AFC South Odds & Bets: Best 2023 NFL Futures
A case can be made that tying up funds in NFL futures for 4+ months is a pretty -EV way to handle your money. But let's be honest; you've made more egregious -EV decisions than getting down on the Colts to make the playoffs in August.
We're in the middle of our Divisional Preview Series on Move The Line, and a ton of work goes into that on my end. I deep dive into all aspects of each roster, along with scheduling anomalies and anything else that might matter in preparation for each episode. I'll go division by division here on the site, in lock-step with each week's show, giving you my elevator pitch for each team and the best way to bet on them in the futures market.
I've completed the four NFC division previews, along with the AFC East, so remember to check those out here.
This was a fruitful venture for those that tailed in 2022. In this space, I went 20-11-1 overall (+9.55 units).
This season, the AFC South teams face the AFC North and NFC South while rotating through the AFC East, AFC West, and NFC West for their "unique 3" opponents.
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AFC South
Jacksonville Jaguars
We enter the 2023 season with the Jaguars priced as one of the biggest divisional favorites on the board. Most forget that the start of the 2022 season was rocky, and the club needed a 6-1 finish to secure the wide-open AFC South. Their Wildcard Round home game against the Chargers was a microcosm of their season. They spotted the Chargers a 27-0 lead before coming back and winning 31-30 in dramatic fashion. The Chiefs knocked out the Jaguars in the Divisional Round, but expectations are high in Year 2 of the Doug Pederson/Trevor Lawrence era in Duval.
The Jaguars were a top-ten offense in every meaningful offensive metric last season, and it's reasonable to expect them to be even better in 2023 if the offensive line can hold up. Starting left tackle Cam Robinson will miss the first four games of the season due to a PED suspension, and last year's starting right tackle Jawaan Taylor signed with the Chiefs on the first day of free agency. The Jaguars used their first-round pick in April's draft on right tackle Anton Harrison, who was an elite pass-blocking prospect at Oklahoma. If Harrison can hold up right away and swing tackle Walker Little holds down the fort until Robinson's return, Jacksonville should be ok. The backfield should be strong as well, with rookie Tank Bigsby set to play thunder to Travis Etienne's lightning.
The Jaguars made a shrewd business move just before last year's trade deadline, trading for the Falcons' former All-Pro, who was out for the year due to a suspension stemming from a violation of the league's gambling policy. After a rocky end to the 2021 season, it was clear that not only did Calvin Ridley need a 4for4 Betting Subscription, but he also needed a change of scenery. Ridley fits into the Jaguars' offense perfectly. He wins on the outside, and with Christian Kirk in the slot and Evan Engram at tight end, he gives the Jacksonville offense a true difference-maker along the perimeter. In 2020, Ridley's last full season, he posted a 2.44 yards per route run (YPRR), catching 90-of-137 targets for 1,374 yards and nine scores. Ridley did that while running 88.2% of his routes from the outside. Last season, no one topped 1,050 receiving yards while running at least 80% of their routes on the outside. I'm not arguing that Justin Jefferson or Ja'Marr Chase couldn't win if asked to run only perimeter routes, but I am saying that Ridley is their peer in terms of raw overall ability.
The Jaguars are running it back on defense, and while there's something to be said for continuity, this unit needs to improve if the Jaguars are going to be contenders in the AFC. Against the league's easiest schedule of opposing offenses in 2022, the Jaguars ranked 26th in Football Outsiders' defensive DVOA metric last season. They did a poor job converting pressure into sacks and need more out of former first-round picks Josh Allen and Travon Walker upfront because the secondary is below average. Foye Oluokun has led the league in tackles for two consecutive seasons, so he has a special place in my heart, but a third tackle crown alone won't be enough to elevate this defense.
The Jaguars benefit from an easy inter-division schedule, but their unique three (Chiefs, @ Bills, and 49ers) are significantly harder than any of their AFC South peers. They were quiet in free agency this offseason, but they get credit for the late-season Ridley trade since he didn't play a snap for them in 2022. They have the best quarterback and coach combination in the division, and that goes a long way in today's game. I've seen a lot of off-season content focused on finding a non-Jaguars alternative to the AFC South, but if Trevor Lawrence continues to improve, this Lawrence/Pederson combination is far superior to anything else in the division.
