10 Things You Need to Know About Week 16 for Fantasy Football

You’re just two wins away from a championship. And if you’re like me, you’ll also be sweating a few best ball tournament entries. Similar to last week, let’s start off with the passing and rushing matchups for Week 16. I like to use the matchup information at this stage for tricky tiebreak decisions. After that, we’ll dig into the other things you need to know.

Week 16 Passing Efficiency Matchups

The Bills’ passing attack has a 96th-percentile matchup against the Patriots this week. The Patriots’ pass defense is second-worst in EPA, while the Bills’ offense looks unstoppable. But in their game last week where the Bills scored 48 points, no single Bills pass catcher had a massive day. Josh Allen continues to spread the ball around to his cast of characters from the island of misfit toys.

Among the nine different pass catchers with a target last week, Amari Cooper was not among them. We saw Cooper’s ceiling just the week before when he earned 14 targets. But he’s not a full-time player at the moment. You’re starting James Cook and Khalil Shakir. I think your choice to start Cooper is entirely dependent on your other options and how much variance you want to introduce into your lineup.

Week 16 Rushing Efficiency Matchups

It’s a great week to be a running back. Five different teams have 90+ percentile rushing matchups in Week 16. I’ll dig more into both the Cardinals’ and Buccaneers’ rushing attacks below. But James Conner and the Bucky Irving / Rachaad White tandem have excellent matchups this week. If you were able to advance a Saquon Barkley team to the semi-finals, I would anticipate a much better day against the Commanders.

And Jahmyr Gibbs should have a monster day in the semi-finals. He has a 90th-percentile matchup against the Bears who just gave up about five yards per carry for 86 yards and a score to Aaron Jones. This is the first week that Gibbs will be without David Montgomery. I’d expect some fireworks from Gibbs in Chicago.

Pass Rate Update

Pass rates continue to tick up across the league. Since Week 11, the average team has passed at a rate almost matching their expected pass rate. But that’s a big improvement from the league’s -2.5% pass rate over expectation (PROE) from Weeks 1-10. From Weeks 1-7, we had five instances of a team hitting a pass rate 20+% below expectation. Then we had a stretch without any of these massively run-heavy games until the Falcons did it on Monday night. With that performance, the Falcons have overtaken the Packers as the second-most run-heavy team in the league. They’ve only had two games this year with a positive PROE, and they were both wins in Weeks 4 and 5.

But Kirk Cousins has played dreadfully since the Falcons’ bye. And the Falcons’ coaching staff has leaned massively into the run as a result. Week 15 was his best game from a turnover standpoint, throwing *only* 1 interception after throwing multiple in each of the prior two games. But he managed about -8.0 total EPA on only 24 dropbacks against the Raiders. And that was on an aDoT of only 5.8 yards. He was outplayed by Desmond Ridder. It’s time to give Michael Penix a shot.

Bucs Using Heavy Personnel in the Run Game

One of the surprises of the season is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers being 4th in points scored through Week 15. And that comes with the context of missing Mike Evans and Chris Godwin for extended stretches. In Week 16, they have a 97th-percentile rushing matchup against the Cowboys. What’s interesting is their use of heavy packages in the run game in recent weeks. From Weeks 1-13, the Buccaneers used 13-personnel (i.e. 1 RB and 3 TEs) on only 13 rushing attempts. They’ve had 19 of those attempts in just the past two weeks.

The graph below shows the number of 13-personnel rush attempts on the x-axis and the EPA/attempt of those carries on the y-axis. You’ll find the Buccaneers in the top-middle of the graph. They’re using this personnel package on more of their runs and are finding success. Most of these carries went to Rachaad White and Sean Tucker in Week 15. But on Bucky Irving’s two 13-personnel attempts, he generated 60 rushing yards. That included a 54-yard run in the 3rd quarter that pulled a guard and an H-back to open the running lane, according to Dan Pizzuta of the 33rd Team. The Cowboys’ run defense looked excellent against the Panthers last week, but Bucky Irving can be trusted in starting lineup again.

