Week 1 Sunday Night Single-Game NFL DFS: Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays

Welcome to the Showdown breakdown for the first Sunday Night Football game of the season. Both the Cowboys and Giants come into this season with huge expectations after each franchise won a playoff game a season ago. While the game total sits at a rather middling 46 points, don’t let that fool you. This game could have a ton of offensive fireworks. From a DFS strategy standpoint, this is a fascinating single game slate, with five viable top Captain and MVP options, which creates a ton of leverage opportunities for savvy fantasy gamers. Let’s dig into the action.

For up-to-the-minute updates leading up to kickoff, be sure to join the 4for4 DFS subscriber-only Discord channel.

Game Environment

^{This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20& and 80%). The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. We’ll include last year’s statistics through Week 4 of the regular season. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-right quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team.}

Cowboys (-2.5, 24.75) @ Giants (+2.5, 21.25); Over/Under 46.0

Both the Giants and Cowboys are uptempo offenses. Neither, however, is traditionally pass-first, though you could make very legitimate arguments that both teams have reasons to commit more to the pass this year than in seasons past. The Cowboys no longer have Ezekiel Elliott, who commandeered a large portion of the weekly touches, and no longer have a lacking wide receiver corps behind CeeDee Lamb. The trio of Lamb, Brandin Cooks, and (a significantly healthier version) Michael Gallup can be among the league’s best, and running back Tony Pollard’s pass-catching prowess only adds to the myriad ways this offense can attack opposing defenses.

While there were some dramatic moments in the negotiation process, the Giants managed to retain all of their major offensive firepower from a season ago, while also making a splash move for tight end Darren Waller. Waller comes into the weekend with a questionable tag, but reports are that he was moving around well in practices at the end of the week, an indicator that while his snap share may be slightly reduced, he should still get plenty of run as the team’s de facto number one option in the receiving game. Of the two offenses, the Giants are the more likely team to lean conservative run-heavy, possibly aiming to play keep-away from the potent Dallas offense. But this is far from a guarantee. The Giants made several offseason moves that indicate they’re trying to up the amount of explosive plays (10-plus yard rushes and 20-plus yards passes) from their offense, an area they ranked well below league average in 2022.

Jump to Ownership Projections

Quarterback Analysis

^{While there may be 22 people on the field for every play, each play and game is heavily dictated by the performance of each team’s quarterback. While efficiency isn’t everything for quarterbacks, it is the best indicator of future performance, so we use a trio of metrics to suss out top performers at the position compared to lackluster ones. xDrive Success %, or True Drive Success Rate, is a measurement of a QB’s ability to turn drives into scores weighted by sample size. EPA or Expected Points Added, is a measurement of the QB’s contribution, both running and throwing, to the team’s scoring and production vs. the average NFL team. Completion % over Expected (CPOE)represents the accuracy and efficiency of a QB’s passes compared to league expectations.}

Both quarterbacks found themselves in the “solidly above-average” category in the three key efficiency indicators above. Jones, who had been inconsistent as a passer in his first few years as a starter, came into his own in 2022, ranking in line with superstars Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow in terms of completion percentage vs. expectation. While he still has room to improve on a per-play and per-drive level, all indications are that Jones is capable of leading a highly competent offense. His threat as a rusher makes him difficult to scheme for, and his added weaponry at the skill positions thrives in the same areas Jones does (short-to-mid area and inside-the-numbers). All in all, the Giants' front office and coaching staff have given Jones and this offense every chance to succeed, now it’s up to him to execute.

Dak Prescott struggled with accuracy last season. His 3.8% interception rate a season ago was the worst rate of his career and the worst rate of any full-time starting quarterback in the league last season. But further analysis reveals more to the story. Last year, 18 quarterbacks had more plays deemed “Danger Plays” by PlayerProfiler. He wasn’t even ranked in the top five in interceptable passes, and PFF ranked him outside the top 10 in Turnover-Worthy Play rate. Moreover, the other two efficiency metrics, indicate that Prescott was excellent at turning drives into scores. Prescott is a clear bounce-back candidate in both the interception and touchdown passing categories in 2023. And while the Giants have made strides defensively, they finished last year ranked 22nd in defensive pass DVOA and below-average in yards allowed per pass attempt. Look for Prescott to take a few deep shots in this game as well.

Core Plays and Auxiliary Options

^{In this chart, we’ll observe a player’s opportunity value, measured in Expected Fantasy Points per Game and represented by the solid-color bars. We can then compare that to the 4for4 projections, represented by the faint-color bars. When the faint bar is not visible, it indicates the player’s previous opportunity value is greater than their projected value.}

Tony Pollard and CeeDee Lamb should command a significant amount of the Cowboys’ overall fantasy value. For the first time in his career, Pollard is in line for a bell-cow role to begin the year, and he has thrived when given the opportunity, ranking top five last year in yards per touch and breakaway run rate. The Giants were dead last in rush DVOA a season ago, and while defensive DVOA isn’t the stickiest metric from year to year, it’s unlikely New York’s defensive has transformed itself into an elite unit in one offseason. In short, an electrifying runner is going to get a ton of touches against a bad defense. That’s a smash play. Lamb is a more than viable tournament option with an extremely high ceiling but reaches a ceiling score much less often than Pollard when looking at the range of outcomes for both players. Brandin Cooks and Michael Gallup should both see five-plus looks as well, with Jake Ferguson likely mixing in as a flyer tight end worth considering, as well. Only large-field MME players should be looking outside of those core Dallas options.