Best Bet: AFC South Division Winner (-155, FanDuel)
Fanduel Sportsbook Bonus
Tennessee Titans
I want to give credit where credit is due, so I'll start by lauding head coach Mike Vrabel, who always seems to find a way to get more out of his roster than what appears on paper. You can make the argument that he did it again last season, though it was the first time in years that the Titans were sitting at home come playoff time. Injuries to Ryan Tannehill, along with most of the starters on defense, exposed a lack of depth and talent. 2023 is a new year, but I'm not anticipating a wildly different outcome.
Tannehill is back under center, and the offseason addition of DeAndre Hopkins shows that the Titans are looking to compete in this division this season. Hopkins's addition helps elevate the wide receiver room from the worst in the league to somewhere slightly above that, though that's assuming that second-year wideout Treylon Burks's knee injury at practice this week is nothing but a minor setback. Tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo emerged last season out of necessity, and Tannehill has successfully featured the tight end throughout his time in Tennessee.
Derrick Henry will continue to be the focal point of this offense, but it's fair to wonder if he can keep dominating behind the league's worst offensive line entering his age-29 season as he approaches 2,000+ carries in his NFL career. Henry has proven to be an outlier in numerous ways since entering the league, so I'm not going to count him out now, but he's got his work cut out for him this season. New offensive coordinator Tim Kelly has talked about wanting to play quicker and pass more, but the best-laid plans of mice and men often go awry. This offensive line, even with the addition of first-round pick Peter Skoronski, will be among the worst in the league again in 2023. The Titans ranked 29th in adjusted sack rate allowed last season, with Tannehill's pressure-to-sack rate jumping up to 24.4%, nearly 10% higher than it was back in 2020.
Defensively, they're mostly running it back with the hope of staying healthy, or at least healthier. According to Football Outsiders, the Titans' 85.6 adjusted games lost due to injury on the defensive side of the ball were the most in the league by more than 25 games. They still managed to be one of the best run-stopping defenses in the league, but a 6.3 adjusted sack rate was well below the league average, leading to the league's fifth-worst dropback EPA allowed. They've invested a lot of early draft capital (Krisitan Fulton, Caleb Farley, and Roger McCreary) in the secondary over the past few seasons, and they need to start seeing dividends from that investment.
I'd love to aggressively fade this team, but the Vrabel factor gives me pause. Still, this is a below-average roster in so many key places that it's difficult for me to be optimistic about their chances in 2023. They benefit from playing six games in the division, along with each of the NFC South squads, but I think this team stumbles out of the gates. They rotate between road and home games to start the season prior to their Week 7 bye, but their comfortable underdogs in all three of those early-season home games (Chargers, Bengals, and Ravens). The arrow is pointing down in too many places, despite's Vrabel's refusal to let this team bottom out.
Best Bet: Under 7.5 Wins (+106, FanDuel)
Indianapolis Colts
The 2022 Colts gained a lot of preseason steam in the market last season due in large part to the optimism around the signing of Matt Ryan. It became clear pretty early on that the optimism was misplaced and that Ryan had declined to the point of no return. He couldn't elevate the talent around him or take care of the football. The downward spiral led to the midseason firing of Frank Reich, opening the door to the Jeff Saturday era, which I'm sure was an era that Colts' fans will never forget.
The front office and new head coach Shane Steichen put an end to the post-Andrew Luck merry-go-round at quarterback in Indianapolis, using the fourth overall pick on Florida's Anthony Richardson. Steichen has proven to be one of the league's premier offensive minds. I don't think it's an accident that Justin Herbert hit the ground running as a rookie under Steichen, who then went to Philadelphia and turned Jalen Hurts into an MVP candidate. At 20 years old with just 13 games to his name as a starter, I am confident that Anthony Richardson's best football is ahead of him. Reciting his poor accuracy stats as the end-all-be-all and classifying him simply as a project at the next level misses the mark. Yes, Richardson completed just 53.8% of his attempts last season at Florida, an incredibly low mark for any first-round prospect entering the league, but I wrote extensively about how he was asked to play while at Florida, an offense that didn't scheme many layups for their quarterback. But his athletic traits are off the charts, which is a term that's often used but is applicable here. Richardson's relative athletic score, courtesy of ras.football, ranks first out of 916 quarterbacks tested dating back to 1987. He's a one-of-one.
