of Ohio State. Without Rodgers being able to raise the talent level of lesser receivers, Green Bay needs to invest in receivers that can win on their own. This would obviously be huge for fantasy in two ways. First, it could potentially crater the value of Smith-Njigba (or whichever receiver they take) as he'd be catching passes from an unknown entity in Jordan Love. Conversely, it could raise Love's value knowing that he has another excellent weapon to throw to. It's a new era in Green Bay Packers team building!

Bijan Robinson is a fantasy RB1 if a Falcon. (John Daigle)

It sounds as if the Falcons have whittled their choices down to either Georgia EDGE Nolan Smith or Texas RB Bijan Robinson, the latter who fits the mold of what this team is trying to build: only the Cowboys averaged more RB carries per game (27.1) than Atlanta (26.7) last year, cementing coach Arthur Smith’s intent of hiding a negligent investment under center — Desmond Ridder averages just $1.4 million annually over the next three years of his deal — with an efficient rushing attack. General Manager Terry Fontenot has already suggested as much, stating the team needs “multiple running backs to preserve their careers.” Bijan would be an RB1 regardless of Tyler Allgeier’s presence in this offense.

The biggest winner of the 2023 NFL Draft will be Jordan Love. (Sal Stefanile)

The Green Bay Packers will draft Ohio State wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba with the 13th overall selection in the 2023 NFL Draft, which, in turn, would immensely boost the fantasy stock of quarterback Jordan Love.

Pairing “target hog” (h/t Anthony Staggs) Smith-Njigba with 2022 second-rounder Christian Watson would provide former 2020 first-round pick Love with one of the most exciting 1-2 receiver tandems in the NFL. We can look to the 2022 New York Jets as a blueprint.

Jets receiver Garrett Wilson (and fellow Ohio State alum) believes Smith-Njigba is a better receiver than both he and Chris Olave. Thanks to Wilson (and Elijah Moore), Mike White took the fantasy world by storm last year for a brief spurt that saw him put up fantasy QB10 overall numbers from Weeks 12-14.

If the Packers wind up adding Smith-Njigba to the squad, keep an eye on Love’s draft capital throughout the offseason as a sleeper pick with significant fantasy upside.

Jahmyr Gibbs is selected by the Eagles with the 30th pick (Connor Allen)

Gibbs is a slim (5’9, 199 pounds) but explosive running back out of Alabama who ran a 4.36-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine. The Eagles lost Miles Sanders in the offseason and while they signed Rashaad Penny, he is yet to string together a fully healthy season. With both the 10th and 30th picks in the first round, the Eagles can afford to draft a premium position at pick 10 and an explosive running back at 30. Gibbs would be an ideal late-round draft pick in fantasy football leagues given his pass-catching upside and explosiveness in a top-5 Eagles offense. He won’t have a big role right away given his competition but could be a fantasy-viable option down the stretch in this scenario.

TE Darnell Washington goes to the Packers in the second round. (John Paulsen)

Since Jaxson Smith-Njigba to Green Bay was already taken, let's go ahead and use one of those second-round picks on another weapon for Jordan Love. Washington is 6'7" and has 4.64 speed to stretch the seam. He's a pretty freakish athlete, and we know the Packers are willing to roll the dice on great athletes that weren't the most productive in college (e.g. Christian Watson). As a junior, Washington caught 28 passes for 454 yards--good for 16.2 yards per reception, folks--and two scores playing second-fiddle at tight end behind Brock Bowers. Washington's volume and target share are a bit concerning, but his per-target and per-reception numbers lead this tight end class. Rookie tight ends usually don't produce fantasy TE1-type numbers, but Washington is the type of player who can grow with Love over the next three years.

The Colts draft C.J. Stroud at pick No. 4 overall. (Andrew Fleischer)

The drums: they are beating, and one of the songs they're playing this week is Stroud being the third QB selected. Behind such bulletproof reasoning as "he ghosted the Manning academy", "his S2 score was the worst in the class, and we don't draft 18th-percentile S2-scoring QBs", and "He went to Ohio State", Stroud's best odds are now at +210 to go as the fourth overall pick. This is an excellent scenario for the Indianapolis Colts, who get the starting QB they've been waiting for, as well as the skill position players for the Colts for both fantasy and reality purposes.

With a larger receiving upside with a talented rookie QB at the helm, Jonathan Taylor would be pushed higher into the first round in fantasy drafts, fourth-round Michael Pittman would become (at the lowest) third-round Michael Pittman, and Jelani Woods and Alec Pierce would become bigger values in the later rounds. Whichever rookie WR the Colts draft will see his dynasty rookie draft ADP spike considerably. This would also be a great outcome for Stroud long-term, and for certain brave souls who waited on QB in Underdog's Superflex Big Board tournament, the smiles would be ear-to-ear.

Only two torpedoes must be dodged: Houston deciding that the baby is more important than the bathwater and taking Stroud at No. 2, and a QB-needy team like the Titans realizing that they want an NFL-ready QB and trading up with Arizona to No. 3 to snag a falling Stroud. If he's on the board at No. 4, I think Stroud's donning a horseshoe baseball cap on Thursday.