2013 NFL Draft: Live Fantasy Recap (Rounds 4-7)
The third and final day of the 2013 NFL Draft (Rounds 4-7) begins Saturday at 12 p.m. ET. Television coverage continues on ESPN and the NFL Network.
Here at 4for4, I am taking the baton from Senior Editor John Paulsen, who covered Round 1 Thursday and Rounds 2-3 Friday. I will be updating this page with analysis of the fantasy implications of each skill position pick. Since opportunity is crucial for a rookie, we assign a grade for each, given the player's opportunity for playing time in 2013.
Before we go and get too excited about this crop of mid- to late-round rookies, I'm here to douse that fire before it gets burning. While there will likely be a couple of players selected today who will beat the odds and prove valuable in 2013 fantasy football leagues, the odds are stacked heavily against them.
In 2012, 43 QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs were selected in rounds 4-7. Of the 20 WRs selected, Chris Givens (selected at 4.01) was the only WR to accumulate more than 400 total yards. Travis Benjamin (4.05) came in second with 364 yards.
No tight ends drafted in 2012 rounds 4-7 caught a TD pass, with Bengals Orson Charles leading the group with 101 receiving yards.
The four QBs selected combined for 5 starts (Kirk Cousins, 2; Ryan Lindley, 4).
But there was a bright spot. The 12 RBs drafted in 2012 rounds 4-7 contained Alfred Morris, Vick Ballard, Bryce Brown, and Daryl Richardson (who happened to be the final RB selected at 7.45). Morris, of course, turned out to be a legit stud and a huge factor in many fantasy football championships while Ballard, Brown and Richardson held RB2/3 or flex viability for stretches. Robert Turbin and Lamar Miller were also in this class, and held some handcuff value.
Looking back at the 2011 class, the results are similar, but with fewer outliers at RB. Of the 54 skill position players selected in rounds 4-7 of 2011, only four players gained over 400 yards. Again we see two Redskins RBs on the list. Roy Helu tops it with 1019 total yards. Another Redskins RB, Evan Royster just made the cut with 405 total yards. In-between them we have Denarius Moore (679) and Kendall Hunter (668). Beyond those four, Delone Carter and Jacquizz Rodgers were marginally rosterable for stretches, but that's about it from the 2011 mid- to late-round draft class.
Redskins RBs aside, rounds 4-7 have been mostly a fantasy wasteland for the past two seasons. A few players could buck the trend this year and prove valuable come fall, but they will most certainly be the exceptions to the rule.
Now that I've sufficiently dampened your spirits, let's get to it...
4.01 - Philadelphia Eagles - QB Matt Barkley, USC
Barkley is underwhelming physically, but he had good intangibles (leadership, mental makeup, ability to read coverages, etc.) and is consistently accurate on his throws. His arm strength is average, and he struggled under pressure in last season. He is not the most durable player; he has injured his right shoulder twice, including a season-ending injury in 2012. He’s commonly compared to Chad Pennington in that he has the accuracy and temperament to be a solid game manager.
The Eagles traded up three spots to land Barkley, who now has the chance to be Chip Kelly's QB of the future. With Michael Vick signed to a one-year deal, Barkley will likely start the season no higher than number two on the depth chart. But Vick's propensity to get injured could open the door for Barkley playing time at some point this season, assuming he can beat out Dennis Dixon. Nick Foles could be the odd man out.
Opportunity: B+
4.04 - Jacksonville Jaguars - WR Ace Sanders, South Carolina
Sanders lacks size (5'7", 173) and top-end speed (4.58 40), but has great hands and is regarded as one of the top punt returners in the draft. With Justin Blackmon and Cecil Shorts locked in at WR1/WR2 in Jacksonville, Sanders figures to make his impact on special teams while competing for the WR3 job in camp. With his upside being WR3 in a Blaine Gabbert led attack, Sanders 2013 impact outside of return leagues wont be significant.
Opportunity: C-
4.05 - New England Patriots - WR Josh Boyce, TCU
Measuring in at 5'11", 206 lbs, Boyce possesses good speed (4.38), has good hands and is a solid route runner. His upside looks to be as a slot WR at the next level. Of course, we know the upside of the Patriots slot WR, but Wes Welker is the exception, not the rule. And Danny Amendola was brought in to fill that role. Expect Boyce to contribute on special teams and eventually get a shot in the slot if an opportunity arises.
Opportunity: C-
4.09 - Miami Dolphins - TE Dion Sims, Michigan State
Dion Sims brings a huge 6'5", 285lb frame to the Dolphins. Sims has good speed for his size (4.75), but is known more for his blocking ability than his pass-catching. His fantasy upside is as a TE2 behind Dustin Keller, not something to get excited about.