For the Giants, it will be, as it has since he arrived, the Saquon Barkley show. Especially with Waller seeming less than 100%, it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see Barkley begin the season with 20-plus opportunities, something he did 11 times in 18 games a season ago. Waller will have plenty of plays designed to go his way, and the projection for him looks more than solid, but coming into the game banged up while also being a primary focus of the Cowboys’ defense makes Waller the least exciting of the game’s “big four” skill position players.

Expect the Giants to mix in rookie Jalin Hyatt, who made some highlight-worthy plays in the preseason, as a new deep threat. They also added the oft-injured former Colt Parris Campbell as yet another underneath weapon alongside returning role player Isaiah Hodgins. If the Giants are to become more explosive as a passing offense, they will need to increase their ability to stretch defenses deep and break tackles underneath, all while creating more opportunities to get their stars the ball in space. A healthy Campbell and an effective Hyatt could go a long way to making this possibility a reality.

Captain & MVP Picks

In this section, we'll discuss approaches for Captain and MVP, with a major emphasis on the less obvious options.

Tony Pollard, Cowboys

The salaries, particularly on DraftKings, make the game theory options fascinating for fantasy gamers. Pollard is the most expensive player on the slate, so it’s strange to be talking about him as a “less obvious” option, but he’s worth mentioning on a slate where we may see five players with double-digit Captain rostership. With little consensus about who to roster, we’ll side with the hyper-elusive rusher going against the worst defense, and with a ceiling score that rivals the quarterbacks on the slate. He will be popular, yes, but relative to typical “popular” Captain picks, Pollard might actually be undervalued.

Brandin Cooks, Cowboys

Back in 2021, Dallas had one of the most dynamic passing attacks in the entire NFL. Dak Prescott threw for a career-high 37 passing touchdowns while budding superstar CeeDee Lamb was buoyed by the consistently superb play of veteran Amari Cooper. Cooper was traded for peanuts after the season, and Dallas did little to fill the void in 2022. Enter Brandin Cooks, still just 29 years old, who can still be an effective deep threat and reliable number-two option. Cooks should make everything easier for Prescott and has the ability to reach a ceiling score on just a handful of looks. Expect the Cowboys to dial up at least one deep shot per game to Cooks this season.

Jalin Hyatt, Giants

Hyatt doesn’t look all that enticing in our projections, I’ll admit. This is more about what Hyatt could theoretically mean to this offense if he’s good. Hyatt was tremendous in college on deep passes, and will immediately force defenses to respect the possibility of a deep pass from the New York offense. While Isaiah Hodgins projects to be third in the pecking order among Giants skill players, it’s also possible he ends up squeezed out of a larger role due to Campbell, Darius Slayton, or even Sterling Shepard. Hyatt is the only player on the squad with his set of skills, and the Giants would be foolish not to attempt to unleash him right from the start.

Build Strategies

In this section, we'll explore potential approaches to lineup building with an emphasis on utilizing game scenarios to distinguish different lineup "building blocks." This can be especially helpful for hand-builders who utilize scenario-based thinking to generate their small core of lineups

Scenario 1: Light Up the Scoreboard

Both teams have the ability to score much more than their implied totals indicate. Moreover, neither defense is any better than average (with the exception of the Dallas pass rush), while both teams spent a majority of their offseasons revamping their offenses. In this scenario, Lamb, Cook, and the QBs are the players to target.

Scenario 2: Ugly NFC East battle

The Cowboys come into this matchup banged up on the offensive line. If they can’t get the run game going, it might force Dak Prescott to try and do “too much” once again, which could turn into multiple stalled drives. The Giants don’t have a clear outside weapon emerge, and Waller, hobbled by hamstring problems is less effective than anyone hopes, allowing defenses to swarm Barkley. In this scenario, Jones becomes the preferred QB due to his rushing upside, while Kickers and Defenses become viable, even at Captain in large-field scenarios.

Scenario 3: Cowboys win in a landslide

One could argue that the Giants played above their ability a season ago. They ranked just 16th in the NFL in average point differential. PFF ranked them as the third-worst defense and the 22nd-ranked offense. Yes, they have a strong front office and look to be in good hands with coach Brian Daboll, but they are clear negative regression candidates heading into 2023. Meanwhile, the Cowboys managed a 12-win season while their quarterback had one of his most difficult seasons statistically. The Cowboys have the potential and firepower offensively to overwhelm the Giants. In this scenario, Prescott and at least (likely two) one of his pass catchers is optimal, as could the DAL DST, especially if the Giants fold early in the onslaught.

Projected Ownership

Below is the projected ownership for FanDuel and DraftKings. Note that these projections are projected and simulated based on large field tournaments. In smaller field, three-entry, and single-entry tournaments, rostership typically consolidates around top plays, with significantly less of the field using auxiliary options, kickers, and defenses. These projections will change significantly in the days and hours leading up to kickoff