NBA Player Prop Bets: Ride the Jimmy Butler Heat Wave
There’s no letting up in the second half of this season, so we’re blessed with a nine-game Sunday slate. Eleven of today's 18 teams are playing their third game in four nights—four of them are on the second night of a back-to-back. Make sure to double-check the latest injury/rest information before placing any bets. With that said, let’s make it a profitable Sunday.
*Betting lines accurate at the time of publication.
FanDuel Player Props (March 14, 2021)
Jimmy Butler Over 23.5 Points (-112)
Don’t look now, but the Miami Heat are up to fourth place in the Eastern Conference. A lot of that recent offensive load has fallen on the shoulders of Jimmy Butler. In his last seven games (with two games missed mixed in), Butler has averaged 26.1 points on 16.9 field-goal attempts and 10.3 free throw attempts. Before that, Butler averaged 19.1 points per game on 13.6 field-goal attempts and 8.0 free throw attempts.
It’s a significant uptick that has stood the test of lineup turmoil. Goran Dragic, an important facilitator for Miami, returned seven games ago, and Bam Adebayo has missed the last three games with left knee tendinitis. In his last seven games, Butler’s touches have increased from 76.2 to 84.3—and in the last three games since Adebayo has been out of the lineup, that number has gone even higher to 86.3. That number is 10th in the entire league in that time frame.
Butler and the Heat face the beat-up Orlando Magic tonight, who will be without Evan Fournier, James Ennis, Aaron Gordon, and possibly Terrence Ross. The options to attempt and slow down Butler will be extremely limited.
Even in a game with a low total of 210 points, Butler has gone over this 23.5 points line in six of his last seven games, and the 31.3% usage over that time doesn’t lie.
Risk: 1.12 units on FanDuel to win 1 unit.
Zion Williamson Over 3.5 Assists (-104)
There are plenty of reasons to justify this, but on the surface, betting Zion Williamson overs is just fun. This number had been at 4.5 or 5.5 for a while. However, after Williamson missed the Pelicans' game against the Heat and then two huge blowouts that threw the rotation off and skewed the results, the market has backpedaled on Williamson’s playmaking.
On the season, Williamson is averaging 3.3 assists per game, but in the 20 games since the Pelicans got out of their funk (eight losses in nine games funk) and focused the offense more around Williamson, he’s averaged 4.6 assists per game. Over the last nine games before missing that one game against the Heat, that number ticked up to 4.9.
The last two Pelicans games were both decided by 30+ points, limiting Williamson to 47 combined minutes—he normally averages 32.6 minutes per game. The other contrasts between the last two games and the previous nine Williamson played in are stark as well.
In his last two games, Williamson is receiving 31 passes per game and making 23 passes. He had only had 2.5 potential assists in that span. He averaged 46.2 passes received, 41.8 passes made and 8.2 potential assists in the previous nine games. Trusting the larger sample size seems prudent, considering the odd game script in the most recent two.
Nicolas Batum is no All-NBA level defender and not known for his physicality per se, so that bodes well for Williamson being able to dictate terms. Williamson has gone over this number in nine of his previous 11 games, so trust the larger sample.
Risk: 1.04 units on FanDuel to win 1 unit.
Anthony Edwards Under 3.5 Assists (+104)
Betting an under on such a small number can be nerve-wracking but a good Sunday sweat never hurts anyone. You always have to look for circumstances changing around a player that would cause his profile to vary—we have that with Anthony Edwards.
What changed for Edwards and the Timberwolves was the suspension of starting guard Malik Beasley. Beasley isn’t exactly bashful, leaving 16.7 shots per game available with his absence. Edwards, who isn’t bashful himself, has more than willingly jumped into the secondary scorer’s role behind Karl-Anthony Towns.
To be fair to the rookie, looking at the 16 games since Edwards entered the starting lineup, he averaged 36.2 passes on 39.3 passes received, with 5.9 potential assists and 15.1 shots per game. The 15 shots per game are nothing to sneeze at but Edwards was the third offensive banana. In the five games since Beasley’s suspension began, Edwards's numbers have changed to 34.0 passes on 46.4 passes received, with 4.6 potential assists and 21.4 shots.
Basically, Edwards got the green light and the ball is going up. This number looks intimidating to take an under on but consider that Edwards was averaging only 3.6 assists per game prior to his role change. Since Beasley's suspension, Edwards’s assists per game have been cut in half to 1.8, and he has recorded less than 3.5 assists in every game.
While with Zion Williamson, we pushed against the small sample size, there is a tangible reason (Beasley's suspension) why Edwards's small sample is worth giving more credence.
Risk: 1 unit on FanDuel to win 1.04 units.
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