Opportunity: C-
4.13 - New York Giants - QB Ryan Nassib, Syracuse
Nassib has a pretty good arm and solid leadership skills. Mentally, he’s ready to play in the NFL. His velocity on short/intermediate throws is good, but his touch is bit shaky and he isn’t consistently accurate on his deep throws, making him a questionable pick for teams that often play in bad weather. His mobility is decent and he has shown solid pocket presence.
Nassib was hotly rumored as a first round possibility, but instead fell all the way to day three and was selected by the Giants at 4.13. New York is about as bad of a landing spot as possible for a QB looking for playing time. Nassib will have plenty of time to study under Eli Manning, but his fantasy impact will be zero without an injury. He will likely compete with David Carr for backup duties to start the season.
Opportunity: D
4.15 - Oakland Raiders - QB Tyler Wilson, Arkansas
Tyler Wilson was looking poised for a first day selection after his 2011 campaign, but after losing his HC Bobby Patrino his 2012 season suffered. Wilson brings good size (6'2", 215) and arm strength to the table, as well as good leadership skills. On the downside, he has a long release time, questionable foot work, and small hands.
Wilson lands in Oakland, where he will need to beat out Matt Flynn for a Week 1 starting job. Flynn is no stranger to giving up the starting gig to a rookie. But Tyler is no Russell, and even if he wins the job, the Raiders situation isn't nearly as appetizing for fantasy owners as the situation was in Seattle.
Opportunity: B
4.18 - Pittsburgh Steelers - QB Landry Jones, Oklahoma
Jones possesses good NFL size (6'4, 225), has a quick release, and has good short- and mid-range accuracy. The book on him is his tendency to lose composure under pressure, get flustered, and accuracy issues when on the move. He'll be studying under Ben Roethlisberger, a master under pressure, so the immediate opportunity for fantasy impact is not there. Jones will have plenty of time to work on his game. He will compete with Bruce Gradkowski for backup duties in 2013.
Opportunity: D+
4.26 - Seattle Seahawks - WR Chris Harper, Kansas St.
Seattle lands a somewhat raw receiver with a good size/speed combination (6'2", 230lbs, 4.55) in Chris Harper. Harper was a high school quarterback, converting to full-time WR in 2010. He has good hands and is hard to bring down after the catch. With this likely to be Golden Tate's last year in Seattle, Harper will compete for the WR3 job this season, and could see more action if Sidney Rice or Percy Harvin succumbs to injury, something they have been known to do.
Opportunity: B-
4.28 - Green Bay Packers - RB Johnathan Franklin, UCLA
There were rumors before the draft that Franklin had passed Eddie Lacy as the draft’s top RB, and they end up being the 7th and 4th backs taken, respectively, both by the Packers. Franklin has decent top end speed (4.55 40-yard dash) and runs with toughness. He doesn’t show great patience and needs to do a better job of taking what the defense gives him. He has quick feet and posted decent times in the 3-cone and shuttle drill at the Combine. He’s pretty polished in the passing game and is a willing blocker in protection.
The pick certainly puts a dent in the fantasy stock of DuJuan Harris, who may be relegated to #3 RB duties if Franklin and Lacy meet expectations. This pick isn’t particularly good for Lacy either, though it should keep him focused now that he has some serious competition for touches. This looks like it might be Lacy on early downs with Franklin coming in as a third-down back.
Opportunity: B
4.31 - San Francisco 49ers - WR Quinton Patton, Louisiana Tech
Patton measures in at 6-foot, 204lbs with a 33 inch vertical that allows him to get up and make plays on the ball. He has good awareness on the field, is good rout runner and possesses good hands to go along with his 4.53 speed. In San Francisco, he'll likely compete with last year's first-round selection A.J. Jenkins for WR3 playing time after Michael Crabtree and Anquan Boldin.
Opportunity: C-
4.34 - San Francisco 49ers - RB Marcus Lattimore, South Carolina
San Francissco goes back-to-back with skill-position picks and selects South Carolina's all-time TD leader, Marcus Lattimore. Lattimore was on his way to becoming the top back selected in the 2013 NFL Draft before tearing all three ligaments in his right knee on October 27th, a gruesome injury replayed on television ad nauseam. He tore his left ACL the season before, but now finds himself in a situation in SF where he wont need to contribute in his rookie season.
The RB situation is crowded in San Fran, with Frank Gore on his last legs and Kendall Hunter and Lamichael James waiting in the wings. Don't expect much from Lattimore in 2013 and expect an three- or four-headed RBBC in the 49er's future, depending on if Frank Gore sticks around for the final year of his contract.
