Post-NFL Draft Dynasty Winners & Losers

This article was written by Derek Brown.

The NFL Draft is a roller-coaster stock market ride in dynasty fantasy football. The draft can raise, lower, and bury dynasty values in an instant. Ingesting seven rounds of draft picks for all 32 teams and their meaning takes time, and while there is still plenty of time for further things to change here are early winners and losers from the 2020 NFL Draft.

Winners

Quarterbacks

Dak Prescott, Cowboys

Dak has a war chest of receiving weapons to throw to with Amari Cooper, Ezekiel Elliott, Tony Pollard, Blake Jarwin, Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb falling into the Cowboys’ lap. Even with Mike McCarthy arriving in town, don’t expect the Cowboys to stop chucking the rock. In two of McCarthy’s final three seasons with the Packers, his offenses finished in the top five in passing attempts and top nine in passing yards.

Drew Lock, Broncos

One man’s loss is another man’s gain (see Noah Fant below). Drew Lock woke up the morning of April 26th, backstroking in draft day riches like Scrooge McDuck. The Broncos added three players in Jerry Jeudy, K.J. Hamler and Albert Okwuegbunam that will give defenses fits in Pat Shurmur’s vertical passing attack. Drew was already locked and loaded for passing volume this season under Shurmur. Shurmur has finished top 12 in the NFL in passing attempts in seven of his 11 seasons as a coordinator or head coach.

Derek Carr, Raiders

The Raiders walk out of the draft surrounding Derek Carr with arguably the best set of skill players he has ever had. Carr now has Henry Ruggs, Hunter Renfrow, Tyrell Williams, Darren Waller, Lynn Bowden and Bryan Edwards at his disposal. Carr has only one top-12 fantasy quarterback season under his belt. Carr will never be mistaken as a world-beater, but he is coming off career highs in completion percentage (70.4%) and yards per attempt (7.9).

Running Backs

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Chiefs

Clyde Edwards-Helaire gets the juice of a late first-round pick tying him to a Patrick Mahomes-led offense for possibly the next five years. For as good as Damien Williams was last year, he, along with every other runner not named Darwin Thompson, is a free agent after the 2020 season. The starting running back in an Andy Reid led offense has finished as a top 20 running back in 16 of the last 20 years. Zooming in further, Reid has had two runners in the last four years that have started 14 or more games (Spencer Ware and Kareem Hunt). Those two backs averaged 16.2 rushing attempts and 3.5 targets per game.

Jonathan Taylor, Colts

Jonathan Taylor lands in a dream scenario in Indy. Taylor behind the top-10 offensive line of the Colts isn’t fair. The Colts have proven over the last two years that they want a primary workhorse to carry the load. Marlon Mack did the heavy lifting for Indy over the last two years, handling 71.4% of the rushing attempts during his games played (26 games). With Mack set to be a free agent after this year, Taylor will be the new Clydesdale in 2020.

J.K. Dobbins, Ravens

J.K. Dobbins lands on a Baltimore team that is committed to doing one thing quite often, and that is running the ball. The Ravens led the NFL in rushing attempts and rushing yards last season and under Greg Roman that isn’t changing anytime soon. Gus Edwards handled 8.75 touches per game while rushing for over 700 yards. Those numbers are within Dobbins' reach this year, given the context of the offense and his talent.

Cam Akers, Rams

Cam Akers falls into a fantastic situation with the Rams in the second round. Akers is an athletic back that can play on all three downs. Much has been made about the quality of line Akers will run behind, but count me in the court of opinion that believes it is closer to average than abysmal. The Rams were 19th in adjusted line yards while springing their backs to the second level at the 14th-highest rate per Football Outsiders. The Rams, however, were 29th in open field yards, which I am firmly chalking up to a dusty Todd Gurley and his 39th ranked yards-per-touch mark per Player Profiler. If the Rams blockers are even average, Akers has a low-end RB2 floor with a Mount Everest sized ceiling.

Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Buccaneers

Ronald Jones followed up his face plant of a rookie season with a middling effort in year two. Jones didn't play nearly well enough for him to keep Tampa Bay from addressing the position in the draft. Ke'Shawn Vaughn's third-round draft equity gives him juice to come in and compete for the starter's role from day one. Vaughn's a tough one-cut runner that can hold up in pass protection and be functional in the passing game, as evidenced by his 28 receptions in 2019 at Vanderbilt.

