SharpClarke Divisional Preview: NFC South

Jul 07, 2023

Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

As the build-up to the 2023 NFL season continues, this week we are diving into the NFC South. Even though this division is likely devoid of true Super Bowl contenders, there is plenty of excitement and intrigue here, with every team starting a new quarterback and a lot of unknowns to digest. Let's dive in.

As always, if you'd like access to all my NFL picks and analysis, you can find me in the 4for4 Discord. Sign up for the Betting Subscription with the Promo code "Sharp25" for 25% off the full subscription price.

Get a full year of our subscription for as low as $10, or 3 months for $5! Find out how.

New Orleans Saints

Narrative

The Saints were the most underrated team in the NFL last season in terms of my effectiveness ratings against market projections. They shot themselves in the foot too many times in high-leverage situations and sputtered out down the stretch. Perhaps this was poor coaching or a lack of cohesiveness as a team. Now they bring in Derek Carr to right the ship offensively, which is cause for tempered optimism. However, the most underrated aspect of last year's team was probably Andy Dalton himself, so the upgrade to Carr likely will not be significant. Carr fits the Matt Ryan and (so far) Kenny Pickett mold of quarterbacks who thrive between the 20s but struggle to punch the ball in the end zone when the field shrinks, and there is no space to work with. Fortunately, the Saints have options. The Saints have had a better red zone conversion rate than the Raiders for the last five seasons, including the post-Drew Brees years. Taysom Hill will likely play a role in the red zone, and Alvin Kamara gives them optionality as well. Chris Olave is ready to make a Year 2 leap, and Rashid Shaheed provides much-needed game-breaking speed on the outside. This is an offense with role players, which I tend to value higher than most.

Defensively, the Saints also deserved more credit than they received for last year's performance. They faced a very tough slate of opposing offenses and mostly held their own. They dealt with secondary injuries that cost them in key moments and struggled to get pressure on the quarterback. But that likely had as much to do with the types of quarterbacks and offenses they faced as any talent deficiency. Regardless, they might continue to decline this season with aging veterans and the losses of Marcus Davenport, David Onyemata, Kayden Ellis, and Shy Tuttle. It's tough to see how they will be better this season, and they will likely be noticeably worse. They'll likely need to rely on an improved offense with Derek Carr and what appears to be an absolute joke of a schedule to hopefully grab a division win and host a playoff game at the Super Dome. In this year's NFC, if they can stay healthy and learn their identity by the time the playoffs roll around, they could be in the mix.

Betting Approach

I would love to find ways to back a team I thought was perenially underrated last year, but two things keep me cautious: First, the market agrees. Everyone has digested the schedule by now and can see how easy the path looks. This has squeezed out most of the value betting on the Saints unless you think they are going to be really good. This brings me to the second point: They likely will take a step back on defense and might struggle to separate from the pack. If you didn't get the early prices on this team, it's probably too late for season-long bets. Early on, I will likely be cautious with this team as I observe the new offense closely.

Atlanta Falcons

Narrative

The table is set for a Falcons breakout this season. Arthur Smith schemed up a successful offense last year predicated on a strong run game, play-action, and lateral quarterback mobility. But two things held them back: Marcus Mariota was inconsistent, and the defense could not stop anyone. Drake London looked like a real difference-maker as a rookie, and wide receivers typically take a step forward in Year 2. They drafted arguably the best offensive skill player in the draft in Bijan Robinson, and Kyle Pitts - who was injured for all four games Desmond Ridder played last year - still has not reached his potential as a tight end. They signed several defensive veterans with solid leadership and bolstered the secondary. Their schedule projects as one of the easiest in the league. All the arrows are pointing up. This team has a fairly high floor regardless of quarterback play. If Ridder is not a capable quarterback, they will be, at best, a 7- or 8-win team. But things get really interesting if Ridder is good. Their upside is immense, including a realistic possibility of obtaining the top seed in the NFC playoffs.

When I studied Ridder's rookie film, his pocket awareness and poise stood out to me. He is able to feel the pocket and keep his eyes downfield. He rarely took deep sacks, often getting outside the pocket or upfield when necessary. He showed confidence in high-leverage situations, including fourth downs and potential game-winning drives. He also had a bad tendency to lock onto one read, sometimes throwing right to a defender anticipating the route. As a third-round pick, expectations are understandably low. But few teams were looking for a quarterback in that draft, pushing back all of the quarterback selections. We have seen second-year quarterbacks with limited experience smash expectations out of the water. It looks like Arthur Smith has set Ridder up to do just that with a game plan that involves three highly talented offensive weapons and simple reads for Ridder, but it's no guarantee. This team has a high floor, especially with a capable backup quarterback in Taylor Heinicke. But it also has a high ceiling.

Betting Approach

With such a big question mark at quarterback, I won't anchor myself strongly to priors on this team. Yes, I'm optimistic on Desmond Ridder. That is different than having the confidence to bet week-to-week on a large unknown. I will be quick to upgrade the offense if Ridder looks like the real deal, but for now, I have the Falcons rated similarly on offense to where they finished last season. Instead, it's a good idea to try to capture some of the upside variance in season-long long-shot markets, including going over the alternate season wins, winning the NFC, winning the NFC South, or (even) most regular season wins. Arthur Smith for Coach of the Year is another fun way to play it. Regardless, I wouldn't want to fade the market momentum favoring the Falcons this off-season.

