Week 12 NFL Betting Picks: Player Props

Nov 28, 2020

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Week 11 Recap: Week 11 was solid, profiting nearly three units on the week. We were fortunate Jalen Reagor hit the over on his receiving prop on the last drive for the Eagles, but I’ll take it after some of the bad beats earlier in the season. The Eagles decided to run Boston Scott a bunch in the first half, giving him five carries and busting our under fairly quickly. Then they didn’t give him a single carry afterward, almost like they knew. Auden Tate’s prop had pretty much no chance of hitting after Joe Burrow went down as his replacement, Ryan Finley, led the team to just 25 yards of offense. While Week 11 was profitable, Thanksgiving felt like Micheal Jordan’s flu game. We straight up couldn’t miss—4-0 on player props, 2-0 on sides, 1-0 on team totals and a nice 34x Pointsbet cash to top it all off. All of the plays were either discussed on Move The Line or in the Discord chat.

I’ll say it pretty much every week, but if you aren’t already in the Discord chat, you are missing out on a lot of closing line value as well as all my island game plays. Every Thursday and Friday, I post any opening lines that jump out to me I think our subscribers should bet as soon as possible because they will likely move. I’ve already dropped a bunch of props in there, including Sterling Shepard over 4.5 receptions—which opened at +108 and is now all the way up to -159. With a lot of injuries up in the air, a ton of props haven’t been posted yet. It will likely be a busy weekend in the Discord, where the rest of our plays will be posted.

Week 12 FanDuel Player Prop Bets

Mike Davis Under 28.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

I’m not entirely sure what happened midseason but Mike Davis suddenly became much less involved in the passing game after Carolina's Week 6 win over Atlanta. Maybe the Panthers realized Davis isn’t Christian McCaffrey? Either way, prior to Week 6, Davis had no fewer than six targets in four games (8, 9, 6, 10). Since then, he hasn’t cracked six targets and is averaging just 3.83 targets per game. His yards dipped as well, averaging 51.5 in the first four games and just 16.5 in the past six. I think the past six games are a better representation of Mike Davis’s current role that we will see on Sunday. Looking specifically at this number, Davis has only recorded more than 27 receiving yards once in the aforementioned six-game stretch. What’s interesting is two of the times he has gone over this number are in games where McCaffrey played and Davis was strictly used in a pass-catching role or alongside McCaffrey. Obviously, McCaffrey is going to get more attention than Davis so it logically makes sense that Davis could have a relatively big day receiving. Looking only at the eight games Davis started, he has recorded less than 28.5 receiving yards in six of them. We have Davis projected for 18.5 receiving yards and I would bet this down to 25.

Risk: 1.10 units to win 1 unit