O-Line Rankings and Matchups to Exploit: Week 10

Nov 08, 2023

Kirthmon F. Dozier / USA TODAY NETWORK

Evaluating offensive line play regarding its effect on fantasy football output has been a stone unturned throughout our game within a game. Here at 4for4, we’re dedicated to looking at fantasy pieces from all angles, including an offensive line's positive and negative impact on that team’s fantasy assets.

Below, I’m going to be digging into specific weekly matchups between offensive lines and the opposing defense's aFPA—one of the many useful tools available to us here at 4for4. Many sites publish raw fantasy points allowed by position, but 4for4 goes a step further and adjusts those numbers for a defense’s relative year-to-date schedule strength. These numbers will continue to strengthen through more data points as the season progresses and, when compared to a team’s advantages within the trenches, will expose fantasy pieces we may not have otherwise considered.

Let’s begin by diving into the passing game to see what O-Line/defense matchups we can exploit.

Favorable Quarterback Matchups

Quarterback Matchups
O-Line Ranking	Team	Opponent	aFPA	Difference
1	DET	LAC	32	31
6	ATL	ARI	29	23
10	BUF	DEN	26	16
19	SEA	WAS	30	11
9	GB	PIT	17	8
12	LAC	DET	19	7
15	CIN	HOU	21	6
3	DAL	NYG	8	5
4	IND	NE	9	5
17	HOU	CIN	20	3
22	WAS	SEA	25	3
8	MIN	NO	10	2
14	SF	JAX	16	2
27	CAR	CHI	28	1
7	KC	BYE	7	0
25	LAR	BYE	25	0
16	MIA	BYE	16	0
2	PHI	BYE	2	0
13	TB	TEN	13	0
5	BAL	CLE	4	-1
29	ARI	ATL	27	-2
23	NE	IND	18	-5
30	TEN	TB	24	-6
21	DEN	BUF	12	-9
20	JAX	SF	11	-9
11	CLE	BAL	1	-10
26	NO	MIN	14	-12
18	LVR	NYJ	2	-16
32	NYG	DAL	15	-17
24	PIT	GB	7	-17
28	CHI	CAR	5	-23
31	NYJ	LVR	6	-25

Lions @ Chargers

The Detroit Lions' offense has been running on all cylinders through the 2023 season—apart from a Week 7 misstep against the Ravens—and they now look prone to come out of the bye week to continue their offensive onslaught. Much of their success has started up front, and with guard Jonah Jackson and center Frank Ragnow returning as full participants in early-week practices, they will once again be fully healthy against a Chargers team that high-level offenses have picked apart.

Los Angeles is coming off of two impressive wins in which they limited their opponents to 19 combined points on the scoreboard, but when we consider that those teams were the Bears and Jets, it’s enough to raise an eyebrow. When looking at schedule-adjusted numbers allowed, we see that they currently rank 30th in fantasy points allowed to opposing offenses and dead-last in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. While the Chargers racked up an incredible 54 pressures over these last two weeks, they still rank 23rd in pressure rate (32.9%), as the Lions rank ninth in pressure rate allowed (30.9%) and sixth in adjusted sack rate (5.31%).

Jared Goff has been dealing out of clean pockets all season long, ranking fifth in adjusted QB rating (114.7), fourth in adjusted yards per attempt (8.3), and fourth in expected points added per play (0.16). If the Chargers hold up their end of the deal, this game could turn into a fantasy bonanza, as it currently sits at a 48.5 total, the highest of the week. Outside of Amon-Ra St. Brown, Josh Reynolds makes for an interesting FLEX play, as Jameson Williams looks every bit like a player who has been away from the field for most of the last two years.

Falcons @ Cardinals

The play calling has been all over the place for the Atlanta Falcons, but their offensive line has remained a constant all year long. A big reason for that has been consistent health along the entirety of the starting five, as right tackle Kaleb McGary is the only player to miss any time at all, and that was for a minor knee injury back in Week 5. The O-Line—and the team in general—are more built for the run game, but they’ll have a chance to flex their superiority this week against a Cardinals team that ranks dead last in pressure rate (27.4%).

Taylor Heinicke has done just enough since the benching of Desmond Ridder to remain on fantasy radars and will now take the starting gig into Arizona to take on a Cardinals team that ranks 29th in scheduled-adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing offenses, as well as QB aFPA. Heinicke will look to solidify his position as the team heads into their Week 11 bye and evaluate who will wrap up the season as the team’s No. 1 signal-caller.

Getting Drake London back in time for Sunday’s afternoon game should do wonders for Heinicke’s fantasy floor, as the receiver has accounted for a 22.9% target share (26th among qualifying WRs) and a 28.7% air yard share (36th) if we filter out the one-target Week 1 debacle.

Heinicke’s 42 Week 9 dropbacks were the third-most for the Falcons this season, and a similar game script could play out if the Cardinals' offense receives a very likely boost with the return of Kyler Murray.

Seahawks vs. Commanders

The Commanders’ defense will be one we should be targeting in anything resembling a positive matchup throughout the rest of the fantasy season. Though they limited Mac Jones to a 5.0 yards per attempt and 54.5 completion percentage in their first game without the Montez Sweat-Chase Young duo, they also predictably tallied only one single quarterback hit on 46 dropbacks. This is going to be an issue moving forward, particularly when we factor in a better quarterback (Geno Smith), much better weapons (DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, etc.), and an offensive line returning Abe Lucas for the first time since Week 1.

