Week 5 NFL Betting Picks: Against the Spread

Oct 09, 2020

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Week 4 Recap: I’m not going to sugarcoat the situation: My picks for 4for4 this season have been total crap. It would be disingenuous for me to try to convince readers otherwise.

If you clicked on this link, you either A) know I have a track record of winning so you’re sticking with me or B) are new to 4for4’s betting content. For those who fall into "Category A", I appreciate you sticking with me through a rough first quarter. I will turn this around. For those who fall into "Category B", first off, welcome, second, you’ll see that my ATS record to start the year is horrendous. Last week, I took the home dog Bears against the Colts and Chicago barely mustered 11 points in a 19-11 defeat. I backed the 49ers as a home favorite against the Eagles on Sunday night and they lost outright. Finally, I pushed with the Ravens as a 14-point road favorite at Washington—yet another example of why I rarely back double-digit favorites. Baltimore won comfortably and it still didn’t result in a winning ticket. The 0-2-1 week dropped my season record to a pathetic 4-8-1.

This is an important reminder to not go on tilt and to not chase when you’re losing. I’ll heed my own advice and take things week by week, starting with this Sunday. Let’s get back on track.

451 Carolina Panthers at 452 Atlanta Falcons

Spread: Falcons -1.5
O/U: 53.5
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET, October 11, 2020

A year ago, the Falcons started their season 1-7, and there was speculation head coach Dan Quinn wouldn’t last through the team’s Week 9 bye week. The players, however, convinced owner Arthur Blank to ride out the situation with Quinn and he responded by retaining the coach through the rest of the season. The Falcons circled the wagons in the second half by posting a 6-2 record over their last eight games to finish 7-9 on the year. Clearly, the players had not given up on Quinn and thus, Blank stuck with him for the 2020 season.

I don’t see lightning striking twice for Quinn. The Falcons suffered a plethora of injuries both leading up to, as well as during their 30-16 loss to the Packers on Monday night, specifically in their secondary. However, Green Bay was without multiple receivers, which led to Matt LaFleur and Aaron Rodgers leaning heavily on their running backs and tight ends. The result was the Falcons falling apart, then dropping to 0-4. The Packers overcame their adversity, then soared to 4-0 on the season. That’s coaching. That’s veteran leadership.

The fourth-quarter collapses make for great jokes and historic memes, but they’re also proof of how defeat has crept its way into the Falcons’ culture under Quinn. I don’t see this team circling the wagons this time around. Poor starts, failed second-half adjustments and horrendous fourth-quarter collapses are just part of the fabric right now for the Falcons, who must rebuild at some point, starting with a new head coach.

As for Sunday, the 2-2 Panthers aren’t as bad as what many projected the team would be coming into the season. Teddy Bridgewater continues to prove he’s a more-than-capable starter who can keep Carolina competitive while the front office restocks the roster. Even without stud Christian McCaffrey, the Panthers have won back-to-back games—both as underdogs—the past two weeks. In fact, this team is one defensive stop in the fourth quarter against the Raiders in Week 1 from being 3-1.

I’ll take the team that isn’t currently searching for answers in what is yet another lost season under the guidance of their lost head coach.

NFL Week 5 ATS Pick: Carolina Panthers +1.5

467 Cincinnati Bengals at 468 Baltimore Ravens

Spread: Ravens -13
O/U: 51
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, October 11, 2020

I’m not going to try to convince you the Ravens are flawed or that somehow the Bengals are underrated. No, this is a pure points grab. Believe it or not, the Bengals are 4-1 against the spread in their last five meetings with the Ravens and 5-1 against the number in their last six trips to Baltimore. The underdog in this series, which is usually Cincinnati, is also 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings between these two teams.