Opportunity: D
4.35 - Atlanta Falcons - TE Levine Toilolo, Stanford
Toilolo is a physical freak, at 6-foot-8, 260 pounds, but didn't realize his potential at Stanford, never catching more than 26 passes in a season. He is raw and a suspect blocker. He will study under Tony Gonzalez with an eye towards development and the future.
Opportunity: C-
5.02 - Jacksonville Jaguars - RB Denard Robinson, Michigan
Robison was announced as a running back, his likely position at the next level, but was perhaps the most exciting quarterback to watch in the NCAA, compiling over 4000 rushing yards to go along with 6000 passing yards over the past three seasons. Denard is small (5'11", 200lbs) with electric 4.4 speed, but doesn't have the accuracy to be considered at quarterback in the NFL, but who knows what HC Gus Bradley will do if Blaine Gabbert continues to underwhelm.
Excitement is certainly something the Jaguars fanbase would appreciate, but Robinson is likely to be used as a jackknife, RB/WR hybrid who can contribute on special teams. He probably wont see enough regular playing time to make a fantasy impact but is an interesting player to monitor as we see how the Jaguars intend to use his unique skill-set.
Opportunity: C
5.07 - Arizona Cardinals - RB Stepfan Taylor, Stanford
Taylor turns in one Cardinals uniform (Stanford) for another (Arizona). Taylor has good power as an inside runner (5'9", 215lbs), but lacks the speed (4.76) to get outside or make plays once he gets to the second level. The situation in Arizona is crowded with newly-signed Rashard Mendenhall and Ryan Williams behind a suspect offensive line. Don't expect much from Taylor.
Opportunity: C-
5.11 - New Orleans Saints - WR Kenny Stills, Oklahoma
Stills has good speed (4.38), but lacks physicality. The Drew Brees upside is intriguing, but Stills will be competing with at least Nick Toon, Joe Morgan and Preston Parker for playing time behind Marques Colston and Lance Moore.
Opportunity: C-
5.18 - Dallas Cowboys - RB Randle Joseph, Oklahoma State
A mediocre all-around back with a bit of power and some pass-catching ability, the 6 foot, 200 pound Joseph Randle struggles in pass protection and lacks top-end speed. He will battle for backup snaps with Phillip Tanner and Lance Dunbar.
Opportunity: C
5.21 - Washington Redskins - RB Chris Thompson, Florida State
Thompson is a small back (5'7" 190lbs) with some speed to his game, Thompson will likely contribute on special teams and could eventually earn some change-of-pass or third-down work, but will need a lot to go his way to find any relevance in Washington behind Alfred Morris, Evan Royster and Roy Helu.
Opportunity: D
5.25 - Seattle Seahawks - TE Luke Wilson, Rice
Wilson stands 6'5" and posted 40 tims of 4.57 and 4.46 at his pro day. He's a project TE and finds himself behind at least Zach Miller and Anthony McCoy if he makes roster cuts.
Opportunity: C-
5.27 - St. Louis Rams - RB Zac Stacy, Vanderbilt
The Rams moved up to draft the 5'8", 218 pound Stacy, who worked as Vanderbilt's every-down back for the past two seasons. Stacy isn't an elite talent, but finds himself in a reasonably good situation, competing with Daryl Richardson and Isaiah Pead for touches.
Opportunity: B-
5.28 - Denver Broncos - WR Tavarres King, Georgia
King is 6-foot, but a bit undersized at only 189 pounds. He has good speed (4.47) but has been prone to drops during his time at Georgia. Regardless, he there aren't many available snaps on offense with the newly-signed Wes Welker joining Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker on the roster.
Opportunity: C-
5.31 - Miami Dolphins - RB Mike Gillislee, Florida
Gillislee is a decent all-around back with a bit of power to his game. He gives good effort in pass protection and takes what he's given in the rushing game. If he makes the team, Gillislee will likely slot in behind Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas.
Opportunity: C
5.33 - Miami Dolphins - K Caleb Sturgis, Florida
At 5.33 the Dolphins selected the first kicker of the draft. Sturgis has good leg strength and accuracy and will push Dan Carpenter for the starting job. Sturgis would be the much cheaper option.
Opportunity: B
6.03 - Detroit Lions - WR Corey Fuller, Virginia Tech
With good size (6'2", 204lbs) and speed (4.43), fuller was a vertical threat last season at Virginia Tech. Fuller is still quite raw, but the opportunity is there in Detroit with both Nate Burleson and Ryan Broyles coming off of injuries and Mike Thomas failing to impress.