Carolina Panthers

Narrative

The Panthers are in a better situation than most teams who pick up a quarterback with the number one overall pick by virtue of trading down from the ninth spot, meaning they were not a complete dumpster fire last season. Still, it's a lot to ask of Bryce Young to bring this team to instant success. Last year the revolving door at quarterback involving Baker Mayfield, P.J. Walker, and Sam Darnold strung together seven wins, but these wins had a specific blueprint to them. They relied very heavily on a successful run game and solid defense, racking up a shocking 280 carries against 152 dropbacks (pass attempts plus sacks) in those seven wins, earning 75 first downs on the ground to just 49 through the air. When the run game wasn't working, they had no chance. The optimistic observer can conclude that Young need only be league-average as a passer to improve this team dramatically. But the pessimist can point to how inept the passing game could be around the quarterback, particularly after losing their best two pass-catchers in D.J. Moore and Christian McCaffrey, signaling how difficult it will be for a rookie to step in and produce well.

I lean towards the latter but not very strongly. Highly-touted rookie quarterbacks that start Week 1 tend to struggle early in their careers. Recently we have seen even great quarterbacks struggle as rookies, including Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, and Josh Allen. I also watched some of Young's film, and he made a lot of plays out of structure, which is tougher to do against faster NFL-level defensive linemen. He'll need to play better within structure and timing, which might be tough without good weapons around him to make those throws easier. Frank Reich is a well-regarded head coach and offensive play-caller, but ultimately disappointed in Indianapolis. At this point, his reputation might be outpacing his production as a coach, and he'll need to be a difference-maker here if the Panthers are going to be an impactful offense. If he can get the most out of Young from day one, this team has some actual upside because the defense is quite underrated. They have talent at every level and a defensive coordinator in Ejiro Evero, who dominated last year in Denver. Like the other teams in this division, the schedule looks soft if they can just be good enough to capitalize on it. I wouldn't hold my breath, but I'm certainly not ruling it out.

Betting Approach

I'll preach patience with this team. A new quarterback with talent but question marks about how his game (and durability) translates to the NFL combined with a brand new coaching staff, creates a lot of uncertainty. Uncertainty attracts people who are good at making predictions with little evidence to go off (or at least people who think they are good at that), and I tend to focus on situations where I can analyze more relevant data. I lean towards being skeptical of this team given how rookie quarterbacks typically transition to the NFL and my view of Young's tape specifically, but remain open-minded to change my opinion given the quality of defense and coaching staff. I know that's a boring take, but a good bettor must pick their spots.

Tampa Bay Bucs

Narrative

I am not ready to give up on this team in the wake of Tom Brady's departure. The drop-off from Brady to Baker Mayfield sounds like a drastic move, but we aren't shifting from Brady in his prime. The Bucs finished 20th in offensive EPA/play and success rate last season as the team struggled all year with a one-dimensional offense. The run game lacked creativity, and Brady offered nothing to threaten defenses for any length of time, unable to move outside the pocket and unwilling to hold the ball and take hits. His time to throw was, by far, the lowest in the NFL. This made everything so tight on offense and made the run game much, much easier to defend. It's the opposite of what happens to the run game when you have a player like Lamar Jackson or Justin Fields to pull the defensive attention on every play. Recently we saw similar trends with Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh and Matt Ryan in Atlanta in 2021. The following season, both offenses actually improved despite moving on from a historically good quarterback to essentially a career backup/rookie combination, and both teams cleared their expected win total.

Mayfield isn't a great quarterback, but he has certainly shown flashes of being capable. And the circumstances around him are likely better than Brady's circumstances last year. The offensive line struggled to stay healthy, with Tristan Wirfs, Donovan Smith, and Luke Goedeke all missing four or more games and Ryan Jensen missing the whole year. Granted, they lost Shaq Mason, but if Wirfs and Jensen are healthy, Mayfield will have better protection than Brady did last year. The Bucs also hired Dave Canales as their new offensive coordinator, so things could look a lot different schematically. This can pretty much only be an improvement. On defense, the Bucs struggled relatively last year but faced a slew of top offenses. Their schedule breaks much more favorably this season, and they still have a great defensive mind at head coach and talent across the field. I expect an aggressive approach again, which can be particularly successful against quarterbacks who do not handle pressure well. When the defense is able to take some of the pressure off Mayfield, this team might actually compete.

Betting Approach

Despite my optimism, it isn't easy to bet on Mayfield and the Bucs right now. Wirfs and Jensen both are coming off injuries and may not be fully healthy right away. That matters a lot for a quarterback who likely needs protection to succeed. Defensively, Shaq Barrett is crucial to the Bucs' pass rush and is also coming off a major injury. I advise watching these health reports as we approach the season before establishing a firm opinion on this team's range of outcomes. Week-to-week, I would likely favor the Bucs when the defense can capitalize against a quarterback who does not handle pressure well and an uncreative run game. But with how low the market currently is on them, I cannot see myself going against them early on.

Market Projections

Based on aggregating currently-available odds, the betting markets project the following for each team:

Lions - 9.6 wins, ~43% chance to win the NFC North

Vikings - 8.7 wins, ~23% chance to win the NFC North

Packers - 7.6 wins, ~17% chance to win the NFC North

Bears - 7.6 wins, ~17% chance to win the NFC North

Best Bet

As much as I like the Lions' offensive outlook, I cannot find value in current market prices. instead, I'm looking to play upside with the Packers. If Jordan Love lives up to his potential, the Packers will be right in the mix to win the NFC. I'm playing Packers to win the NFC at 30/1 on DraftKings. They have all the pieces around the quarterback to be a very good team again, and the circumstances are there for Love to surprise to the upside. I've got several bullish Packers bets in the pocket, but this is currently my favorite one left on the board. Good luck!