AFC East Odds & Bets: Best 2023 NFL Futures
A case can be made that tying up funds in NFL futures for 5+ months is a pretty -EV way to handle your money. But let's be honest; you've made more egregious -EV decisions than getting down on the Dolphins to make the playoffs in early August.
We've recently kicked off our Divisional Preview Series on Move The Line, and a ton of work goes into that on my end. I deep dive into all aspects of each roster, along with scheduling anomalies and anything else that might matter in preparation for each episode. I'll go division by division here on the site, in lock-step with each week's show, giving you my elevator pitch for each team and the best way to bet on them in the futures market.
I've completed the four NFC division previews, so remember to check those out here.
This was a fruitful venture for those that tailed in 2022. In this space, I went 20-11-1 overall (+9.55 units).
This season, the AFC East teams face the AFC West and NFC East while rotating through the AFC South, AFC North, and NFC South for their "unique 3" opponents. Battling within the division will be quite a challenge because a case can be made that this is the league's best division.
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AFC East
Buffalo Bills
The 2022 Buffalo Bills opened the season with massive expectations. They were the Super Bowl favorites heading into their Week 1 matchup in Los Angeles against the defending champion Rams, and they absolutely destroyed them in front of a national audience to validate their spot at the top of everyone's power rankings. Unfortunately, the season ended earlier than the Bills had hoped. Buffalo had no answer for Joe Burrow and the Bengals in the AFC Divisional Round.
Losing Von Miller to an ACL injury, along with Josh Allen's Week 9 elbow injury, impacted the ceiling of this club in 2022. Allen played through the elbow injury, but it clearly affected his performance. We saw glimpses of the Wyoming gunslinger late in the season, and I don't mean that as a compliment. Allen fumbled the ball 13 times last season, losing eight of them while also posting his highest rate of turnover-worthy plays since his rookie season. He threw 14 interceptions, five of which came inside the red zone. We also saw a sharp spike upward in Allen's time-to-throw metric in the second half of the season. It was more hero ball and less of the quick-hitting decisiveness that led to Buffalo's early-season successes. Allen should be free to create in a way that's unique to the position, given his skill set, but he played so well early last season when he played within the structure of the offense. I'll be watching this closely early in the season.
Buffalo also struggled to get consistent production out of any pass catcher not named Stefon Diggs. Gabe Davis dealt with a high ankle sprain for large stretches of the year, while Isaiah Mckenzie and Khalil Shakir failed to step up on a weekly basis. The Bills used their first-round selection in April's draft to select tight end Dalton Kincaid, who's more of a big slot option than a traditional in-line tight end. The Bills ran 12-personnel on just 8% of their snaps last season (31st in the league), but I expect it'll be a new wrinkle for them in 2023. They've also infused the backfield with more talent, with second-year running back James Cook set to be the lightning to free-agent addition Damien Harris's thunder. Cook's role should expand, which adds a new element to the Bills' offense if they choose to use it. They're running back the majority of a fairly average offensive line, and I was surprised that it wasn't a unit they addressed this off-season.
The biggest shift for the Bills heading into the 2023 season is head coach Sean McDermott taking over for Leslie Frazier as the defensive play-caller. The Bills were fairly predictable pre-snap, which can work if you have the talent to win. With a healthy Von Miller and one of the league's best pass rushes, the Bills were able to pressure the opposing quarterback without sending extra help, but when Miller went down, Frazier didn't adjust quickly enough. Miller appears to be trending in the right direction for the start of the season, and Leonard Floyd was added this offseason to add depth at EDGE rusher. Both starting safeties, Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde, missed significant time, and their return, along with a full season from cornerback Tre'Davious White, should help as well. Tremaine Edmunds took the bag from Chicago this offseason, and it's unclear who will replace him. His loss will be felt in both the run and pass game since Edmunds is one of the league's top coverage linebackers.
The Bills' defense was shockingly bad on third and fourth down last season, which I'm sure led to the offseason change with Frazier and McDermott. The Bills ranked 29th in Football Outsiders' DVOA on third/fourth down and "mid" to-go (between three and six yards) and 26th in "long" to-go (seven or more). Considering they ranked fourth overall in defensive DVOA, that poor performance on late downs sticks out like a sore thumb. If they can protect the ball better on offense and get off the field on late downs defensively, there's a clear path to this team taking a step forward in 2023. Their schedule is brutal, particularly in the back half of the season, but they've shown that they can win anywhere when they're firing on all cylinders. They've held the reigns in the AFC East since Tom Brady left for Tampa Bay, going 15-3 in the division over the past three seasons, but those layups aren't there anymore. I'll be interested to see if Josh Allen can maintain control of the division, but anything short of a Super Bowl appearance in Buffalo feels like a disappointment.
