Underdog ADP Risers & Fallers and Cheap Stacks to Target

May 14, 2021

Jamie Sabau/Getty Images

The NFL Draft wrapped up on May 1 and with landing spots finally secured, fantasy football values were sure to move. With nearly two weeks of best ball drafts in the books since the end of the NFL Draft, we can examine how Underdog ADP has shifted by comparing data over the last week to ADP numbers in the week leading up to the draft.

Underdog Fantasy Resources: Get a Free Pro Subscription | Half PPR Rankings | Roster Construction Strategy | More Best Ball Content

Underdog ADP Risers

Quarterbacks

Underdog ADP Quarterback Risers
Player	Pos	Team	ADP 4/22–4/28	Positional ADP	ADP 5/6–5/12	Positional ADP	ADP Change	Positional ADP Change
Trey Lance	QB	SF	197.6	30	123.9	16	+73.6	+14
Sam Darnold	QB	CAR	183.1	27	167.5	25	+15.6	+2
Matt Ryan	QB	ATL	117.5	15	103.3	12	+14.2	+3
Zach Wilson	QB	NYJ	176.7	26	163.1	24	+13.6	+2
Justin Fields	QB	CHI	134.8	17	124.6	17	+10.2	+0
Joe Burrow	QB	CIN	103.7	12	94.0	10	+9.7	+2

Trey Lance, 49ers

No player saw a bigger overall spike in ADP than the 49ers rookie quarterback, who has moved up more than six rounds and 14 spots in positional ADP. Despite the fact that there is no guarantee that Lance starts Week 1, he is being drafted as a solid QB2, a relatively high valuation in a format where every team is drafting at least two quarterbacks, with many opting for three at the position.

San Francisco ranked 22nd in quarterback fantasy points scored in 2019 and dropped to 28th last season but Lance brings a rushing element that can elevate most quarterbacks to QB1 status in fantasy—John Paulsen’s rookie model projects Lance for about 35 rushing yards per game, a mark that would have ranked fifth at the position last season. Even with Jimmy Garoppolo lingering, Lance is worth a shot in tournaments, even with a top-20 price tag.

Running Backs

Underdog ADP Running Back Risers
Player	Pos	Team	ADP 4/22–4/28	Positional ADP	ADP 5/6–5/12	Positional ADP	ADP Change	Positional ADP Change
Michael Carter	RB	NYJ	139.6	47	96.5	35	+43.0	+12
Trey Sermon	RB	SF	114.4	41	81.9	31	+32.5	+10
Myles Gaskin	RB	MIA	79.9	30	48.1	22	+31.8	+8
Zack Moss	RB	BUF	127.5	43	100.9	36	+26.5	+7
Mike Davis	RB	ATL	77.9	29	51.4	25	+26.4	+4
Devin Singletary	RB	BUF	171.1	55	150.7	48	+20.4	+7

Michael Carter, Jets

Fourth-round players rarely move the needle this soon after the NFL Draft but Carter landed in a perfect situation in a New York backfield that is now without Frank Gore. Carter’s biggest competition is Tevin Coleman who has had opportunities throughout his career to secure a starting role but has rarely taken advantage of those chances.

Although Carter saw the biggest overall price hike of any running back after the draft, he is still being drafted behind 34 players at his position. In an offense that has been freed from Adam Gase, the spike in value is justified.

Trey Sermon, 49ers

Running back committees are usually birthed out of necessity rather than preference but Kyle Shanahan has been an exception to that rule. San Francisco not only spent third-round draft capital on Sermon but they traded up to do so, indicating that he could be the lead in a committee.

With Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson still likely to absorb some snaps, Sermon isn’t egregiously priced as the RB31, as there will almost certainly be some boom weeks and we don’t have to guess which weeks those will be in best ball. If his value creeps much higher than a top-24 back, though, it may be time to hit the pause button on buying shares.

