10 Things You Need to Know About Week 14 for Fantasy Football

It’s going to be a pass-heavy article this week. Over the past three weeks, the average NFL team has passed at a rate exactly matching expectations. Now, that doesn’t sound like a big deal. But it is a marked shift from Weeks 1-10.

Pass Rate Updates

If you’ll let me cherry-pick a bit and remove the Bills/49ers snow game, Week 13 was the second time this season that the average NFL team’s pass rate over expectation (PROE) was positive. We’d expect 2 to 3 teams to have their highest PROE on the season in any specific week. Well, seven teams set a new season-high in PROE in Week 13. The Steelers stick out like a sore thumb. From Weeks 1-12, they didn’t have a single game with a positive PROE. They hit +11.3% against the Bengals, the 4th-highest rate on the week.

The graph below shows PROE on the x-axis and how much that fluctuates weekly on the y-axis. The Texans, Bears, and Panthers are each in the middle of the graph. All three teams hit new season PROE highs in Week 13. As I mentioned last week, the Texans have been brutal on early-down runs this year. Perhaps they’ll let C.J. Stroud shoot a bit more on early downs to avoid consistent 3rd-and-8s. The Bears’ two-highest PROEs have come under Thomas Brown. And two of the three highest PROEs for the Panthers have come under the resurgent Bryce Young.

In general, though, passing offenses have improved throughout the year. After averaging 0.02 pass EPA/dropback from Weeks 1-4, they’re up to 0.10 over the last three weeks. Perhaps teams are figuring out ways to combat the middle-of-the-field disguises and shells that provoked much hand-wringing earlier this season.

Tua Crushing Over the Middle

The graph below shows passing efficiency by area of the field. The x-axis is the EPA per dropback for passes over the middle, while the y-axis is for passes to the outside. You’ll find Tua Tagovailoa in the top-right corner. He’s narrowly behind Derek Carr for the highest efficiency on middle-of-the-field (MOF) throws among qualifying QBs. And the Dolphins are very aware of this fact, as Tagovailoa has the 5th highest rate of MOF passes in the league.

This is also the continuation of a trend from last season when Tagovailoa led the league in MOF EPA per dropback. The key differences this year are his reduced average target depth and who he’s targeting over the middle. Jonnu Smith’s 23 MOF targets narrowly beat both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle for most on the team. And that’s a massive change from last season when the Dolphins rarely targeted their TEs. And Smith’s 1.3 EPA per target on MOF passes this year is absolutely insane. These short Smith MOF targets are here to stay.

Holding Maye Back

The efficiency numbers don’t love him, but what we’ve seen from Drake Maye this season is impressive. Both of his rookie WRs are nowhere to be found. So, he’s earning most of his passing success with castoff WRs and TEs. And he’s doing it behind an offensive ranked dead last by PFF. The Patriots have the 2nd-highest number of offensive holding penalties in the league, falling behind only the Ravens. In turn, they have the 2nd-most EPA lost from offensive holding penalties.

The fact that the Patriots are only bottom-7 in passing EPA per dropback is thanks to Maye, not because of him. And like most of the league, the Patriots have upped their PROE in recent weeks. They’ve been +1.8% PROE over their last five healthy Maye games, after starting the year -at 5.3%. The Patriots seem to realize that Maye is their entire offense. Let’s get the guy some actual NFL starters along the offensive line next year.

Seahawk Short Yardage Adventures

Speaking of offensive lines, the Seahawks’ line is ranked 27th by PFF. And that’s basically where they’ve ranked on late-down, short-yardage plays this season. The graph below shows plays on 3rd or 4th down with three or fewer yards to go. EPA for those plays is on the x-axis, while success rate is on the y-axis. You’ll find the Seahawks in the bottom-left corner. Every short-yardage play for the Seahawks recently has felt like an adventure, and that’s backed up by the efficiency data.

And the offensive line play has particularly hurt Kenneth Walker. Among RBs with at least 100 attempts, Walker is dead last in yards before contact per attempt. He gets almost a full yard less than the average RB before contact. 447 of his 542 rushing yards this season have come after contact. The usage is there for Walker. But the efficiency hasn’t been. He’s liable to break a long one at any point. But his offensive line is not doing him any favors.

Pitts’ Usage is the Pits

If you’re not familiar with Charlie Woerner, I wouldn’t blame you. But he’s a TE on the Atlanta Falcons. And he has the 3rd-highest run blocking grade from PFF among qualifying TEs. Atlanta’s other TE, Kyle Pitts, is ranked 65th among 70 qualifying TEs. According to PFF, on early downs excluding two-minute drills, Woerner out-snapped Pitts 40 to 12 last week. And while that included a lot of situations where runs were likely, we need Pitts out there for the pass attempts.