Richardson's job will be made easier if Jonathan Taylor is healthy and on the field, and Taylor will benefit greatly from playing with a mobile quarterback when the offseason drama settles, and football begins. There's young talent and continuity along the offensive line, with Bernhard Rainmann taking over at left tackle after showing some promise as a rookie. The pass-catching core is average at best, but the front office has prioritized athletism and size over the last few drafts. Rookie Josh Downs brings a speed element that the offense sorely needs and complements the bigger bodies of Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce, Jelani Woods, and Mo-Allie-Cox.
I have concerns about the defense, who are better up front than they are in the back half. They have talent and depth along the interior defensive line and at linebacker, but they need someone to emerge as a pass-rushing threat with Yannick Ngakoue gone. The secondary is a massive question mark, especially at cornerback. Stefon Gilmore is in Dallas, and Isiah Rodgers is serving a suspension due to violating the league's gambling policy, which makes a thin group even thinner.
The Colts will go as Anthony Richardson goes, so it's safe to say that they have a wide range of outcomes in 2023. I'm a believer in the Richardson and Steichen marriage, though that doesn't mean it'll go off without a hitch in Year 1. The schedule works in their favor, with the third-easiest schedule and numerous rest and travel advantages compared to their opponents. They play New England in London, which leaves them only seven true road games. They also host two western time zone clubs (Rams and Raiders) who are on the second leg of back-to-back road games on short rest after playing on Monday night the week prior. I don't have an appetite for any Colts' futures at their current price and prefer to take advantage of a few of these in-season edges, but I'd lean over on their win total if forced to make a play.
Best Bet: Over 6.5 Wins (-115, FanDuel)
Houston Texans
The Lovie Smith era ended terribly for Texans fans, their third straight season with four or fewer wins. Smith and company defeated the Colts on the last week of the season with a 4th-and-20 conversion with less than a minute to go, handing the top pick in the draft to the Bears. The Texans organization has lacked an identity or direction since the Deshaun Watson debacle, but the offseason hiring of one of their own, former Texan linebacker and 49ers defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans, changes that.
The Texans didn't have the top pick in the draft, but an aggressive draft day trade landed them picks two and three in the draft, adding what they hope is a franchise-altering player on both sides of the ball, quarterback in C.J. Stroud and defensive end Will Anderson. Ryans brought former 49ers offensive assistant Bobby Slowik with him to Houston, and there's optimism around Slowik after years in the Shanahan system in San Francisco. A quarterback will rarely move to the NFL and play with a worse supporting cast than what they had in college, but Stroud's tackles and wide receivers at Ohio State will likely top anything that he'll see in Houston or at any point in the league. The Texans' offensive line, when healthy, will be an above-average unit, but right tackle Tytus Howard will miss time to start the season after breaking his hand last week. I'm interested to see how the fundamentals of Slowik's system pair with Stroud, who'll have one of the league's least inspiring pass-catching groups in his first year in the league after throwing to Chris Olave, Marvin Harrison Jr., Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Garrett Wilson at Ohio State. Tight end Dalton Schultz will likely see a heavy workload while Dameon Pierce spearheads the Texans rushing attack.
With a defensive-minded head coach, it's not surprising that improving the defensive talent was a priority this offseason. The Texans upgraded the starter and depth at every level, with big expectations falling on Will Anderson's shoulders right out of the gate. There's a good mix of young talent (Anderson, Derek Stingley Jr., Jalen Pitre) and veteran experience (Sheldon Rankins, Denzel Perryman, Jimmy Ward) here now, so I think we see the Texans' defense take a step forward this season after they were routinely gashed for big plays last season (32nd in explosive play rate allowed).
There's optimism in Houston for the first time in ages, but perhaps too much in the first year of this new regime. The 6.5 win total is a significant jump and one I'm not willing to back with concerns about how Stroud's game translates to the NFL level and the lack of talent around him that can elevate him while he figures it out.
Bets Bet: Under 6.5 Wins (-140, Caesars)