Myles Gaskin, Dolphins

There was heavy speculation that Miami would spend an early-round pick on a running back—once that didn’t happen, Gaskin’s ADP rightfully jumped over two full rounds putting him squarely in the RB2 conversation.

On a per-game basis last season, Gaskin posted RB12 numbers in half-PPR formats such as Underdog. In an offense that should be much better this season than it was last with the additions of wide receivers Jaylen Waddle and Will Fuller and a full offseason for Tua Tagovailoa, Gaskin still offers upside at his current ADP.

Mike Davis, Falcons

Davis was already being drafted as a top-30 back before the Draft and his value jumped more than two rounds after Atlanta ignored their backfield in the Draft. While his overall ADP took a big jump, notice that Davis’s positional ADP rose just four spots. This suggests that not many running backs are going in this portion of best ball drafts and fantasy managers looking for Davis shares might stumble into some drafts where he falls more than expected.

Wide Receivers

Underdog ADP Wide Receiver Risers
Player	Pos	Team	ADP 4/22–4/28	Positional ADP	ADP 5/6–5/12	Positional ADP	ADP Change	Positional ADP Change
Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	DET	213.5	93	175.3	74	+38.2	+19
Antonio Brown	WR	TB	134.7	56	106.3	47	+28.4	+9
Tre'Quan Smith	WR	NO	192.4	79	170.9	70	+21.5	+9
Amari Rodgers	WR	GB	215.9	122	197.0	80	+18.9	+42
DeVonta Smith	WR	PHI	99.6	44	81.6	37	+18.0	+7
Rondale Moore	WR	ARI	153.4	64	136.4	58	+17.0	+6
Ja'Marr Chase	WR	CIN	65.4	28	48.8	21	+16.6	+7
Josh Reynolds	WR	TEN	173.4	71	157.4	65	+16.0	+6
Breshad Perriman	WR	DET	166.0	68	152.0	64	+14.0	+4

DeVonta Smith, Eagles

With the addition of Smith, Philadelphia is suddenly an offense with tremendous stacking potential—Jalen Hurts showed his fantasy upside last season, while Jalon Reagor is a first-round talent that struggled with injuries last season. Meanwhile, Dallas Goedert and Miles Sanders excel in the passing game at their positions (Zach Ertz is still there, too).

Even with this roster, Smith has the potential to lead the team in targets, even if the gap over the next guy isn’t that large. Some drafters might still be drunk off the rookie wide receiver juice from last year but as the 37th player off the board at his position, Smith isn’t too costly, especially for teams targeting Eagles stacks.

Ja’Marr Chase, Bengals

Speaking of being drunk on rookies, this is where things can get dicey. It wasn’t a huge surprise that Chase landed in Cincinnati with his old signal-caller from LSU, but the rookie receiver still jumped seven spots in positional ADP or about a round and a half in overall price.

Per John Paulsen, “Receivers drafted inside the top 10 with at least 12 games played as rookies averaged a hefty 120.3 targets and 210 fantasy points (PPR) per season. Those are low-end fantasy WR2 numbers.” With Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins competing for targets, Smith will need an outlier rookie year to improve much on his ADP.

Tight Ends

Underdog ADP Tight End Risers
Player	Pos	Team	ADP 4/22–4/28	Positional ADP	ADP 5/6–5/12	Positional ADP	ADP Change	Positional ADP Change
Anthony Firkser	TE	TEN	167.2	22	147.9	17	+19.3	+5
Kyle Pitts	TE	ATL	77.1	6	58.0	4	+19.1	+2
Cole Kmet	TE	CHI	182.6	26	167.3	21	+15.3	+5
Chris Herndon	TE	NYJ	207.9	30	198.1	27	+9.9	+3

Anthony Firkser, Titans

Tennessee lost Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith this offseason and then didn't draft a wide receiver until the fourth round. This sequence of events has fantasy football drafters salivating at A.J. Brown’s upside but this is a sneaky boon for Firkser’s value at a decrepit position.