Best Bet: AFC East Division Winner (+130, BetMGM)
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New York Jets
A 2022 recap of the New York Jets feels pretty irrelevant. They finished the season 7-10, an impressive feat considering how poor their quarterback room performed last season. They were among the bottom five offenses in yards per drive, points per drive, success rate, and EPA per play. The defense did a lot of the heavy lifting and remains one of the league's best units, but the big off-season move here was the addition of Aaron Rodgers.
Rodgers appeared to be slipping from the top tier of quarterbacks, then rallied to post back-to-back MVP seasons in 2020 and 2021. His 2022 was not nearly as sharp, but the offensive line struggled to stay healthy, and Rodgers' supporting cast took a massive hit with Devante Adams leaving for Las Vegas. It's tough to properly attribute Rodgers' dip in production last season. His supporting cast wasn't nearly as strong, but Rodgers will turn 40 in December, and elite quarterback play at 40 was unheard of before Tom Brady broke the mold. If Rodgers avoids a cliff-like fall, this offense should take a massive step forward.
Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall were home run selections by General Manager Joe Douglas in the 2022 draft, with Wilson taking home Offensive Rookie of the Year honors, and there's depth behind them. Rodgers helped recruit familiar faces in Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb. Holdovers from the 2022 roster Corey Davis and tight end Tyler Conklin are still underrated, in my opinion, and perhaps this is the year for Mecole Hardman truthers. Either way, Rodgers will be surrounded by significantly more talent than he had in Green Bay last season. There are questions along the offensive line, but there's depth to answer those questions, especially if Duane Brown and Mekhi Becton are ready to go to start the season.
Defensively, this team should continue to excel under Robert Salah. Defensive Rookie of the Year Sauce Gardner led all cornerbacks in PFF's coverage grade last season, allowing just 45.9% of targets to be completed. Opposing quarterbacks posted a 53.9 passer rating when targeting Gardner, which was the second-best mark in the league. His job gets easier with All-Pro defensive tackle Quinnen Williams collapsing the pocket, along with a deep group of EDGE rushers able to rotate in. They finished 5th in defensive DVOA and 6th in EPA per play allowed last season and did so against the league's toughest schedule of opposing offenses. The defense ran hot on the injury front, losing just 8.6 adjusted games due to injury, which was the lowest mark in the league. That should regress, but so should their poor turnover rate as well, which was shockingly low given the talent and health of this starting unit.
The Jets don't have the benefit of figuring it out on the fly this season, thanks to a brutal opening schedule. They're currently favored in 9 of their final 11 games, but they face four of the league's best teams (Buffalo, @ Dallas, Kansas City, Philadelphia) in the season's first six weeks. The Hard Knocks-ification of it all will only raise the expectations in New York. I don't really know how to bet on the Jets this season. There's a simple math problem in the AFC, with more good teams than available playoff spots. This isn't an official play for me, but it is my lean as of now.
Best Bet: To Make The Playoffs - NO (+120, Caesars)
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Miami Dolphins
Mike McDaniel hit the ground running in his first year as a head coach. The offense, and Tua Tagovailoa, were setting the league on fire through the first 12 weeks of 2022. Tua led all quarterbacks in EPA per play, getting insane efficiency out of the electric duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. The defense was a liability, but Miami was able to outscore teams until Tua's concussions put a halt to all of it. The Dolphins still managed to earn the conference's final playoff spot despite the season-ending tailspin, and there's optimism in Miami after a busy offseason.
For the most part, Miami is running it back on offense. There's no reason to doubt that this head coach and quarterback marriage will stumble in Year 2, assuming Tua Tagovailoa is under center. They upgraded the backup quarterback role with former Jets' backup Mike White, who has his flaws but should be an upgrade over Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson should he be called upon. Braxton Berrios and Robbie Chosen (formerly Robbie Anderson and, before that, Robby Anderson) improve the depth behind Hill and Waddle, who ranked first and fourth in yards per route run last season. They brought back running back Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson while also using one of their four draft picks on electric rookie Devon Achane, whose speed jumps off the film when you watch him play. Tua's health is the key, but this is a top-five offense if he's under center for 17 games.
