SharpClarke Divisional Preview: AFC East

Aug 02, 2023

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The AFC East might be the best division in football this season. The teams have brutal schedules across the board, but whoever emerges from this dogfight will be battle-tested for the playoffs and ready to make a Super Bowl run. Opinions range widely on these teams, so this is a fun one. Let's dive in.

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Buffalo Bills

Narrative

The last time we saw this Bills team take the field, they suffered an embarrassing blowout home loss to the Bengals as favorites in the playoffs. They also have not made the Super Bowl despite being valued as a top team in the league in each of the last three years. It's easy to combine these facts into a narrative that they just don't have what it takes to win when all the chips are on the table. But I don't buy it. The AFC right now is arguably the most difficult conference that has ever existed, and most times, these kinds of narratives are just how our brains interpret variance. Josh Allen played one of the best and most clutch games in playoff history against the Chiefs two years ago, only for the Chiefs to pull off the impossible in 13 seconds. And yes, their game plan was atrocious against the Bengals, but I am not one to put too much stock in one outcome.

This team has an elite play-making quarterback with toughness and drive to win, a decent offensive line, and arguably the best and most diverse set of weapons Allen has ever played with. Khalil Shakir showed well down the stretch, and they added Deonte Harty to stretch the field, allowing Stefon Diggs to play a more versatile role. Dalton Kincaid should make an impact right away despite being a rookie tight end, as he will do most of his damage running routes. Kincaid also allows the Bills to play in heavier 12 personnel to improve the Bills' run game and generate consistent gains even when the defense prevents the big play, just like the Chiefs did last year. Defensively, they still have a ton of talent (especially once Von Miller returns), and I don't see Leslie Frazier moving on as that much of a problem. When you look at the Bills' struggles in the playoffs, most of it comes down to poor defensive game-planning and failure to adapt in-game. It's possible Sean McDermott does a better job overall. Despite some of the pessimism that has emerged around this team, they should be (and are, at least by the bookmakers) deemed bona fide Super Bowl contenders and the first- or second-best team in the AFC.

Betting Approach

Similar to the Chiefs last season, I am buying the Bills this off-season. My season-long metrics graded the Bills as the best overall team in the NFL last year, even including the collapse against the Bengals. I won't over-emphasize one bad snow game in my evaluation. I'm comfortable with any bullish bets at current prices, including +900 or +1000 to win the Super Bowl and anywhere down to +120 to win the division. They are still head and shoulders above the competition in this tough division. Week to week, I might be more cautious, especially in Week 1 against a Jets defense that has caused them problems in the past. But from there, we'll see.

New York Jets

Narrative

Late-career changes of scenery can be difficult to predict. Both Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford saw immediate success with their new teams in recent years, but Russell Wilson crashed and burned in Denver. Aaron Rodgers is definitely closer to Brady than Wilson, and the Jets have a solid all-around roster that won seven games with substandard quarterback play last season. If Rodgers is dialed in, the way he was in his recent MVP seasons, then the Jets will likely be legitimate Super Bowl contenders. The defense is deep and has high-end talent at important positions. It's true that the defense remained relatively healthy and capitalized in some favorable situations last year, but they also legitimately played well against some excellent offenses, such as the Bills. They are designed to play well against the best quarterbacks, with a strong combination of pressure with the front four and elite coverage.

But I retain at least a small amount of skepticism that Rodgers will flourish here right away. The offensive line is likely a downgrade from what Rodgers has played with in Green Bay for so many years, and his mobility has declined somewhat as he will turn 40 this season. Last year he avoided hits and gave up on plays, especially after he failed to establish trust early with his young receivers. It will help if Garrett Wilson emerges as a superstar, which is within the range of outcomes. But it won't be easy early on, as they face the Bills, Patriots, Cowboys, Chiefs, Broncos, and Eagles before the early bye. With volatility in Rodgers' temperament and a potentially brutal schedule early, this team has a wider range of outcomes than most top teams in the league. They certainly have the profile to win it all, but are being priced a step below the top contenders. I think that's justified.

Betting Approach

In a vacuum, I would recommend playing tail outcomes with the Jets. If things click, they have legitimate Super Bowl upside. But the books have already priced this in. Their win total, which projects a median regular-season outcome, is set at roughly 9.5 wins, similar to the Dolphins, Chargers, Lions, Ravens, and Jaguars. Yet their Super Bowl odds are shorter than any of these teams. In other words, the value just isn't there. I also will not be looking to go against Rodgers in Week 1, even after two disappointing opening games, because he seems much more dialed into the off-season program this year. I am right on the market price with this team.

