NBA Best Bets: Bet the Pacers Team Total + More NBA Monday Madness
Happy Monday, folks! I know a lot of people have caught something called “March Madness”, but despite the ensuing onslaught of brackets, buzzer beaters and B-grade basketball, the NBA persists. In all seriousness, the NCAA tournament is one of my favorite sporting events despite my general distaste for basketball below the pro level, but we’re not here to talk about that. If you're looking for March Madness content, make sure to check out Connor Allen's March Madness Bracket Strategy article. There are eight games tonight to attack, featuring some of the best the Association has to offer. Let’s dive in and get things headed in the right direction.
Projections for March 15, 2021
| Projection Based on Full Season | Projection Based on Last 10 Games | Odds | ROI Season to Date | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Road Streak |
Back to Back? | 3rd Game in 4 Days? | OFF Rtg | Pace | Team | Spread & Total | EFG% | TO% | OREB% | FT Rate | Oliver % | OFF Rtg | Pace | Team | Spread & Total | EFG% | TO% | OREB% | FT Rate | Oliver % | Spread | Total | Team Total | Opener Spread Units | Closer Spread Units | Opener Over Units | Closer Over Units | |
| MIL | 1 | No | No | 113.56 | 106.08 | 120.47 | (6.64) | 56.8% | 12.6% | 23.1% | 19.4% | 33.4% | 114.67 | 107.79 | 123.59 | (11.67) | 57.5% | 13.3% | 45.5% | 19.7% | 38.4% | -9.5 | 238.5 | 124 | (5.55) | (3.64) | 6.91 | 4.00 |
| WAS | 0 | No | Yes | 106.63 | 106.75 | 113.82 | 234.29 | 52.8% | 12.2% | 19.6% | 20.2% | 31.1% | 104.36 | 107.25 | 111.92 | 235.51 | 52.3% | 12.5% | 47.6% | 20.5% | 36.7% | 114.5 | (0.73) | (0.73) | (0.73) | (0.73) | ||
| SAC | 1 | No | No | 109.53 | 103.24 | 113.08 | 3.46 | 54.8% | 13.0% | 23.6% | 18.3% | 32.6% | 110.03 | 104.49 | 114.97 | 6.67 | 55.2% | 13.1% | 49.3% | 18.6% | 38.0% | 3 | 239 | 118 | (5.55) | (7.45) | 11.64 | 9.73 |
| CHA | 0 | No | No | 112.85 | 103.27 | 116.54 | 229.63 | 55.2% | 12.6% | 23.7% | 19.6% | 32.9% | 115.58 | 105.24 | 121.64 | 236.61 | 57.0% | 13.6% | 45.7% | 21.5% | 38.6% | 121 | 3.09 | 1.18 | 0.27 | 2.18 | ||
| NYK | 2 | No | No | 109.97 | 100.32 | 110.32 | 3.00 | 54.1% | 12.2% | 22.8% | 18.8% | 32.1% | 106.40 | 100.22 | 106.63 | 6.19 | 52.7% | 12.8% | 47.8% | 17.7% | 36.5% | 8 | 225 | 108.5 | 2.09 | 3.00 | (8.45) | (9.36) |
| BKN | 0 | No | No | 112.95 | 100.32 | 113.32 | 223.64 | 56.0% | 11.9% | 20.3% | 20.7% | 32.5% | 113.15 | 99.71 | 112.82 | 219.45 | 56.5% | 11.7% | 49.4% | 19.4% | 38.3% | 116.5 | 1.09 | 1.09 | 4.00 | 8.73 | ||
| SAS | 1 | Yes | Yes | 107.49 | 102.10 | 109.75 | (1.46) | 52.4% | 11.3% | 20.2% | 21.0% | 31.0% | 108.58 | 100.08 | 108.67 | (3.66) | 52.4% | 10.6% | 46.7% | 20.4% | 36.0% | -3.5 | 219.5 | 111.5 | 1.27 | 2.27 | (4.45) | (4.45) |
| DET | 4 | No | No | 106.53 | 101.65 | 108.29 | 218.04 | 52.7% | 12.9% | 22.7% | 18.6% | 31.6% | 105.25 | 99.77 | 105.01 | 213.67 | 51.0% | 12.6% | 45.4% | 19.3% | 35.5% | 108 | 1.18 | 2.18 | (4.55) | (3.64) | ||
| IND | 2 | No | Yes | 108.46 | 102.13 | 110.78 | 1.53 | 53.7% | 12.7% | 22.2% | 19.4% | 32.0% | 109.67 | 103.04 | 113.01 | 3.92 | 53.2% | 12.7% | 45.2% | 19.8% | 36.5% | 5 | 225.5 | 110.25 | (9.27) | (8.36) | 8.82 | 4.09 |
