Week 6 NFL Betting Picks: Against the Spread

Oct 16, 2020

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Week 5 Recap: The Panthers (+1.5 at Atlanta) and Dolphins (+9 at San Francisco) both won outright as road underdogs last Sunday, but the Bengals couldn’t generate much offense and failed to cover as a 13-point dog in Baltimore, costing us an opportunity to sweep. I wrote last week how important it was not to chase after a losing stretch, and after a rough first quarter to the season, the winning week was needed. Now let’s make it two in a row.

255 Atlanta Falcons at 256 Minnesota Vikings

Spread: Vikings -4
O/U: 54
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, October 18, 2020

I faded the Falcons in Week 1, when the Seahawks blew them out in Atlanta, and again last Sunday when the Panthers beat them outright as a small dog. I’ll also be fading the now Dan Quinn-less Birds on Sunday.

The Falcons looked like they gave up two weeks ago on that Monday night in Green Bay. Yes, they were dealing with a slew of injuries in their secondary but 1) they’re still dealing with injuries, and 2) the Packers had their fair share of injuries that night, yet still overcame them in a 30-16 rout. It’s not that Atlanta has been bitten hard by the injury bug, it’s that the team isn’t very good. You see the names Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and Calvin Ridley and expect more, but the fact of the matter is that the front office hasn't drafted well in years. Worse yet, they now have a roster filled with Quinn’s players and will have to start over in what is expected to be a long rebuild.

One of the other issues under Quinn is the team played with zero grit. Everyone remembers the 28-3 meltdown in the Super Bowl but the Falcons were blowing second-half leads under Quinn well before the loss to the Patriots. Whenever their opponent started to punch back, the Falcons had no counter because as much of a motivator Quinn was, he also was a horrendous tactician. Worse yet, he surrounded himself with poor strategists as well, most of whom will be on the sidelines coaching the Falcons this Sunday against the Vikings.

Speaking of the Vikings, they should have handed the Seahawks their first loss last Sunday night in Seattle. They were inches away from picking up a win and while Mike Zimmer’s defense was again wilted on Seattle’s final drive, Russell Wilson has made a career out of doing that to opponents since he arrived in the NFL. Unlike the Falcons, the Vikings don’t look like a team that has quit on their head coach or their season. Even though Minnesota has had its issues defensively this season, keep in mind Atlanta struggled to score 16 points in back-to-back games against Green Bay and Carolina its last two contests. It’s not as if Ryan and Co. are firing on all cylinders right now and if the Falcons aren’t going to score points, their sad-sack defense isn’t going to bail them out.

Dalvin Cook (groin) or no Dalvin Cook, the Vikings have enough to beat a lifeless Falcons team by a field goal-plus this Sunday.

NFL Week 6 ATS Pick: Minnesota Vikings -4

263 Baltimore Ravens at 264 Philadelphia Eagles

Spread: Ravens -7.5
O/U: 47.5
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, October 18, 2020

I faded the Ravens last week and they shoved it where the sun don’t shine but I’m just crazy enough (or is it stupid?) to do it again this Sunday when they travel to Philly.