Week 9 NFL Betting Picks: Against the Spread

Nov 06, 2020

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Week 8 Recap: A three-week winning streak came to a halt last Sunday when I posted a 1-2 record against the spread. The Patriots (+4 at Buffalo) were my only cover, as both the Packers (-6 vs. Minnesota) and Rams (-3 at Miami) laid massive eggs. In hindsight, I focused too much on Tua Tagovailoa struggling in his first NFL start (he did) and not enough on how Brian Flores and his defense owned Sean McVay’s offense three years ago in the Super Bowl. Any team playing the Rams moving forward will certainly try to replicate Miami's ability to force the Rams out of their zero back looks.

The 1-2 week dropped me back to .500—11-11-2 (50.0%) on the season. Let’s get back on track this week.

459 Baltimore Ravens at 460 Indianapolis Colts

Spread: Ravens -1.5
O/U: 48
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, November 8, 2020

I admittedly have gotten away from it at times this season, but one of my more basic betting philosophies is to back good teams coming off losses. It’s rare good teams don’t have good coaching staffs that force their players to regroup quickly and have urgency during their week of preparation following a loss. All of this applies to Baltimore this week.

Lamar Jackson and the Ravens were on the doorstep last Sunday at home against the Steelers and couldn’t find the end zone one last time to pick up a huge win against their biggest rivals. Jackson and Baltimore’s offense don't have the same scoring punch they had a year ago but it’s only a matter of time before the Ravens rediscover their dominant running game.

Granted, that might not happen this week against a Colts team with the No. 2 rush defense in the league (79.9 rush yards allowed per game). The problem for Indianapolis, however, is that Baltimore is also stout against the run. The Ravens allow 100.3 yards per game on the ground, which ranks seventh in the NFL. When the Colts are able to pound the ball on the ground, they take pressure off Philip Rivers, who is still the same quarterback everyone was criticizing for throwing multiple bad interceptions in a Week 1 road loss to the Jaguars.

No team blitzes more than the Ravens, and Rivers no longer has the zip to fit the ball into tight windows. With the amount of pressure Baltimore will throw at him on Sunday, I’m banking on multiple turnovers from Rivers in what could be a disastrous day. If the Colts fall behind early, Baltimore's defense is too good to let Indy back into the game like Cincinnati did two weeks ago after jumping out to a three-score lead in the first half.

NFL ATS Pick: Ravens -1.5