Week 16 NFL Betting Picks: Player Props

Dec 26, 2020

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Week 15 Recap: We had another great outing last week, going 15-8 and adding 7.28 units to the bank. What’s crazy is we should have had an even better week than we did. Heading into the afternoon slate on Sunday, we were sitting pretty with both Alvin Kamara over 5.5 receptions and 48.5 receiving yards in hand. Both had great closing line value (closed at 6.5 receptions and 55 receiving yards), Drew Brees was starting and Michael Thomas was out. Kamara had gone over both numbers in 5-of-6 games without Thomas and with Brees. Despite all that working in our favor, Kamara fell short. Losing an over feels bad, but nothing feels worse than losing an under on the last drive. Both Darius Slayton and D.J. Moore managed to achieve that. We were winning their unders for the entire game but both of them caught two passes a piece on the final drive of the game, destroying the unders. Thinking about this makes me even more frustrated, so let's just move on.

We already got down on a bunch of bets for Saturday and Sunday on Discord. We have had a lot of issues with props getting steamed quickly that I put out on Friday and Saturday, so we made it possible for our subscribers to receive push notifications to their phone or computer whenever I post a play. To access this feature on Discord, go to “Role Assign” and hit the money bag sign under the “Weekly Prop Plays” post! On to Week 16…

Week 16 FanDuel Player Prop Bets

J.K. Dobbins Over 62.5 Rushing Yards (-112)

J.K. Dobbins started seeing more work in Week 11, coinciding with Mark Ingram’s disappearance. Dobbins has stat lines of 15/70, 11/71, 13/53, and 14/64 in that span. He has only gone under the number of 62.5 rushing yards in one of those four games. He now draws a juicy matchup against a faltering New York Giants run defense. The Giants' season-long metrics look okay on the surface, but over the past seven weeks, they are just 20th in rush EPA allowed. The Ravens being heavy 10.5-point favorites only enhances Dobbins’s outlook when considering Baltimore's propensity to run the ball in positive game script. We have Dobbins projected for 84.0 rushing yards—more than 20 yards over his prop.

Risk: 1.12 units to win 1 unit

Week 16 DraftKings Player Prop Bets

Malcolm Brown Over 19.5 Rushing Yards (-118)

Cam Akers had ascended into a feature role the past few weeks, leaving Malcolm Brown and Darrell Henderson as the No. 2 and No. 3 running backs, respectively. With Akers out, Brown and Henderson are expected to share the workload against Seattle this week. It’s tough to read into any splits with Brown, Henderson and Akers all spending time as the featured back this season—and Akers struggling to break out until later in the season. The truth of the matter is we don’t know who will be the feature back this week, or if there will even be one. Most are assuming Henderson will be the No. 1 back but it’s certainly possible Brown and Henderson split carries entirely and Brown ends up with 10-12 carries. In that case, he easily crushes this number. If he is the No. 2 back and records 6-8 carries, he should still hit as long as he continues to average over 4.0 yards per carry. We have Brown projected for 37.0 rushing yards on eight carries here.

Risk: 1.18 units to win 1 unit