Since Week 8, Pitts has run a route on only 33% of Falcons’ dropbacks when they had a 7+ point lead. That jumps to 57% when they’re trailing by 7+ points. Honestly, both numbers are far too low for our fantasy purposes. That 33% number is easily the lowest of any relevant Falcons receiver. It’s actually lower than Woerner’s 40% rate in those situations. I thought when Arthur Smith was jettisoned to Pittsburgh, we wouldn’t have to worry about this anymore.

Josh Allen and the Buffalo O-Line

The Bills have used six offensive linemen on 82 rush attempts this year. The next-closest team is the Patriots with 44. And they’ve been successful on those attempts, hitting 0.05 EPA per attempt according to SIS. Now, 15 of those rush attempts came just in their Week 13 snow game. But it’s a clear strategy from the Bills to add more heft to their line.

They’re even doing it in the passing game. Their 29 dropbacks with six offensive linemen on the field also lead the league and is about triple the rate of the team in 3rd place. And obviously, it’s a small sample, but defenses don’t seem to expect the pass in these situations, with the Bills earning about 10 yards and 0.22 EPA per attempt.

It’s Ladd’s World

Ladd McConkey earned 12 of his team’s 24 possible targets in Week 13. Quentin Johnston earned four, Stone Smartt two, and then six other players each earned one target. McConkey’s 50% target share last week was the second-highest of any player this season. His 77 open score from ESPN Analytics is tied for 13th among all qualifying WRs and TEs in the league. It’s easily the highest mark on his team, with Joshua Palmer’s 55 coming in 2nd-place.

A 50% target share doesn’t just happen. It’s a combination of player talent, lack of other weapons, and a determination from the team to get a specific player the ball. On a team with one of the best QBs in the league that has a positive PROE in seven of their last eight games, it’s wheels up for McConkey. The Chargers play the Chiefs’ defense in Week 14 that suddenly looks vulnerable after being diced up by both Bryce Young and Aidan O’Connell. Then McConkey gets one of the best matchups in the first week of the fantasy playoffs when the Chargers face off with the Buccaneers. He’s a must-start going forward.

Next RB Up for the 49ers

By the time you’re reading this, someone in your league bid all of their FAAB on Isaac Guerendo. In a brutal run-out for Christian McCaffrey managers, both CMC and the handcuff they likely rostered in Jordan Mason were placed on IR. As if the CMC manager needed more to deal with this year. We have a very small sample size on Guerendo. But he’s looked great on his limited number of touches.

On his 10 attempts in Week 6, for example, Guerendo led the league with 7.08 rushing yards over expected (RYOE) per attempt. In Week 8, Guerendo finished 8th in the league in RYOE with 1.82. And his 57% success rate in Week 8 was much stronger than in Week 6. He also earned four of his six career targets in Week 8. The current expectation is that Patrick Taylor will step in on passing downs. That limits both Guerendo’s ceiling and floor, but the size-speed back can break off a long one at any point. I’m excited to see what he does with an extended opportunity.

Week 14 Passing Matchups

I’ve talked enough about the Bills passing offense so far, but they have the best matchup of the week against a vulnerable Rams pass defense. It’s an 89th-percentile passing EPA matchup over the past decade. The Lions and the Buccaneers both have at least 82nd-percentile pass success rate matchups against the Packers and Raiders, respectively.

The Eagles have a 96th-percentile completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) matchup this week. That compares Jalen Hurts’ CPOE against how the Panthers’ defense has fared against opposing QBs this season. But I wouldn’t expect many Hurts pass attempts in this one. The Eagles have one game this year with a positive PROE, and that was back in Week 3. Additionally, opposing teams run on the Panthers’ defense at one of the highest rates in the league. We should see a heavy dose of Saquon Barkley in Week 14.

Week 14 Rushing Matchups

With all of the above in mind, it’s not a surprise that the Eagles have a 99th-percentile rushing EPA matchup in Week 14. That’s the highest percentile I’ve seen this season. It’s a top-50 matchup from 2014-2023. But that includes a lot of small-sample matchups that happened earlier in the season. If we exclude any matchup prior to Week 10, this is the 2nd-best rushing matchup since 2014. The only better matchup was the Patriots vs the Texans in Week 10 of 2020.

In addition to the Eagles, the Bills, Saints, and Bengals, all have at least 90th-percentile rushing EPA matchups this week. We should see James Cook, Alvin Kamara (particularly without Taysom Hill), and Chase Brown all find success in Week 14.