Week 6 Breakout Player Model: Top Contrarian NFL DFS Plays

One of the biggest advantages you can deploy in daily fantasy is buying low on a player who has fallen out of favor with the rest of the field but is set up for a smash week. The 4for4 Player Stat Explorer is home to a model that compares a fantasy player's actual fantasy output with their expected fantasy output, based on their usage and historical data. The goal is to highlight players that have had the requisite usage (snaps, targets, air yards, etc) to produce big fantasy outcomes, but due to the natural variance of the sport have yet to do so. Many times, those underperforming players will be low-owned in DFS and make for fantastic contrarian plays, which this article will highlight.

More Week 6 DFS Strategy: Cash Game Breakdown | GPP Breakdown | Daigle’s Top Values and Picks | WR/CB Matchups

WR Diontae Johnson ($6,300 FD/$5,700 DK)

Diontae Johnson ranks third in the league in unrealized air yards with 316. He is also fifth in deep targets and first in drops. Drops are not something that is sticky and can be a bit fluky. He's averaging 10 targets per game, a few of which are of the downfield variety. Johnson also has a big chunk of the Steelers' air yards at 31% to go along with a 28% target share. The perfect storm is going to come together at some point this season. Johnson doesn't have much of an issue reeling in his short to intermediate targets. He has four games of 10 or more targets and four games of five or more catches. His floor has been established. The point at which Johnson doesn't have any drops and he reels in some of those deep targets is when he crushes his ceiling.

RB Joe Mixon, Bengals ($7,800 FD/$6,900 DK)

Mixon leads the league in a few stat categories that you like to see running backs excelling in. He is fourth in opportunities, first in weighted opportunities, and first in red zone touches. Mixon has 24 opportunities per game in this Bengals' offense which includes a handful of targets. The Bengals face the Saints this week who allow 130 yards per game on the ground. Given the volume Mixon is getting, you have to think he will fall into a multiple-touchdown game very soon. Mixon—like most of the players on this list—has had his salary knocked down a bit because he isn't producing fantasy points despite having the requisite usage to do so. It makes sense to hop on when no one else is and they are nearing their lowest price of the season.

WR D.J. Moore, Panthers ($5,900 FD/$5,200 DK)

I cannot quit D.J. Moore. He remains on the breakout player model given his usage and now he gets a new quarterback in P.J. Walker. Moore has played virtually every snap and he has run every route possible with 100% route participation. He owns a 35% share of the Panthers' air yards, and he has 246 unrealized air yards. The change at quarterback could bring about a breakout game for Moore. His usage and involvement in the offense is steady and encouraging—he may just need a QB like Walker to find him more often or throw more accurate balls. It's worth a shot to see how Walker and Moore play together before they erupt and are priced up.

WR Allen Robinson, Rams ($5,400 FD/$4,900 DK)

This recommendation came with a bit of hesitation because Robinson has looked washed through the first five weeks of the season. However, he lands as the second-best breakout player with more than seven fantasy points per game under expectation over the last three weeks. Robinson hasn't passed the eye test, but you can't argue with the usage and price drop across the industry. Robinson is playing 92% of snaps and running a route on 92% of Stafford's dropbacks. He's got eight red zone targets and they've gone deep to him in every single game. Robinson also has 170 unrealized air yards. Robinson is due for some regression in the right direction and he now sits at a salary that we can take those speculative stabs at him