In limited action last year, Firkser was targeted on 15.2% of his snaps, second among tight ends with at least 300 snaps, behind only Travis Kelce. If Ryan Tannehill can continue the efficiency that has carried this passing game in recent years, Firkser has as much upside as any tight end going in this portion of drafts.

Kyle Pitts, Falcons

Should Julio Jones get traded as rumored, we will have to revisit Pitts’s valuation—as things stand, his price is preposterous. He will be the number three at best behind two exceptional pass-catchers. With Arthur Smith now calling plays in Atlanta, there is no guarantee that this is going to be an offense that throws nearly 600 times, even with the extra game on the schedule.

Even if Julio is moved, rookie tight ends typically come along even slower than wide receivers, and expecting a top-five fantasy season is asking for the outlier of all outliers. Pitts is a fantastic dynasty buy but not so much in best ball or redraft.

Underdog ADP Fallers

Quarterbacks

Underdog ADP Quarterback Fallers
Player	Pos	Team	ADP 4/22–4/28	Positional ADP	ADP 5/6–5/12	Positional ADP	ADP Change	Positional ADP Change
Cam Newton	QB	NE	164.7	24	206.5	31	-41.8	-7
Deshaun Watson	QB	HOU	148.1	22	177.6	26	-29.5	-4
Carson Wentz	QB	IND	139.6	18	155.5	22	-15.9	-4
Ryan Tannehill	QB	TEN	104.2	13	119.8	15	-15.6	-2

Cam Newton, Patriots

After New England drafted quarterback Mac Jones with the 15th overall pick, there was sure to be some concern over Newton’s status as the starter in 2021. Newton flirting with undrafted territory in best ball leagues is a bit of an over-reaction. He should get a bit of a mulligan on his 2020 effort after an abbreviated offseason and losing time because of a COVID infection early in the year.

We know that Cam can put up as good of rushing numbers as any quarterback not named Lamar and if he can be even close to average as a passer, a top-12 fantasy finish is well within his range of outcomes. It’s usually unwise to wait until the very end of an Underdog draft to lock down your final passer but I suspect there’s still some meat on the bone when it comes to Cam offering some fantasy goodness, at least in 2021. The risk of him relinquishing the starting job is baked into the price.

Running Backs

Underdog ADP Running Back Fallers
Player	Pos	Team	ADP 4/22–4/28	Positional ADP	ADP 5/6–5/12	Positional ADP	ADP Change	Positional ADP Change
Kenneth Gainwell	RB	PHI	109.2	39	176.4	53	-67.2	-14
Mike Boone	RB	DEN	170.2	54	215.5	73	-45.2	-19
Jeff Wilson Jr.	RB	SF	104.0	37	147.5	47	-43.6	-10
Chuba Hubbard	RB	CAR	133.0	45	175.0	52	-42.0	-7
James Robinson	RB	JAX	29.3	18	67.9	28	-38.6	-10
Melvin Gordon	RB	DEN	50.9	25	79.1	29	-28.1	-4
A.J. Dillon	RB	GB	89.8	32	108.7	39	-18.9	-7
Kylin Hill	RB	GB	197.5	58	216.0	82	-18.5	-24
Boston Scott	RB	PHI	199.5	59	215.5	72	-15.9	-13

Kenneth Gainwell, Eagles

Gainwell was a #DraftTwitter favorite who was being drafted in best ball leagues in hopes of landing in a situation closer to Michael Carter’s than to the one in Philadelphia. As it stands, Gainwell will be buried on a depth chart behind Miles Sanders along with Boston Scott and Kerryon Johnson. For 2021 purposes, he is no more than a dart throw.

James Robinson, Jaguars

Keen observers of Jacksonville’s offseason moves should have already had some concerns about how the running game would look in 2021—the hiring of play-caller Darrell Bevell combined with the signing of wide receiver Marvin Jones pointed to a desire to expand the vertical game with Trevor Lawrence as the obvious top pick in the Draft.