Kenyan Drake, Cardinals

The offseason winds have been whispering that the Cardinals have been kicking around extending Kenyan Drake. The draft propped up their faith in him by not spending a pick until the seventh round (7.08) on the position with Eno Benjamin. Drake was also dealt an assist with the Cardinals adding offensive tackle Josh Jones in the third round. Jones was projected by many as a late first or early second-round pick. Jones bolsters an offensive line that was already a top ten unit at getting their runners into the second level of opposing defenses. Last season, the Cardinals' front five ranked eighth in second-level yards and ninth in open field yards per Football Outsiders.

Wide Receivers

Denzel Mims, Jets

Walking into next season, Denzel Mims could be viewed as the New York Jets alpha receiver. Breshad Perriman is on a one-year deal. Jamison Crowder can be cut after this season and save the Jets roughly $10 million against the cap. Mims and the Jets' offensive line improvements could be the Ghostbusters that Sam Darnold needs.

Tee Higgins, Bengals

After seeing his stock dip some after underwhelming testing numbers, Tee Higgins had a dream scenario play out on Day 2 of the NFL Draft. With the Bengals taking Higgins with the first pick of the second round, he now finds himself tied to the sky-high ceiling of Joe Burrow for the next four years. The Cincinnati receiver room is primed for some changes. John Ross is a possible free agent after 2020 unless the Bengals pick up his fifth-year option. A.J. Green is playing on a franchise tag for 2020. If Tyler Boyd is cut before the 2021 season, the Bengals eat only $4.2 million in dead cap and save roughly $5.6 million against the cap. Jameis Winston level squinting isn’t required to see Higgins at the top of the Bengals depth chart as soon as 2021.

Miles Boykin, Ravens

Baltimore addressed the wide receiver position in the draft but not until the third and sixth rounds with their selections of Devin Duvernay and James Proche. Both Duvernay and Proche stand approximately 5’10” 200 pounds. Both players were predominantly slot receivers during their final collegiate seasons. Boykin brings a different skill set to the table. Boykin stands at 6’4” and excelled last year on a small sample size as an outside wide receiver. Boykin finished his rookie season playing 92.8% of his snaps on the outside, notching a 59% catch rate (22 targets), three touchdowns, and a 128.4 quarterback rating when targeted.

N’Keal Harry, Patriots

Outside of their second-round selection of Mohamed Sanu, the Patriots did nothing to address their receiving core (I couldn’t resist). In all seriousness, though, New England’s only additions to the passing game in the draft were a pair of third-round tight ends. These moves (or lack thereof) scream that Bill Belichick has faith in N’Keal Harry helping Julian Edelman carry this passing game.

Tight End

Mike Gesicki, Dolphins

Mike Gesicki will look to build off the career-high 89 targets he saw last season. The Dolphin's only aerial addition was a wide receiver in the seventh round (Malcolm Perry). Gesicki is more slot receiver than tight end after playing in the slot nearly 70% of his snaps in 2019. That margin is astronomical considering other top receiving tight ends play in the slot roughly 40%-50% of snaps on average. As recently as his last stop with the Jets, Chan Gailey funneled a large portion of his passing offense through Quincy Enunwa and Eric Decker via the slot. Gesicki should reprise his role as the number two option behind DeVante Parker this year.

Losers

Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers, Packers

At this point, is there a more obvious call? Instead of addressing Rodgers’s pass-catching core, the Packers drafted his heir apparent, LeGarrette Blount 2.0 (A.J. Dillon), and a tight end in the top three rounds. The Packers emptying all barrels into a run-first, run-second, and (audible into) run on third down old school offense is swift kick below the discount double-check belt of Rodgers. The Packers finished 16th in passing attempts, 17th in passing yards, and 14th in passing touchdowns last season. That outlook is bleak for everyone not named Davante Adams.

Running Backs

Aaron Jones, Packers

The Packers just drafted a statement to Aaron Jones that he will not be resigned after 2020. Jones is coming off a season in which he stayed healthy for all 16 games and racked up over 1,500 total yards and 19 touchdowns. The Packers selection of A.J. Dillon is like the breakup letter that has been signed and sealed but not yet delivered.