Opportunity: B
6.04 - Oakland Raiders - TE Nick Kasa, Colorado
Kasa is a defensive end converted to TE midway through his junior year at Colorado. His value comes in the blocking game.
Opportunity: D
6.06 - Arizona Cardinals - WR Ryan Swope, Texas A&M
Swope excels as a route runner and has good hands. He clocked a blazing 4.34 40 time at the combine, but will be buried on the depth chart behind at least Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Roberts and last year's first round pick Michael Floyd.
Opportunity: C-
6.09 - Buffalo Bills - K Dustin Hopkins, Florida State
A power leg with good accuracy, Hopikins will battle Rian Lindell for the starting job this summer. Hopkinds would be a much cheaper option, but obviously lacks experience.
Opportunity: B
6.13 - Oakland Raiders - RB Latavius Murray, Central Florida
Murray is a big back (6'2", 223lbs) and blazed 4.40 and 4.38 40 times at his pro day. Murray is a solid pass catcher. If he makes the roster, he will compete with Taiwan Jones, Jeremy Stewart and Rashad Jennings for scraps behind Darren McFadden.
Opportunity: C
6.14 - Carolina Panthers - RB Kenjon Barner, Oregon
Barner carried the ball 278 times for 1767 yards and 21 touchdowns last season as Chip Kelly's bell cow. However, he struggles in pass protection and with ball security. With Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams on the roster, Barner will likely only contribute on special teams as punt and/or kick returner.
Opportunity: D
6.16 - Oakland Raiders - TE Mychal Rivera, Tennessee
The Raiders selected Rivera as their 2nd tight end of the 6th round. Where Nick Kasa excels in blocking, Rivera brings value as a pass-catcher. Competing with David Ausberry and Richard Gordon, the opportunity is there, but as a 6th round pick, Rivera is likely too raw to make much impact his rookie season.
Opportunity: B
6.18 - Pittsburg Steelers - WR Justin Brown, Oklahoma
Brown will likely compete for a spot on special teams and could end up returning kicks. Brown caught passes from Steelers 4th round pick Landry Jones at Oklahoma.
Opportunity: C-
6.19 Arizona Cardinals - RB Andre Ellington, Clemson
Ellington has good speed and average size (5'9", 199 pounds). He lands in a crowded situation in Arizona with newly signed Rashard Mendenhall, Ryan Williams and Cardinals 5th round pick, Stepfan Taylor.
Opportunity: C-
6.21 - Tampa Bay Bucs - RB Mike James, Miami
The Bucs traded RB LeGarrette Blount to the Patriots for Jeff Demps and a 7th round pick. A few minutes later they were selecting Mike James, a power back from Miami. James could get some short-yardage work to spell Doug Martin, but we fully expect Martin to handle the vast majority of the work in Tampa Bay.
Opportunity: C-
6.22 - Cincinnati Bengals - RB Rex Burkhead, Nebraska
Burkhead is a serviceable all-around back, but posted a 4.73 40 time at the combine. Burkhead will likely become a situation runner used to spot 2nd round pick Giovani Bernard as the Bengals move away from Benjarvus Green-Ellis.
Opportunity: C+
6.26 - Seattle Seahawks - RB Spencer Ware, LSU
Weighing in at 228 lbs, the 5'10" Ware's upside is as a short-yardage back at the next level. If he makes cuts, he'll be buried behind Marshawn Lynch, Robert Turbin and second round pick Christine Michael.
Opportunity: D
6.27 - Houston Texans - WR Alan Bonner, Jacksonville St.
Bonner looks to be a special teams return specialist in the NFL.
Opportunity: D
6.29 - Cincinnati Bengals - WR Cobi Hamilton, Arkansas
Hamilton is a tough receiver with good size (6'2", 212lbs) and decent speed (4.56). He'll likely compete with the likes of Andrew Hawkins and Brandon Tate for a roster spot behind A.J. Green, Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones.
Opportunity: C-
6.31 - Detroit Lions - RB Theo Riddick, Notre Dame
Riddick played some WR in college and will bring his pass-catching ability to a high-octane Lions offense with plenty of pass attempts to go around. If he sticks, he will likely be used as a returner but could eventually be used as a hybrid back in passing situations behind Reggie Bush and Joique Bell.
Opportunity: C
6.33 - Houston Texans - TE Ryan Griffin, Connecticut
Basketball player turned TE, Griffin caught 116 passes over his career at Connecticut. He'll look to develop behind Owen Daniels and Garrett Graham.