Defensive coordinator Josh Boyer was a holdover from the Brian Flores regime, and he tried to execute Flores's man-to-man and blitz-centric scheme again last season. It didn't work. Miami blitzed at one of the highest rates in the league but was middle of the pack in pressure rate and total sacks. That recipe won't help you win football games in this league. If you're bringing the house, you have to get home. But Boyer is gone, replaced by longtime NFL coordinator and former Broncos head coach Vic Fangio. Fangio isn't afraid to play man coverage, but he'll do it out of a Cover-2 shell, and he's far less likely to disguise his rushers, which means Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb will be sent after the quarterback instead of occasionally dropping into coverage, which happened far too frequently last season. The talent upgrade at all three levels is noteworthy as well, though it took a hit with All-Pro Jalen Ramsey's training camp knee injury. There's depth in the cornerback room behind Ramsey, with Xavien Howard, Kader Kohou, and rookie Cam Smith needed to step up while Ramsey is out, but the front seven is among the league's best, which softens the blow until Ramsey returns. Defensive tackle Christian Wilkins, EDGE Jaelan Phillips, and linebacker David Long are three names casual football fans will likely become more acquainted with if the Dolphins play up to their talent level.
As is the case with all of the AFC East teams, Miami's schedule is tough because they play six times in the division. They have a bye after their Week 9 trip to Germany to face the Chiefs (playing in Germany is probably better than playing at Whatever-they-call-Arrowhead), and after that, their travel load is very light. Five of their last eight games (four of their last five) are at home, while all three road games are on the east coast. I like buying into different iterations of pro-Miami bets, including the division, conference, and Coach of the Year markets.
Best Bet: To Make The Playoffs - Yes (-105, FanDuel)
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New England Patriots
No one can ever take away the two-decade run of dominance, he said, crying into his pillow as Mac Jones walked to the sideline swearing at Matt Patricia under his breath.
The 2022 Patriots season mercifully came to an end in the week's final season, a 35-23 loss in Buffalo. Somehow, the Patriots still had an outside chance at a playoff berth with a win in Week 18, despite some thoroughly uninspiring football in the second half of the season. An outstanding amount of hubris led to an offense coordinated by Matt Patricia, who had spent most of the past 16 years focused on the defensive side of the ball. Joe Judge, another failed New England defensive and special teams assistant turned head coach had his hand in the offense as well. Shocking no one, this duo was unable to help quarterback Mac Jones elevate his game in his second year as a starter.
A lack of big-time playmakers didn't help Mac Jones either, and the Patriots did nothing to address that issue this offseason. Signing JuJu Smith-Schuster to replace Jakobi Meyers is essentially the Spiderman gif in human form, while Mike Gesicki replaces Jonnu Smith as New England's second tight end in 12-personnel looks. The offensive line (32nd in run block win rate) struggled to create room for Rhamondre Stevenson, who was thrust into an every-down role and was the lone bright spot on this New England offense down the stretch. Optimism around New England's 2023 offense lies at the feet of new offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien. O'Brien had the keys to the car in Houston but is likely best served as an offensive coordinator. There's no doubt that he's a significant upgrade, but when Devante Parker and Kendrick Bourne are vital cogs to your offense, there's a ceiling here, and it's not very high.
New England's defense should be solid due to the depth at every position, but they need to shake this recent trend of picking on bad teams and getting destroyed by any quarterback with a pulse. First-round pick Christian Gonzalez was a gift on draft day and should step into a prominent role in the secondary from Day 1. They've done a nice job at adding speed, versatility, and playmakers on the defensive side of the ball over the past few years, and if this team has a chance at getting in the mix in the AFC East, this defense will need to be a reason why.
New England has the league's toughest schedule, with 13 of their opponents currently listed at 8.5 wins or better in the market. The first month of the season is especially daunting (Philadelphia, Miami, New York Jets, Dallas). They're currently favored in four of their 17 games, and if the trend of being a poor performance defense against above-average quarterbacks continues, this could be a long season in New England. The Patriots haven't finished in last place in the division since 2000, Bill Belichick's first year as the Patriots coach, but I have a hard time seeing a path out of the AFC East basement for them this season.
Bets Bet: AFC East - Fourth Place (-165, BetMGM)