Sophomore Hopefuls

Pour one out for sophomores Devin Singletary and Darrell Henderson because the draft dealt some harsh realities for these two. Singletary’s false hope to be a workhorse for the Bills was extinguished once they burned third round capital on Zack Moss. Last year, Henderson was 2018 Ronald Jones and now has little hope of becoming 2019 Ronald Jones. Speaking of the artist formerly known as Ron Jones, Bruce Arians didn’t need a real game to park him firmly on the bench for 2020.

Veteran Hopefuls

Damien Williams, Marlon Mack, and Kerryon Johnson also had their hopes of 2020 prominence snuffed out in a split second. Barring an injury to the Chief's new first-round running back, Williams will find it challenging to carve much more than a breather role in Kansas City. At his floor, Jonathan Taylor is a rich man's Marlon Mack. Frank Reich has not trusted Mack heavily in the passing game up to this point. Projecting any role for Mack in the passing game is drawing conclusions from data points that don’t exist. If looking above, D'Andre Swift is not listed among the winners, and yet we find Kerryon Johnson listed amongst the losers. Detroit likely forms a frustrating committee where Swift is conceivably the leader given his draft capital. This buries any prayers of Kerryon's talent overcoming Matt Patricia's Patriot-Esque tendencies.

James Conner, Steelers

James Conner is coming off an injury-marred 2019 in which the Steelers employed a committee of sorts. Conner being a former third-round pick himself, does not carry the draft pedigree to entirely discount the Steelers selection of Anthony McFarland Jr. in the middle of the fourth round. Conner is set for free agency after the 2020 season. With the Steelers staring at the tenth lowest cap space number in the NFL in 2021, the starter’s chair could be a battle to monitor.

David Montgomery, Bears

The Bears traded up during last year’s draft to nab David Montgomery only to stack a bottom-five offensive line in front of him. The Bears were 29th in adjusted line yards in 2019 per Football Outsiders. Montgomery was given the volume last season to be a productive runner, but not the blocking unit to open holes for him. Most runners need at least an average offensive line to be valuable to high-end fantasy assets. Running backs like the 14th percentile SPARQ athlete, Montgomery, need a tad more blocking assistance. In response to all of these factors, the Bears chose not to address the line until the seventh round, thus condemning Montgomery to another season filled with maddeningly inefficient volume.

Wide Receivers

Dede Westbrook, Jaguars

The hype and production of Dede Westbrook have never met in the middle. With the Jaguars taking Laviska Shenault in the second round, Westbrook might be out of chances to fulfill those hopes. Going back to college, Shenault’s production in 2019 dipped as he was asked to play more as an outside wide receiver. In 2018, Shenault was at the height of his powers topping 1,000 receiving yards with six touchdowns. In that season, Shenault ran nearly half of his routes from the slot. While Shenault’s route running and releases off the line need work, his explosiveness and yards after the catch ability are not in question. Allowing Shenault to lean on his athleticism and beat up on slot corners can be a cheat code for Jay Gruden in 2020.

Alshon Jeffery, Eagles

After the draft, the Eagles general manager Howie Roseman said, "We want to throw the ball down the field. We don't want to be station-to-station football." The Eagles came through on that promise after drafting burners Jalen Reagor, Quez Watkins, and John Hightower. Add in that Philly has underneath assets galore in Miles Sanders, Boston Scott, Zach Ertz, and Dallas Goedert. The equation for Alshon Jeffery to maintain his previous volume becomes a difficult one to solve. With Jeffery also coming off Lisfranc surgery, his 2020 outlook is dim, and his fate as a 2021 cut candidate all but sealed.

Tight Ends

Blake Jarwin, Cowboys

The Dallas Cowboys walked into the draft with 190 vacated targets up for grabs with the departures of Randall Cobb, Tavon Austin, and Jason Witten. Those targets went up in smoke with the first-round selection of CeeDee Lamb. While Lamb is not going to soak up that entire pie, the ascension of Blake Jarwin has been mortally wounded. Tony Pollard could also see an uptick on his 20 targets last season, thus further hindering Jarwin. The Blake Jarwin breakout party was broken up by the parents before it even began.

Noah Fant, Broncos

Noah Fant’s second year climb up the tight end ranks is on life support. Last year with Lock Fant saw his overall target share dip from 14.7%t to 8.9% and his red-zone target share drop from 13.6% to 11.1%. Now pile on top of those distressing numbers the fact that the Broncos added route running maven Jerry Jeudy, the explosive play tiny tin can K.J. Hamler, and seam matchup nightmare Albert Okwuegbunam. The hope for Fant is quickly becoming a fading mirage.