The NFL Draft's Impact on Best Ball ADP

Some players clearly fall into the ‘Winners’ or ‘Losers’ category depending on how their team drafted in late April. Others have unclear situations headed into 2020. However, their shifts in ADP present either value or risk depending on how early they’re being drafted. Let’s dig into the data and see who we should fading or drafting more of in best ball.

Quarterbacks

It was 2018. Tyrod Taylor had moved on from Buffalo and was set to take over an offense featuring Jarvis Landry, David Njoku, and Nick Chubb. That was until the Browns drafted Baker Mayfield first overall. Taylor started three games until Mayfield took over midgame to snap the Browns losing streak. Now, in Los Angeles, Taylor is up against the same odds, albeit, a better roster. He’s set to replace Philip Rivers as the Chargers evaluate Justin Herbert, who they took at sixth overall in the draft. Taylor's ADP (210.9) puts him in QB3 consideration, but his output as a passer gives pause.

The supporting cast and offensive scheme are worth considering when comparing the two side-by-side. It’s also important to note that Taylor was able to compensate with his rushing. He had 125 yards in his three 2018 games alone. He was third in quarterback rushing in 2017. His stock is up with the expectation he starts in 2020, but it’s unclear as to if he’ll finish the season.

Carr, Haskins, and Prescott were all granted new weapons by their respective GMs. Prescott and Carr’s additions are especially noteworthy with wide receivers drafted in the first round. With these additions, their potential for exceeding their draft cost has increased leading to their uptick in value.

A bad landing spot, or lack thereof, has dropped the values of some of the potential steals in the late rounds of drafts. Post-LASIK Jameis Winston now sits behind Drew Brees. The rumors of Cam Newton signing with the Patriots have fizzled out and the former Panther is still without a team. Without a path to significant time on the field, their values should continue to plummet as the season draws closer.

Tight-End

Another onesie position, but again, tight-end situations are straightforward in determining value. Recently signed free agents fall on both sides of ‘Stock Up or Down’ along with one of the rookies making an appearance on the list. Optimal roster construction on FFPC suggests multiple picks into tight ends requiring a solid understanding of a range of outcomes for each as we head into the season.

Kmet went 43rd overall to the Bears. He was the first tight-end drafted giving him the capital to boost our excitement surrounding the Notre Dame prospect. But there isn’t an odder landing spot. Currently, the Bears have nine tight-ends on the roster. They also signed Jimmy Graham to a two-year deal after watching him amass 1,083 yards over two seasons in Green Bay. Plus, rookie tight ends are hard to trust. Evan Engram needed an injury to Odell Beckham and a weak supporting cast to finish as the TE5 in 2017. Otherwise, it’s a risky prospect to bet on a rookie tight end.

Eric Ebron’s move to Pittsburgh should be discussed more than it has. The former Colt ended his stint in Indianapolis with 16 touchdowns over two seasons. Vance McDonald, Jesse James, and Xavier Grimble together can’t match that production. By ADP his stock is down, but Pittsburgh is an excellent offense to target in best-ball drafts given their suppressed costs.

Running Backs

Running back situations are harder to scope. Skillset and usage take the forefront of the discussion. Metrics like draft capital, offensive line, and team potential (win totals, yards per drive, etc.) loom in the background. After the draft, we’ve had to reassess some of the committees with value opening for some and while others are left out as their team looks at incoming players.

Josh Jacobs trained with Julio Jones prior to joining the NFL to hone his receiving skills. He broke Darren McFadden’s record for the most rushing yards in his first four career games. He also reset the franchise’s rookie rushing total surpassing Marcus Allen’s rushing total for his first season. To congratulate him, the Raiders extended Jalen Richard on a two-year deal, drafted two wide receivers, and drafted a hybrid running back that will add another creative layer to their offense. None of these moves signal an expansion in Jacobs’ role reducing his chances of meeting his second-round value. He’s being drafted around the following players:

Team situations may be different, but the players taken at similar cost have a better path to targets or touches in their respective offenses. Jacobs may be a fade until we learn more about the Raiders in 2020.

Johnson, Williams, and Mack were all displaced by the draft. The perception is that the team upgraded on their current asset by spending significant draft capital at the position. A perception that may become a reality, but not a full reality. All are in the final year of their deals and were a large part of their offenses the prior year. As their ADPs fall, their cost could reach a palatable point for drafting. The fantasy community might be out on them as viable assets but adding them later in your build would be stronger than throwing darts at other prospects.

Wide Receiver

Wide receiver becomes even trickier than running back. Quarterbacks have switched teams and coordinators are putting together new schemes for the season. For a position that requires timing, coordination, and rapport, there’s not a lot of time to develop any of those skills. Free agents and rookies are similarly impacted, but there’s some optimism for some assuming each squad can get up to speed throughout the offseason.