| DEN | 0 | No | Yes | 110.69 | 101.46 | 112.31 | 223.09 | 55.4% | 12.7% | 21.8% | 19.0% | 32.5% | 115.24 | 101.46 | 116.92 | 229.93 | 56.5% | 13.4% | 47.3% | 19.3% | 38.3% | 115.25 | (4.64) | (6.55) | 1.09 | 4.00 | ||
| LAC | 1 | Yes | No | 113.73 | 100.91 | 114.76 | (3.30) | 55.0% | 11.9% | 22.4% | 19.2% | 32.3% | 111.93 | 99.57 | 111.44 | 1.38 | 55.3% | 11.6% | 47.0% | 16.2% | 36.8% | -1.5 | 227.5 | 114.5 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| DAL | 2 | No | No | 110.33 | 101.02 | 111.45 | 226.21 | 54.6% | 11.4% | 19.5% | 18.8% | 31.4% | 115.05 | 98.06 | 112.82 | 224.27 | 56.3% | 10.2% | 51.3% | 18.2% | 38.1% | 113 | (5.55) | (5.55) | (3.64) | (3.64) | ||
| MEM | 1 | Yes | Yes | 108.89 | 102.75 | 111.89 | 0.83 | 53.1% | 11.9% | 22.7% | 19.5% | 31.7% | 106.97 | 104.39 | 111.66 | 3.18 | 52.2% | 12.2% | 47.8% | 18.3% | 36.2% | 7 | 228 | 110.5 | 2.18 | 1.27 | (5.45) | (4.45) |
| PHX | 0 | No | No | 111.06 | 101.50 | 112.72 | 224.61 | 56.1% | 13.3% | 20.2% | 19.7% | 32.8% | 110.98 | 103.49 | 114.85 | 226.51 | 56.4% | 13.1% | 47.4% | 20.0% | 38.3% | 117.5 | 8.82 | 9.82 | (2.64) | (0.73) | ||
| LAL | 0 | No | No | 105.80 | 102.34 | 108.28 | 1.48 | 52.0% | 13.2% | 22.4% | 21.9% | 31.9% | 106.46 | 102.73 | 109.36 | 0.61 | 52.4% | 13.5% | 45.4% | 22.4% | 36.8% | -2.5 | 222.5 | 112.5 | (4.64) | (2.73) | (10.36) | (10.36) |
| GSW | 0 | Yes | No | 105.74 | 103.80 | 109.76 | 218.04 | 53.3% | 12.9% | 18.8% | 18.2% | 31.0% | 104.92 | 104.82 | 109.98 | 219.34 | 53.4% | 13.7% | 45.7% | 19.4% | 36.8% | 110 | 0.09 | (1.82) | (1.82) | (3.73) | ||
LEGEND
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EFG% (Effective Field Goal Percentage)= (FG + 0.5 * 3P)/FGA
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TOV% (Turnover Percentage) = TOV/(FGA + 0.44 * FTA + TOV)
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OREB% = ORB / (ORB + Opp DRB)
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FT Rate = FT/FGA
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Oliver % = Shooting (40%) + Turnovers (25%) + Rebounding (20%) + Free Throws (15%)
Best NBA Bets of the Day (March 15, 2021)
Charlotte Hornets -3.5 vs. Sacramento Kings
Charlotte has a clean bill of health and Sacramento will be without Hassan Whiteside, so there are little-to-no adjustments to make for missing players, and neither team is on a back-to-back or has played in three of their last four games. De'Aaron Fox is likely the best player on the floor, but the Hornets have the best 2-3 players in LaMelo Ball, Gordon Hayward and Terry Rozier. In general, I’m a much bigger fan of the Hornets' roster. Harrison Barnes, Tyrese Haliburton and Buddy Hield are good, but things get rough when the second unit takes the floor. The Hornets are able to keep one of Ball, Hayward and Rozier on the floor while bringing in Devonte’ Graham, Malik Monk and Miles Bridges. The Kings are playing Cory Joseph 21 minutes a night and will have to fill 16 minutes of Glenn Robinson III with guys like DaQuan Jeffries or Kyle Guy. They played in late February and despite losing the turnover battle by six, Charlotte’s bench made up the difference to get the Hornets the win in Sacramento.