Miami Dolphins

Narrative

Mike McDaniel shined in his first year as a head coach. This off-season, the Dolphins paired his offensive mind with Vic Fangio's defensive mind. And with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle creating nightmares for opposing defenses and studs at each level of the defense, the team looks primed to build on their success last year if Tua Tagovailoa can stay healthy. He enters his fourth NFL season with a litany of injuries in his past, missing games every year and suffering multiple concussions in 2022. Hopefully, the work they are doing this off-season can help him avoid any serious injury moving forward. The surface-level narrative says that, as long as Tua is healthy, this team can also compete for a Super Bowl. I am not quite convinced it's that simple.

Tua's numbers were incredible for the first part of the year. But context matters. They did a lot of damage before defensive coordinators had film on this offense, including a furious comeback from a 21-point deficit against the Ravens. After Tua's initial injury, he came back and struggled mightily against the Steelers, throwing four should-be interceptions in a narrow win. They then excelled against four bad defenses in the Lions, Bears, Browns, and Texans before struggling against the 49ers, Chargers, Bills, and Packers in four straight losses. Tua may have suffered a concussion halfway through the Packers' game, but the overall arc of his season was trending down even before that. This is a red flag for a newly-successful offense with good numbers stemming from insane levels of production in a limited sample size. I am more skeptical than most, particularly given how fragile the offense could be if either Hill or Waddle misses any time. There is a potential downside here, even if Tua stays healthy. That said, they looked more explosive than any team in the league last year when they were all clicking. It would be foolish to write Tua off completely.

Betting Approach

Even at their best, I am not convinced the Dolphins have what it takes to compete with the very best teams in the NFL on a regular basis. They will have some plucky showings, but a deep playoff run is exceedingly unlikely, even if Tua stays healthy. So I am not looking to play the upside with this team. Bearish bets in season-long markets make sense to me, but I certainly would not translate that to an early-season fade when the offense is fully healthy. They already lost Jalen Ramsey for a potentially significant amount of time, which is a tough way to start the season for a team in win-now mode.

New England Patriots

Narrative

The Patriots were a completely bipolar team last season, with significant splits in performance based on the quality of the opposing quarterback in particular. Bill Belichick has always excelled at confounding bad decision-makers with his defensive looks, and last year was no exception. Their eight wins came against Mitch Trubisky, Jacoby Brissett, Zach Wilson (twice), Sam Ehlinger, Colt McCoy, Skylar Thompson/Teddy Bridgewater, and Jared Goff. They won those games by an average margin of 13.25 points. But they lost nine games against Tua Tagovailoa, Lamar Jackson, Aaron Rodgers, Justin Fields, Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr, Joe Burrow, and Josh Allen twice. This is a troubling trend given their projected schedule this season, which features a gauntlet of divisional foes to go along with the NFC East and AFC West teams. Unless injury strikes their opponents, things will never be easy. They do have solid young talent on defense, and Belichick can still scheme up ways to slow down the best offenses, but they will have their work cut out for them. They can be a better unit and still perform worse in terms of metrics.

But amidst what will almost surely be schedule-based regression in defensive metrics, the offense should improve. They actually have an offensive coordinator in Bill O'Brien, who may not be spectacular but should bring improvement on that front. And they have some interesting pieces to work with if the scheme can get them open. Mac Jones panics under pressure, but he can throw an accurate, on-time ball when it's open. Belichick has often shown a lack of faith in Jones, including benching him in-game at one point last season for Bailey Zappe and limiting him to three pass attempts in a weather game against Buffalo as a rookie. This will be a make-or-break season for his career, most likely, with pieces in place to show what he can muster in terms of upside. Overall, the Patriots should be a better team this year than they were last year. The problem is, even an average team could get steamrolled by this schedule. To actually make the playoffs, they'll need to be significantly better than they were last year. I do not see it.

Betting Approach

I try not to overplay schedule angles because we don't really know who all these teams will be. But in this case, it will have a huge projected impact. I liked (and bet) the Patriots to win fewer than 7.5 games when it was plus money, but unfortunately, others have caught on and bet the price down. Now the juice you have to lay to make this bet is justified and offers very little to no value. Still, I'd advise caution fading the Patriots early just because you doubt their season-long performance. They should rate more highly as a team week-to-week than their win total number suggests, due to the massive impact their schedule has. If bettors get overzealous fading New England, there could even be value on the other side.

Market Projections

Based on aggregating currently-available odds, the betting markets project the following for each team:

Bills - 10.8 wins, ~41% chance to win the AFC East

Jets - 9.6 wins, ~26% chance to win the AFC East

Dolphins - 9.5 wins, ~23% chance to win the AFC East

Patriots - 7.2 wins, ~10% chance to win the AFC East

Best Bet

I project the Bills to win this division roughly 50% of the time. I believe they are undervalued in the betting markets and would bet BUF to win the AFC East (+130) at BetMGM. If you prefer to play longer odds on season-long bets, I also like them to win the Super Bowl at +1000 at FanDuel and BetMGM. The hype around Miami and the Jets has brought prices on Buffalo down when I think they are a clear tier above the other teams in the division.