Paulsen's Reaction to the Trade Deadline

Here are my thoughts on the flurry of moves that happened yesterday before the NFL trade deadline.

Nyheim Hines to the Bills - Hines will likely serve as the passing down back for the Bills. This certainly hurts James Cook since he was seeing snaps in that role. It also hurts Singletary since he may run fewer routes than he has been. It's a slight upgrade for Josh Allen, who already has plenty of weapons to throw to, but Hines is one of the most dangerous pass-catching backs in the league.

Zack Moss to the Colts - Moss probably serves as the RB3 behind Jonathan Taylor and Deon Jackson, who has played well in his opportunities. Jackson will likely see the field more consistently as Taylor's backup. Hines's departure may open up more routes for Taylor, which would boost his value a bit rest-of-season.

T.J. Hockenson to the Vikings - Irv Smith Jr. has a bad high-ankle sprain which seems to have prompted this move. Hockenson is better than Smith and should see a more consistent role in the passing game, though he's still looking at being the No. 3 option (at best) behind Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. K.J. Osborn is a pretty good WR3 as well. I view this as a slight downgrade for Hockenson due to the team's competition for targets. Kirk Cousins gets an upgrade at tight end.

Chase Claypool to the Bears - The move signals that the Bears want to--or are at least willing to--throw the ball more. Claypool has had back-to-back 860+ yard seasons so he's a solid contributor, but he didn't develop much as a route-runner in his second season. Justin Fields now has two legit downfield weapons in Darnell Mooney and Claypool, so his rest-of-season outlook is a little brighter. Claypool's arrival puts a dent in Mooney's upside unless the Bears throw the ball more to grow the passing game pie. For Claypool, he's likely to be the clear WR2 in a run-heavy offense, when he was the WR2/WR3 in a normal offense (and a better tight end), so it looks like a wash to me.

Jeff Wilson to the Dolphins - Since Chase Edmonds was traded to the Broncos, Wilson will serve as the RB2 behind Raheem Mostert and perhaps push Mostert for RB1 duties. Mostert is averaging a solid 4.5 YPC this season while Wilson is three years younger (27) and has averaged 5.1 YPC for the 49ers. I do view Wilson as more of a threat to Mostert's workload than Chase Edmonds seemed to be. The Dolphins soured on Edmonds and didn't give him much of a chance in the last month.

Chase Edmonds to the Broncos - Edmonds's big salary didn't matter in the end. He fell out of favor in Miami and was a throw-in on the Bradley Chubb trade. Perhaps he gets more opportunity in Denver, but the team's GM stated that Melvin Gordon remains the starter and Latavius Murray has been playing pretty well. Edmonds is a good pass-catcher and could fill that role in a three-headed RBBC, diminishing the value of both Gordon and Murray.

Calvin Ridley to the Jaguars - I was wondering when Ridley would be traded since it didn't seem like he was going to play another snap for the Falcons. Jacksonville got a good player in Ridley, who was perennially one of the best route-runners in the league per Matt Harmon's Reception Perception charting. Once he finishes his year-long suspension, he may get off to a slow start during the 2023 season after such a long layoff, but receivers don't suddenly forget how to get open. He turns 28 in December so he should have a few productive seasons left. He'll give Trevor Lawrence a good option on the outside to complement Christian Kirk in the slot. Ridley will likely replace Marvin Jones, Jr., with Zay Jones playing in three-receiver sets. It's a long-term upgrade for Lawrence.