DFS Optimal Values, Locks and Fades: Week 5
In this article, we walk through the process of constructing an optimal lineup that will dominate your cash games on the main slate of Week 5. We start with the optimal lineups for FanDuel and DraftKings determined by the Lineup Generator. Then, we identify the players that are irreplaceable and should be locked into your lineup. For the remaining players, we discuss the main alternatives that you can swap in to make a winning team that best fits your own style.
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More Cash Game Strategy: FanDuel Breakdown | DraftKings Breakdown | Core Plays | WR/CB Matchups
FanDuel Week 5 Optimal Plays
Locks
- D.J. Moore ($7,900) has received double-digit targets in three straight games.
- Davante Adams ($8,200)
Potential Build
Kyler Murray ($8,500) is second only to Patrick Mahomes in terms of FanDuel fantasy points. He's averaging over 300 passing yards per game and has scored a rushing touchdown in three of his last four games. He should be an absolute lock play against a 49ers defense allowing the 11th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. That said, the signal-caller on the other side is our third-best value play and opens up $1,600 of salary. Last week, Trey Lance ($6,900) only played the second half and racked up 20 fantasy points. He threw two touchdown passes and added 40 rushing yards. It won't be easy playing on the road against the Cardinals defense that ranks ninth in aFPA to opposing quarterbacks but he should have a strong floor.
D'Andre Swift ($6,900) is averaging 16 touches and seven targets per game. Despite not topping 47 rushing yards in a game and only scoring two touchdowns, Swift has the ninth-most FanDuel fantasy points for running backs. With 11 rushing attempts and five targets per game, Leonard Fournette ($6,400) has had a pretty similar role to Swift, except Fournette plays on one of the best offenses in the league. Last week with Giovani Bernard out, Fournette played 82% of the snaps and received 25 touches. If Fournette can maintain that workload, he's in a good spot. The Dolphins are allowing the sixth-most rushing yards per game.
Paying down to Lance would put us in a range to play one of our top values in the flex spot. Najee Harris ($7,300) is averaging 18 touches per game and has at least five receptions in three straight games. Harris's highest rushing yards total is only 62 yards this season and that likely doesn't improve here. However, the targets should be there as teams have the fifth-highest passing play percentage when playing against the Broncos. While Kareem Hunt has been the stand-out running back for the Browns over the last two weeks, Nick Chubb ($7,500) still has averaged over 90 rushing yards per game but he didn't score. Expect a few of those breakaway touchdowns for Chubb against a Chargers defense allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per game and the third-highest rushing yards per attempt.
UPDATE: Our optimizer loves the running back values with Dalvin Cook ruled out. Alexander Mattison and Damien Williams are now the recommended plays along with Ezekiel Elliott.
With Moore and Adams locked in, our top option for our third receiver is CeeDee Lamb ($6,900). Lamb was limited to just five receptions in tough matchups against the Eagles and Panthers. Both teams rank inside our top 12 in terms of schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to wide receivers. This week he gets a Giants defense that has allowed the sixth-most points to wide receivers. The Cowboys have one of the highest implied points on the slate. A bit cheaper is Tyler Boyd ($6,300). Boyd received 11 targets last week and posted 118 receiving yards. This matchup against the Packers is set up to be a shootout as they have the second-highest projected point total on the slate.
UPDATE: Recommended receiver options are now Lamb, Adams and Jaylen Waddle. Devante Parker has been ruled out.
Our third best value play at tight end is Mike Gesicki ($5,600). Over the last three weeks, Gesicki has racked up 24 targets and is averaging six receptions per game. This week the Dolphins face off with the Buccaneers' pass funnel defense and they have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to tight ends. Another option that is slightly cheaper is Robert Tonyan ($5,300). The Bengals have been middle of the road against tight ends but this should be a shootout environment. The Packers have scored 72% of their touchdowns through the air this season, right on par with their 2020 rate—remember that Tonyan scored 10 touchdowns last season.
DraftKings Week 5 Optimal Plays
Locks
- Trey Lance ($5,700)
- Derrick Henry ($9,000)
- Leonard Fournette ($5,200)
Potential Build
With Henry and Fournette locked in, we'll look for a value play to lock into the flex. I mentioned D'Andre Swift ($6,100) in the FanDuel section but his skill set is much more appealing on DraftKings. I'm also interested in James Robinson ($6,000). Last week Robinson returned to his 2020 form playing over 90% of the snaps and getting 19 touches. The Jaguars are averaging the 11th-most rushing yards per game when playing at home.
UPDATE: Alexander Mattison is now the recommended option to go along with Henry and Fournette.
I didn't mention Davante Adams ($8,200) as a lock but he's our top value play at wide receiver. Teams are passing at the sixth-highest rate against the Bengals and Adams is averaging 11 targets per game. If you can fit him in, you're playing him. There are some interesting possibilities moving off of him though. Upgrading the third running back to Ezekiel Elliott ($7,000) is one of them. Elliott's rushing yards have gone up every single week and he's coming off of a 100 rushing yards performance.
Despite playing for the Jaguars, Laviska Shenault ($4,800) has established a pretty solid floor. Aside from his weird -3-yard performance on seven targets back in Week 2, he's had at least 48 receiving yards in every game. He's averaging nearly seven targets per game and after the D.J. Chark injury last week, he received 48% of the team's air yards. The Titans' defense has allowed the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Other options in this price range include the aforementioned Tyler Boyd ($5,300) and Jaylen Waddle ($4,800). Waddle is averaging eight targets per game and is second on the team in target share at 21%. The Buccaneers are the definition of a pass funnel defense and rank 32nd in terms of aFPA to wide receivers.
UPDATE: Adams and Waddle are still in play with Tee Higgins the other recommended option.
Mike Gesicki ($4,200) was our top value on FanDuel and he's also our top value on DraftKings. That said, tight end is a volatile position and if we can save $1,000 going to our second-best value, I'm typically all for it. Evan Engram ($3,200) has six targets in back-to-back games and the Cowboys are allowing the second-most passing yards per game.
