NFL Week 14 Betting Picks: Against the Spread

Dec 11, 2020

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NFL Week 13 Recap: It was another 2-1 week against the spread, as the Patriots (PK at Chargers) and Rams (-3 at Cardinals) covered easily, while the Titans (-5.5) was the dud pick. After starting the season 4-8-1 ATS in the month of September, I’m happy about the 16-11-1 ATS (59%) record since Week 5. My goal for the season is always 60%. While there’s certainly work to do (I’m 20-18-2 ATS through Week 13), it’s also not out of our reach either.

157 Arizona Cardinals at 158 New York Giants

Spread: Cardinals -3
O/U: 45
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, December 13

As of this writing, it’s uncertain whether or not Giants quarterback Daniel Jones (hamstring) will suit up against the Cardinals, but I have no problem fading Arizona regardless of who starts for New York.

These two teams have been trending in opposite directions since Week 9. Over that span, the Cardinals are 1-4, averaging 25.8 points per game (PPG) while allowing 30.0 PPG. Arizona’s only victory since Week 9 was its “Hail Murray” over Buffalo. Otherwise, the Cardinals wouldn’t have a win in over a month and they’d be completely out of a playoff spot.

Meanwhile, the Giants are a perfect 4-0 since Week 9, which includes last week’s win over the Seahawks in Seattle (the upset of the year). Over that span, Big Blue has scored just 21.5 points per game, but have held opponents to just 16.5 PPG. They also have just two turnovers and 10 takeaways in their last four games.

Opponents have seemingly figured out how to defend Kyler Murray. After blitzing Murray on just 17% of his dropbacks in the Cardinals’ first seven games, opponents have blitzed the second-year quarterback on 35% of his dropbacks over Arizona’s last five contests. Murray completed 69% of his passes in the first seven games, but has completed just 53% of his passes the last five games. His yards per attempt have also dropped from 7.7 to 5.8, while his Total QBR has gone from 96 over his first seven games to 68 over his last five games.

Given what has transpired over the past month, why on earth would I lay a field goal on the road with the Cardinals instead of taking a Giants team that has covered in seven of their last 10 games? Hopefully, Jones plays, but Colt McCoy was good enough for the Giants to pull off the upset last Sunday in Seattle. Plus, New York has the better defense and, at least over the past month-plus, the better running game.

NFL Week 14 ATS Pick: New York Giants +3

161 Denver Broncos at 162 Carolina Panthers

Spread: Panthers -3
O/U: 45.5
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, December 13

The No. 1 job of any quarterback at any level is to not turn the ball over. Unfortunately for the Broncos, Drew Lock has been a turnover machine. Over his last eight starts, the second-year signal-caller has 13 interceptions and three fumbles, compared to just eight touchdowns. Lock has a strong arm, is capable of fitting any pass into tight windows, but he misses too many throws and has terrible numbers when under pressure (think Mitch Trubisky and Dwayne Haskins terrible).