My projections have the Hornets by -6.6 based on recent performance and even that is a little understated. In general, when you have an Eastern Conference team playing a Western Conference team, you want to be on the Western Conference squad, but Sacramento is at the bottom of that barrel. I think the market has the Western Conference edge built into the number, giving us an advantage.
Risk: 1.1 units on the Charlotte Hornets -3.5 on DraftKings to win 1 unit.
Indiana Pacers Team Total Over 110.5 Points
The Pacers continue life without T.J. Warren, who would be helpful guarding Jamal Murray or Michael Porter Jr. The Nuggets are missing Gary Harris and Monte Morris—less than ideal in a matchup against Malcolm Brogdan and Caris LeVert. Overall, Denver has the better roster and the best player in Nikola Jokic, but Indiana still presents challenges. Domontas Sabonis and Myles Turner can stay in front of Jokic, as well as anyone else, while the aforementioned Indiana guards should have plenty of good chances to score.
My projections have this game a little closer than the number. I already laid out the case for this being a close game, but I’m going to stay away from the spread. Denver is at home with one of the few homecourt advantages in the league. Combine that with the Nuggets' star power advantage and things could get out of hand. There is another edge I like better—the Pacers' team total. It looks to me like LeVert’s return hasn’t been adjusted for in that number. Denver might win by a lot, but the Pacers should put up a big number themselves.
Risk: 1.15 units on Indiana Pacers team total over 110.5 points on FanDuel to win 1 unit.
Memphis Grizzlies +7 at Phoenix Suns
Both teams are playing with their full squads tonight. Jaren Jackson Jr. is out, but he’s been out all season. The Suns have the better top-end talent with Devin Booker, Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton, but the Grizzlies' roster has Ja Morant and depth that can counter some of what the Suns offer. They also have a few wing defenders who can at least make Booker’s life tough and not fall for Paul’s trickery. Ayton is the most talented big man on the floor, but Jonas Valanciunas will get his points against Ayton, and Brandon Clarke will run him through the pick-and-roll ringer and work Ayton on the offensive glass.
Memphis is at a rest disadvantage on the back-to-back and will be playing their third game in four nights. I’m less concerned than I would normally be because of their younger roster and recent break. They’ve split the two games they’ve played this season and my projections have the number lower than the +7 available. Phoenix is in a bounce-back spot after losing as favorites to Indiana, but so is Memphis after a tight loss in Oklahoma City. Phoenix has been a bet-on team all season, but Memphis is 6-2 against the spread in their last eight and have been profitable when Morant plays.
Risk: 1.1 units on the Memphis Grizzlies +7 on Fanduel to win 1 unit.
Quick Slate Rundown (March 15, 2021)
*All lines are from FanDuel at the time of publication.
Washington Wizards +9 vs. Milwaukee Bucks
It's Washington or pass for me, and this is a pass. It’s a three-in-four situation for the Wizards, and Milwaukee has been playing with Jrue Holiday back and the team has gotten more comfortable with their new defensive switches. My projections like Milwaukee, but the backdoor is always wide open when going against Washington.
Brooklyn Nets -8 vs. New York Knicks
No Derrick Rose, no Mitchell Robinson, Elfrid Payton is doubtful and Immanuel Quickley is playing with a groin injury. Oh boy. These are not the players you want missing from your lineup if you're the New York Knicks, especially not while playing the Brooklyn Nets. That said, I’m not pulling the trigger on the Nets at this big of a number.
San Antonio Spurs -3.5 at Detroit Pistons
San Antonio started their Eastern Conference road trip by getting smoked in Philadelphia. Derrick White is out tonight, meaning we’ll see a lot of Patty Mills—and that’s not a good thing. I wanted to bet on the Spurs here, but there are just too many questions about how head coach Gregg Popovich has been using his roster the past few games. He’s been giving a lot of minutes to guys like Mills and Rudy Gay, despite having younger players like Lonnie Walker IV and Devin Vassell available.
Los Angeles Clippers -1.5 at Dallas Mavericks
The Clippers got crushed by the Pelicans last night. Kawhi Leonard called out the entire team’s level of focus and effort. Is that going to motivate the team to win or make everyone upset? I like the matchup for the Clippers, but my projections are close to the number and I’m not sure what’s going on in the Clippers' locker room.
Golden State Warriors +2.5 vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Golden State is on a back-to-back after a big win over Utah last night. Even though the Lakers continue to struggle without Anthony Davis, the Warriors don’t have great options to slow down LeBron James. Things are just too murky for me to discern any value.
For the most up-to-date picks check out my Twitter or subscribe to our Discord. This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks (and those from the rest of the betting staff) on the year. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.
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