After they drafted running back Travis Ettienne in the first round, Robinson’s best bet at fantasy success suddenly became trying to win the lead job in a committee. Robinson has fallen to the RB28 in Underdog drafts but there’s probably still some 2020 nostalgia baked into those numbers. If Robinson lands on any of my teams, it will have to be closer to the RB4 range.

Melvin Gordon, Broncos

Like Robinson, Gordon saw a dip after his team traded up to draft Javonte Williams in Round 2. Gordon’s projection isn’t as clear as Robinson’s, however. Denver is still rumored as a trade suitor for Aaron Rodgers, which would raise the tide of the entire offense. On the other hand, there’s still an outside chance that Gordon could be cut in his contract year—that could actually boost his value if he lands in the right spot. There’s also no guarantee that Williams wins the lead spot or that this isn’t a full-blown committee. With all the different scenarios here, Gordon is likely a fair value right now.

Wide Receivers

Underdog ADP Wide Receiver Fallers
Player	Pos	Team	ADP 4/22–4/28	Positional ADP	ADP 5/6–5/12	Positional ADP	ADP Change	Positional ADP Change
Christian Kirk	WR	ARI	145.0	61	163.4	68	-18.4	-7
Allen Lazard	WR	GB	186.8	76	204.9	85	-18.2	-9
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	WR	GB	173.7	72	190.8	78	-17.0	-6
Sterling Shepard	WR	NYG	157.2	66	172.3	72	-15.1	-6
Terrace Marshall	WR	CAR	136.4	58	150.2	63	-13.8	-5
Sammy Watkins	WR	BAL	190.6	78	203.6	84	-13.0	-6
Tee Higgins	WR	CIN	49.0	20	60.6	26	-11.6	-6
Tyler Boyd	WR	CIN	69.3	30	80.4	36	-11.1	-6
Marquise Brown	WR	BAL	85.4	39	96.5	44	-11.0	-5
Jamison Crowder	WR	NYJ	156.0	65	164.6	69	-8.6	-4

Tyler Boyd & Tee Higgins, Bengals

Most of the big ADP drops came from the bottom portion of best ball drafts but that could change if we start hearing good things about some of the highly-drafted rookie receivers.

Given Chase’s draft capital, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he’s given every opportunity to be the top receiver for the Bengals, but that’s rare for rookies, especially on teams with established pass-catchers. It’s a long shot that this offense can support three top-36 wide receivers as their ADPs suggest but the fact that Boyd is the last one taken with a 20-pick gap between him and Higgins is a crime. This isn’t to say that Higgins isn’t deserving of his value in a rising passing attack but the gap should probably be a bit closer, making Boyd an intriguing value.

Marquise Brown, Ravens

It’s no secret that Baltimore’s passing game isn’t one that can support multiple pass-catching options—it almost certainly can’t keep three of them relevant. Mark Andrews is locked in as the number one while Marquise Brown relies on high-variance deep balls despite his relatively high target share. With Rashod Batemen now on the roster, Brown could show up with more bust weeks than booms in 2021.

On best ball rosters that start off weak at wide receiver, Brown is risky as a top-100 pick but he could be a valuable target for teams that load up early on the position, especially if that roster has Lamar Jackson.

Tight Ends

Underdog ADP Tight End Fallers
Player	Pos	Team	ADP 4/22–4/28	Positional ADP	ADP 5/6–5/12	Positional ADP	ADP Change	Positional ADP Change
Hayden Hurst	TE	ATL	155.4	19	209.2	30	-53.8	-11
Eric Ebron	TE	PIT	164.2	21	174.1	24	-9.8	-3
Robert Tonyan	TE	GB	97.9	10	117.8	12	-19.8	-2

Hayden Hurst, Falcons

Despite the seemingly negative outlook for Pitts in the ‘Risers’ portion above, there’s no denying that the rookie absolutely kills Hurst’s value. Hurst’s one saving grace is that new play-caller Arthur Smith had two tight ends on the field for 36.3% of the Titans’ dropbacks last season, the third-highest rate in the league. If Julio Jones does end up elsewhere, this could mean some boom weeks for Hurst but he is mostly undraftable with Julio still there.