While the Seahawks aren’t particularly high in these current offensive line rankings (19th), some of that is simply trepidation about how quickly Lucas will return to form after a surprisingly positive 2022 rookie campaign. The third-round selection ranked 21st out of 85 qualifying tackles in blown block percentage (2.4%) last season and will be an immediate upgrade to the right tackle rotation that has been transpiring over the last two weeks between Stone Forsythe and 41-year-old Jason Peters.

This is a locked-in bounceback week for Geno Smith up against a Commanders defense that ranks 30th in QB aFPA, 31st in WR aFPA, and 31st in schedule-adjusted points allowed to opposing offenses. Fire up Seahawks fantasy pieces wherever you’ve got them—up to and including Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Favorable Defensive Matchups

Packers @ Steelers

The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has had a moderate upward trajectory through the season, but that certainly doesn’t mean they don’t have exploitable pieces of their puzzle. The guard play of James Daniels and offseason addition Isaac Seumalo have been the main strength of the line, but the other three options have shown their warts when available this season. Left tackle Dan Moore Jr. currently ranks 60th out of 70 qualifying tackles in blown block percentage (5.1%), and there is somewhat of a rotation forming on the other side of the line, as Chukwuma Okorafor was benched last week for massive rookie Broderick Jones.

The key piece to this matchup will be interior defensive lineman Kenny Clark taking on center Mason Cole, but it’s worth noting that Clark sat out the second half of the team’s Week 9 win with a shoulder issue. No definite word on that front at the time of writing, but there is a lot of positivity surrounding his availability. Edge rushers Rashan Gary and Preston Smith—who have combined for nine sacks and 51 pressures this season—are able to cause enough havoc to give the Packers D/ST a fantasy floor this week.

Vikings vs. Saints

The return of right tackle Ryan Ramczyk has been a boon for the once-great Saints offensive line that has been dealing with minor injuries all season long. The Saints have had eight different linemen log a start to this point in the season, and five of their options are at least 30 years old, hinting toward the wear and tear of the unit. Ramczyk will have his biggest test of the season against Vikings pass rusher Danielle Hunter, who has continued his reign of terror by leading the league in sacks (10, tied with four others) and ranking 13th with 24 QB hurries.

Derek Carr has been a middle-of-the-road quarterback against pressure this season, ranking 16th in on-target percentage (65.8%), 17th in adjusted yards per attempt (3.7), and 20th in QB rating (69.9) among 36 qualifying quarterbacks. The Vikings D/ST aren’t a Week 10 slam dunk, but they make for a very good play in leagues with teams hoarding defenses, as well as over on FanDuel, where they are priced as the sixth-cheapest option on Sunday’s main slate.

Favorable Running Back Matchups

Running Back Matchups
O-Line Ranking	Team	Opponent	aFPA	Difference
6	ATL	ARI	29	23
10	BUF	DEN	32	22
3	DAL	NYG	23	20
1	DET	LAC	17	16
4	IND	NE	15	11
9	GB	PIT	20	11
15	CIN	HOU	24	9
18	LVR	NYJ	26	8
23	NE	IND	27	4
28	CHI	CAR	31	3
22	WAS	SEA	25	3
27	CAR	CHI	28	1
8	MIN	NO	9	1
21	DEN	BUF	21	0
7	KC	BYE	7	0
25	LAR	BYE	25	0
16	MIA	BYE	16	0
2	PHI	BYE	2	0
13	TB	TEN	13	0
19	SEA	WAS	19	0
11	CLE	BAL	10	-1
31	NYJ	LVR	30	-1
24	PIT	GB	22	-2
5	BAL	CLE	2	-3
20	JAX	SF	16	-4
17	HOU	CIN	11	-6
12	LAC	DET	5	-7
14	SF	JAX	7	-7
32	NYG	DAL	12	-20
26	NO	MIN	6	-20
29	ARI	ATL	8	-21
30	TEN	TB	4	-26

Bills vs. Broncos

It’s frustrating to hold on to James Cook as a fantasy manager, knowing full well he is not going to garner the goal-line work, no matter how long we want to wait it out. The 190-pound back now has eight rushing attempts from inside the opponent’s 10-yard line and zero from within the 5-yard line. Josh Allen and Latavius Murray have combined for 19 and 14 carries from those respective areas, and the team recently signed Leonard Fournette, who projects to rotate near the end zone as well.

Nevertheless, this matchup is perfect for Cook against a Broncos defense ranked 28th in adjusted line yards (4.53), 30th in yards before contact (1.60), and 32nd in RB aFPA. The only thing taking away from this play is the possibility of a blowout, in which case the team may give Fournette extra run to see where he’s at ahead of the final stretch of games. Regardless, Cook is an easy click as an RB2 with upside for more.

Cowboys vs. Giants

Tony Pollard has been a disappointing fantasy asset as a borderline Round 1/2 selection back in August, but the Cowboys are still the third-ranked scoring offense in the league, so we shouldn’t expect much consternation from the team themselves. There’s no doubt the explosiveness we’ve seen in the past isn’t quite there, as he ranks 39th out of 45 qualifying running backs in the percentage of runs that go 10+ yards (6.7%). Still, his involvement in the passing game (49.2% route participation, 11th) maintains a fantasy floor, as he has caught at least three passes in six-of-eight weeks.

The team will almost assuredly rotate in Rico Dowdle and Deuce Vaughn plenty as whopping 16.5-point favorites. However, Pollard still got 16 opportunities (targets-plus-carries) for 82 yards and two scores back in Week 1, when the Cowboys steamrolled this Giants team to the tune of 40-0.

Running Backs with Bad Matchups

As opposed to breaking down every bad matchup through the rest of the slate, here are some running backs I’m looking to avoid because of their poor offensive line and/or the strong defensive fronts they will be facing: