DraftKings Best Ball: The Worst Value in Every Round

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In this piece, I’ll go round by round-ish, identifying the worst values/guys I am fading according to current ADP in DraftKings best ball contests. Let’s get to it.

Round 1

Puka Nacua, Rams (ADP: WR6, 9.3)

He broke out in a big way last year as the WR6 in PPR scoring on a per-game basis, but Puka Nacua may not get there again. Cooper Kupp is at full health which wasn’t the case for most of 2023, and in the 11 games in which they were both active last season, Nacua had 92 targets to 89 for Kupp. It feels like Nacua is being overdrafted when the likelihood of more of a 1a/1b situation could be the case in LA instead of Nacua as WR1 and Kupp the WR2.

Round 2

Nico Collins, Texans (ADP: WR11, 17.2)

Coming off a WR7 finish in PPR per game scoring last season, drafters are now selecting Nico Collins in the second round at pick 2.05. The arrival of Stefon Diggs and a healthy Tank Dell could pose some problems for Collins returning that type of value, particularly in PPR scoring. He’s a YAC machine, ranking sixth among WRs last season with 549 yards after the catch, but will need a large piece of the target pie to be worth his current draft spot.

Round 3

D.J. Moore, Bears (ADP: WR23, 34.0)

I don’t think anyone in this round is truly overpriced but I had to pick someone so D.J. Moore it is. The WR room in Chicago is standing room only with Moore, Keenan Allen, and rookie Rome Odunze, and they are catching balls from an unproven rookie QB. I’d prefer Moore as a Round 4 option in PPR scoring but he’s fine here if you believe in Caleb Williams in Year 1.

Round 4

Zay Flowers, Ravens (ADP: WR25, 39.3)

In his rookie season, Zay Flowers popped with TE Mark Andrews on the shelf and ended as the WR31 in overall PPR points. He is technically the WR1 for Baltimore, but the sophomore is likely the No. 2 option for Lamar Jackson behind Andrews. With the TE healthy from Weeks 2-10 last season, he posted 14.6 PPR points per game on 6.6 targets, while Flowers turned 6.2 targets per contest into 10.4 PPR points per tilt in that timeframe. Throw Derrick Henry in the fold in 2024, and it could be more difficult for Flowers to return his current early-fourth-round value.

Round 5

C.J Stroud, Texans (ADP: QB5, 57.1)

The sophomore had an incredible first year in the league and is surrounded by plenty of talent, but a fifth-round price tag is just too rich for a non-mobile QB. You can get similar production with rushing upside from Dak Prescott or Kyler Murray, who are both being selected two rounds later in the seventh.

Round 6

Jayden Reed, Packers ( ADP: WR34, 60.8)

Regression is a real possibility for Jayden Reed in 2024, both in volume and output. Christian Watson missed half of the season, and without him, Reed averaged 15.9 PPR points per contest, which fell to 11.3 when Watson was on the field. There are many mouths to feed in the Packers offense including new RB Josh Jacobs and two healthy TEs, so a reduction in targets for Reed is a real possibility. The Green Bay WR is leaving boards at the top of the sixth round at WR34 and is ranked as 4for4’s WR46 in PPR scoring.

Round 7

Evan Engram, Jaguars (ADP: TE8, 72.7)

This area of the TE draft has historically not been great, and if I don’t pay up for an elite one, waiting is my preferred strategy. Evan Engram is coming off of a solid season, but the passing game is a crowded one in Jacksonville, which may affect his production in 2024. Last year with Christian Kirk, the TE saw 7.5 targets per contest, which he turned into 10.4 PPR points a game, then without him, he spiked up to 10.4 targets per tilt, translating to a whopping 18.5 PPR points across those contests. With Kirk back and rookie Brian Thomas Jr. now on the roster, expecting another season of 143 targets is a bit too much.

Round 8

Jameson Williams, Lions (ADP: WR47, 91.6)

He’s finally healthy without any sort of NFL suspension, but this ADP feels high for Jameson Williams. In 19 games, the Detroit WR has eclipsed six targets just one time (7), and without consistent volume and Williams as more of a big-play archetype, he’s a better-in-best-ball guy who shouldn’t be drafted at single-digit ADP. Give me Jamo in the late-ninth to the 10th round.

Rounds 9-11

Javonte Williams, Broncos (ADP32: RB, 110.7)

Last year didn’t go as expected for Javonte Williams (RB33 in PPR/game), and despite being another year removed from a major knee injury, there is plenty of competition in that Denver RB room. Even if he does get the bulk of the carries over Jaleel McLaughlin, Audric Estime, Semaje Perine, and Blake Watson, the Broncos likely won’t be good enough on offense to return the value. Denver is currently projected for an average of just 19.6 points per contest in 2024, one of the lowest in the NFL.

Rounds 12-14

Cole Kmet, Bears (ADP: TE15, 136.6)

I get that we’re in TE2 territory now but I’d rather have Pat Freiermuth at the same ADP or even Taysom Hill almost a full round later. Cole Kmet had moments of production last year with anemic offensive options in Chicago outside of D.J. Moore, but now that Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze are in town, the Bears are highly unlikely to target Kmet enough to return 12th-round draft capital.

Rounds 15-17

Malachi Corley, Jets (ADP: WR77, 183.8)

Taking rookies late in drafts is a strategy I get behind, but not Malachi Corley. The 22-year-old falls into the gadget player area and resembles more an RB in style of play than a WR based on college history at Western Kentucky. Aaron Rodgers has Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, and now Mike Williams to toss the ball to, and it doesn't seem like there will be enough fruit on the tree left for Corely to be selected in the 16th round.

Rounds 18-20

Frank Gore Jr., Bills (ADP: RB73, 227.9)

Frank Gore was a staple in the fantasy conversation for 16 seasons, a true legend. However, his son is not quite there yet. Or even close. Frank Gore Jr. was a UDFA who signed with the Bills, a team that also took RB Ray Davis Jr. in the fourth round. They have a rushing QB, James Cook, and now Davis, along with Ty Johnson, leaving no room for Gore. He may make the team, end up a practice squader, or could get cut altogether by the time the 53-man roster solidifies, but even as a final dart throw, I’d rather have Devontez Walker, Jalen Tolbert, or Will Shipley.

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Odds and lines subject to change. See terms at draftkings.com/dfs