Cheap Team Stacks to Target

In addition to tracking movement in player ADP, it can be valuable in best ball leagues—especially tournaments such as Underdog’s Best Ball Mania II where drafts within the same contest go on for months—to pay attention to how offenses, as a whole, are moving in value.

By targeting offenses that have recently fallen in price or that could see a spike once the public catches up to which teams are actually good, early best ball drafters can lock in stack values that might not be present later in the summer.

Note: This section will focus on quarterbacks and their respective pass-catchers, but including running backs in team stacks is a viable best ball strategy, as well.

Miami Dolphins

The front office in Miami is doing everything they can to help second-year quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, adding Will Fuller in free agency before drafting Jaylen Waddle sixth overall. In addition to a fantastic wide receiver trio that also includes DeVante Parker—who led the team in targets last season—the Dolphins have one of the best young tight ends in the game in Mike Gesicki.

The best part about this stack is that Gesicki is the only player in this passing game being drafted as a starter at his position and he just barely breaks in as the TE11 in ADP.

Players to Target in Dolphins Team Stacks
Player	Pos	Team	Current ADP	Positional ADP
Will Fuller	WR	MIA	73.9	32
Jaylen Waddle	WR	MIA	94.0	43
DeVante Parker	WR	MIA	115.6	50
Mike Gesicki	TE	MIA	116.1	11
Tua Tagovailoa	QB	MIA	136.5	19

Cincinnati Bengals

One way to find value in passing games is to look for discrepancies between quarterbacks and his pass-catchers. As ADP currently stands, Joe Burrow is being drafted as a top-10 quarterback but none of his wide receivers are going higher than 21 at their position.

On the flip side, all three are being drafted as top-36 receivers but it’s not going to break the bank to land Burrow and pair him with at least one of his targets. Right now the target distribution here is anyone’s guess but if one of Ja’Marr Chase, Tyler Boyd or Tee Higgins falls well behind the group or if there’s an unfortunate injury, all three of Burrow’s pass-catchers are going to look like steals right now.

I also have a suspicion that these very sentiments are going to echo throughout the fantasy industry sooner rather than later and at least a couple of these players could climb in price.

Players to Target in Bengals Team Stacks
Player	Pos	Team	Current ADP	Positional ADP
Ja'Marr Chase	WR	CIN	48.8	21
Tee Higgins	WR	CIN	60.6	26
Tyler Boyd	WR	CIN	80.4	36
Joe Burrow	QB	CIN	94.0	10

Denver Broncos

This one is simple. If Aaron Rodgers gets traded to Denver, every pass-catcher’s ADP is going to skyrocket. Get them now, especially if you are drafting a lot of best ball teams. Even if Rodgers stays in Green Bay, Teddy Bridgewater supported three top-36 receivers last season and Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton could be a sneaky-good 1-2 punch, regardless of who is throwing (besides Drew Lock, of course).

Players to Target in Broncos Team Stacks
Player	Pos	Team	Current ADP	Positional ADP
Courtland Sutton	WR	DEN	66.0	28
Jerry Jeudy	WR	DEN	82.8	38
Noah Fant	TE	DEN	92.1	8
K.J. Hamler	WR	DEN	199.7	82
Tim Patrick	WR	DEN	212.7	91

Jacksonville Jaguars

With Trevor Lawrence, Urban Meyer and Darrell Bevell, this will not be the same Jaguars offense that we saw in 2020. Lawrence is mobile enough that he can be a viable fantasy asset even if he takes time to catch up to the NFL game as a passer. Bevell, who will call plays, historically loves the deep ball.

We know that D.J. Chark has WR1 upside, Laviska Shenault flashed last year after being an industry-favorite leading up to the 2020 Draft and Marvin Jones is one of the better deep-ball threats in football. The target share will be ambiguous going into the season but ambiguous situations often produce value and league-winning upside for those that take multiple shots at the offense.