Opportunity: D
7.03 - Oakland Raiders - WR Brice Butler, San Diego St.
The 6'3" Brice Butler weighs in at 205 pounds with good speed. Butler played one season for San Diego State after transferring from USC. He'll battle for a roster spot.
Opportunity: D
7.05 - Detroit Lions - TE Michael Williams, Alabama
Williams has massive size (6'5", 278lbs) and good hands, although he caught only 24 passes in his senior season. Williams excels at blocking and could develop into a red zone target. He will compete for a roster spot behind Brandon Pettigrew and Tony Scheffler.
Opportunity: C-
7.10 - Green Bay Packers - WR Charles Johnson, Grand Valley St.
6-foot-2, 215 pound Johnson posted sub 4.4 40 times at his pro day but struggled with off-field issues throughout his collegiate career. He'll compete for a roster spot behind Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and James Jones. Situational upside is there if he were to impress and benefit from an injury in front of him.
Opportunity: C
7.13 - Arizona Cardinals - TE D.C. Jefferson, Rutgers
A raw talent with good size (6'6", 255lbs), Jefferson will compete for a roster spot with the likes of Jim Dray and Jeff King.
Opportunity: D
7.15 - San Diego Chargers - QB Brad Sorensen, Southern Utah
Sorensen has a big frame (6'4", 229lbs) and a strong arm with decent accuracy. He'll look to stick with the Chargers as a developmental 3rd QB or practice squader.
Opportunity: D+
7.16 - Buffalo Bills - TE Chris Gragg, Arkansas
Gragg posted a TE best 4.50 40 time at the combine, but at 244 is a bit small to be used as an in-line blocker. In Gragg the Bills add another athlete to a roster that lacks a pass-catching TE as Scott Chandler works his way back from ACL surgery.
Opportunity: B-
7.18 - Green Bay Packers - WR Kevin Dorsey, Maryland
The Packers add their second WR in 9 picks. Dorsey will compete for a roster spot but looks more like a practice squader.
Opportunity: D
7.22 - Washington Redskins - RB Jawan Jamison, Rutgers
The Redskins used a second late-round pick on RB Jawan Jamison after selecting Chris Thompson in the 5th. It's an extremely crowded situation for the 5-foot-7, 200 pound Jamison, who left college after his red-shirt sophomore season at Rutgers.
Opportunity: D
7.24 Indianapolis Colts - RB Kerwynn Williams, Utah St.
Williams scored 20 TDs as an all-purpose back at Utah St. A bit small but with good speed, Williams projects as a situational pass-catcher at the next level. His immediate impact may be on special teams.
Opportunity: C-
7.28 - Denver Broncos - QB Zac Dysert, Miami (OH)
At 6'3" 231 pounds, with a big arm, decent accuracy and some mobility, Dysert looks the part of an NFL QB. He'll join Brock Osweiler as a developmental project behind Peyton Manning.
Opportunity: D
7.30 - Chicao Bears - WR Marquess Wilson, Washington St.
Wilson has the size (6'3", 194lbs) and speed (4.5) coaches look for, but missed the second half of his final season at Washington State for violating team rules. He'll likely compete for a WR5 job with the likes of Eric Weems and Joseph Anderson, but if he gets his act together, could make a push for playing time for a Bears team that desperately needs talent at WR after Brandon Marshall and second-year man Alshon Jeffery.
Opportunity: C+
7.31 - San Francisco 49ers - QB B.J. Daniels, South Florida
Daniels was a dual-threat QB at USF, rushing for over 2000 yards and 25 TDs over his four year career. But if he manages sticks on the roster, it might not be at QB.
7.32 - Baltimore Ravens - WR Aaron Mellette, Elon
The 6-foot-2, 217 pound Mellette has good hands and is a good route runner, catching 210 passes over the last two season . He comes from Division 1-AA Elon, but with Anquan Boldin recently departed, finds himself in a good situation to earn rookie playing time if he can seize the opportunity.
Opportunity: B
7.43 - Atlanta Falcons - QB Sean Renfree, Duke
Renfree will battle Dominique Davis for the backup job behind Matt Ryan.
Opportunity: D+
7.47 - New York Giants - RB Michael Cox, Massachusetts
If Cox makes the final roster it will be as a power back option behind Andre Brown and David Wilson on the depth chart.
Opportunity: C-
7.48 - Indianapolis Colts - TE Justice Cunningham, South Carolina
The Colts selected Justice Cunningham with the final pick of the 2013 NFL Draft. His upside looks to be on the practice squad, with the Colts fairly deep at TE.
Opportunity: D
