Who Should I Draft with the 1st Pick in Fantasy Football

To nail your fantasy football draft, you need the right strategy, along with savvy player takes. This article outlines the best player to draft with the first overall pick, along with tips for filling out the remainder of your roster based on ADP and specific scoring settings.

Our Perfect Draft series covers multiple draft spots in various scoring formats and league sizes using Draft Hero software. Find your perfect draft today!

Here are the current Perfect Drafts from the 1st spot:

• 1st in a 12-Team ESPN PPR League
• 1st in a 10-Team Yahoo Half-PPR League
• 1st in a 12-Team Yahoo Half-PPR League

Standard League: Christian McCaffrey, RB (SF)

Since 2019, there have been five running back seasons of 20 or more standard fantasy points per game. Christian McCaffrey owns three of them. In standard leagues, he is the obvious 1.01 selection. The 49ers scored the third-most points in the NFL last season, and McCaffrey is the offense’s focal point in the red zone – his 79 red zone touches ranked first at the position in 2023.

Pass-catching volume matters far less in standard compared to PPR formats, so McCaffrey’s third-place finish in total receptions (67) was positively overshadowed by his league-leading 2,023 total yards and 21 touchdowns. Currently, McCaffrey has the highest 2024 ADP on all major fantasy platforms.

Assuming you begin your draft with the 49ers star runner, focus on landing two to three wide receivers, along with an elite quarterback over the next four rounds. It’s possible to box yourself into a corner if you open your draft with back-to-back running backs, though standard leagues are the one format where drafters can pull this strategy off in 2024.

Looking at last season, eight running backs, four wide receivers, and zero tight ends reached 200 standard fantasy points. Only one tight end, Sam Laporta, even reached 150 points (153). Because overall scoring is depressed in standard, quarterbacks become relatively more valuable. Seven signal callers reached 300 total fantasy points, so it’s critical to get one of them onto our fantasy squad in the fourth or fifth round.

Best Alternative Picks: Bijan Robinson or Breece Hall

If you’re a contrarian, these two running backs offer youth and are still on offenses that project to score an above-average number of touchdowns.

PPR Scoring: Christian McCaffrey, RB (SF)

McCaffrey has finished as the top PPR scorer in fantasy points per game in three of the past five seasons, including last year. McCaffrey just led the league in rushing yards, total yards, and touchdowns, and his 24.5 fantasy points per game was higher than any other player, regardless of position, in fantasy football. The team made no major additions to the running back room in free agency or the draft, so McCaffrey’s role should not change much heading into next season.

Building a strong receiver core is arguably the most important aspect of nailing a PPR draft since wide receivers generally catch more passes than running backs and tight ends. If we start off with McCaffrey, we need to draft three to four receivers over the next five rounds. Over the past two seasons, 13 running backs, 22 wide receivers, and just one tight end have reached 250 PPR fantasy points. Turning to fantasy points per game, we have 16 receivers with at least 17 fantasy points per game over the past two seasons compared to 11 at the running back position.

Elite quarterback strategy can still be effective in PPR formats, but it’s definitely not as critical compared to standard-scoring leagues. Tight end can also be considered after the first four rounds, once receivers with obvious fantasy WR1 upside are off the board.

For a full 16-round PPR draft with picks and explanations from the 1.01 spot see Brendan Darr's ESPN article as part of our Perfect Draft series.

Best Alternative Picks: CeeDee Lamb/Tyreek Hill/Ja'Marr Chase

If you’re looking to start with a wide receiver, these three project for heavy volume in well above average offenses. PPR drafts are the most effective place for those interested in employing the Zero RB strategy, where three to four receivers, plus an elite quarterback and tight end, are selected before filling out the running back room.

Half-PPR Scoring: Christian McCaffrey, RB (SF)

Surprise, surprise… McCaffrey is once again the preferred pick at the 1.01 slot. Everything mentioned about him in the standard and PPR sections holds true in half-PPR formats.

In a half-PPR league, a blend of the standard and PPR formats is recommended. Elite quarterbacks and tight ends fall in the middle here, where neither are slam dunk picks, but they can both be part of a well-rounded fantasy roster with upside. Make sure to have three to four wide receivers by the sixth round in a half-PPR league to make sure you’re not boxed out at the position.

For a full 16-round draft half-PPR with picks and explanations from the 1.01 spot see Justin Edwards' Yahoo article as part of our Perfect Draft series.

Best Alternate Picks: Several Players

Because half-PPR is a nice medium between standard and PPR scoring, any of the alternate picks listed above are viable here.

Superflex: Jalen Hurts, QB ((PHI)

You can go many different ways in Superflex drafts depending on your specific draft room, but starting with a quarterback like Jalen Hurts provides safety and upside. Hurts’ 26.8 fantasy points per game during the 2022 fantasy season is the highest mark by a quarterback since Lamar Jackson’s 2019 season. Last year, only Josh Allen out-scored Hurts.

No other quarterback provides Hurts’ combination of mobility and passing ability with an elite supporting cast. The Eagles have a top-flight offensive line, and Hurts will be throwing to A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, and the newly-signed Saquon Barkley. Despite “struggling” at the end of the 2023 campaign, Hurts still scored more than 20 fantasy points in five of six games to close out the fantasy season.

The beauty of beginning a Superflex draft with a quarterback like Hurts is the flexibility it gives you in the next few rounds. Drafters should aim for one more quarterback by the end of the fifth round to avoid being locked out of the position – the quarterback position has more stability and fewer injuries than the other flex-worthy ones.

Two to three strong wide receivers, along with one or two running backs should be the focus, as well. High-end fantasy running backs and receivers can rival quarterback scoring, but it’s rare to see a tight end perform like a top-12 quarterback in fantasy. If you need to de-prioritize a starting spot in superflex, make it your tight end or second running back if going particularly wide receiver heavy.

Best Alternate Pick: Josh Allen or Christian McCaffrey

McCaffrey shows up here once again because he can actually out-score all the quarterbacks in a given season. Allen has recorded at least 24 fantasy points per game in four straight seasons, but that also coincided with Stefon Diggs’ arrival. With a depleted supporting cast, Allen’s fantasy season could look a lot like Patrick Mahomes from last year.

Top Late-Round Targets

Late-round picks should complement your draft strategy from the early and middle rounds. For example, if your team includes several early receivers, take more shots on running backs late.

These ground rules for your fantasy bench should help you stay on track towards the end of your draft:

• If you took an elite quarterback or tight end, a second one is not needed
• Always keep at least two handcuff running backs on tap in case of injury
  • Prioritize your opponents’ backup running backs, as opposed to your own
• Stash at least one rookie or second-year player
• Wide receivers should be under age 29
• When deciding between two players, choose the younger option or the one on the better offense

Before outlining a couple of players that fit these bullet points, if your league starts a kicker and defense, wait until the final two rounds to fill these slots.

MarShawn Lloyd: Lloyd checks a lot of boxes we’re looking for in a late-round pick. He’s a rookie handcuff running back on a Packers offense that projects to be high-scoring once again. The third-round pick would likely take on a heavy workload should the starter, Josh Jacobs, get injured.

Rico Dowdle: Dowdle has only tallied 113 career NFL touches since the Cowboys scooped him up as an undrafted free agent in 2020. However, he now finds himself on a Dallas Cowboys depth chart devoid of any solid options. Currently, his only hurdle to major playing time is the 29-year-old Ezekiel Elliott.

Below, you can see a realistic 16-round draft with the first overall pick. The following table provides the round you can expect to draft each player in a typical, 12-team half-PPR fantasy league.