James Conner in Obvious Passing Situations

James Conner has been fantastic for fantasy football this year. But one downside was his role in obvious passing situations. According to Nathan Jahnke of PFF, Emari Demercado had taken 77% of the 3rd-and-3+ snaps and about half of the 2-minute drill snaps. But prior to Week 15, the Cardinals placed Demercado on injured reserve due to a back injury. And somewhat surprisingly, they didn’t activate Michael Carter.

What they ended up doing was splitting the 3rd-and-long snaps between Conner and DeeJay Dallas, but giving Conner all of the 2-minute drill snaps. Conner’s actual production on those snaps wasn’t different from the rest of the season. He didn’t earn any touches on those 3rd down snaps. And his two 2-minute drill touches were exactly average for him on the season. But the volume will come with him on the field for those valuable fantasy point opportunities. And now the Cardinals have a 95th-percentile rushing matchup against the Panthers in Week 16. Wheels up for Conner.

Brian Thomas Jr.Slot Monster

Josh Reynolds made his debut for the Jaguars last week after his stint with the Broncos ended. Reynolds is primarily an outside WR, joining a Jaguars team that mostly has outside WRs. In Week 15, the Jaguars rotated both Reynolds and Devin Duvernay in 3-WR sets. This allowed Brian Thomas Jr. to play more out of the slot. From Weeks 1-14, Thomas earned 55 targets from the slot, according to SIS, good for about four targets per game.

Well, in Week 15, Thomas earned eight targets while lined up in the slot. We love this usage in fantasy. Passes over the middle of the field are much more efficient than targets to the sideline. We want our fantasy WRs to be used across the formation, including layup targets over the middle of the field. This usage is excellent news for Thomas in the fantasy semi-finals. As a related note, Brenton Strange also earned eight slot targets. He’s stepped fully into Evan Engram’s role and is a viable TE if you’re in a pinch at the position.

Let Drake Maye Cook

Drake Maye’s target depth in the first half against the Cardinals was inexcusable. There have been 830 individual QB halves this season where the QB had at least 10 dropbacks. Among that large sample, Drake Maye has the lowest target depth in a half this season. It was the only negative average depth at -0.4 air yards per attempt. He had three attempts behind the line of scrimmage and only one attempt deeper than three yards.

When Maye got the ball back in the 3rd quarter, the Patriots were already down 13 points. And at that point, the Patriots let Maye try to win downfield and make up the difference. Why are we tying Maye’s arms behind his back in the first half? Especially when one of Maye’s biggest strengths as a prospect was his ability to push the ball down the field. I doubt you’re starting any Patriots pass catcher in the semi-finals. And rightfully so if the Patriots aren’t designing any successful intermediate routes until the game is out of reach. Please get Maye an offensive line and NFL-caliber receivers in the offseason.

Xavier Worthy Trust Meter

The Chiefs are clearly trusting Xavier Worthy more as the season progresses. He earned 11 targets in Week 15, which was his highest mark this season and his 2nd-highest target share at 28.9%. And his six receptions were a new career high. Crucially, his 37 routes run were 13 more than any other Chiefs WR, according to PFF. It’s clear that Worthy is distancing himself from players like DeAndre Hopkins who failed to hit a 50% route rate last week. And the Chiefs are clearly focused on getting Worthy the ball, as his three rushing attempts also tied a career-high.

We’ll obviously need Mahomes to start for Worthy to be viable. But we’ll also need Mahomes to have some ability to move, as he’s taken 10+ hits in three straight games. This Chiefs offensive line is brutal and Andy Reid continues to shift players around, particularly at left tackle, with limited success. And we’ve talked in recent weeks about how Mahomes isn’t playing to his typical alien level at avoiding sacks when pressured. The Texans have one of the better pass defenses in the league and have been the best at limiting the success rate of opposing passers. But if Mahomes goes, Worthy can safely enter your fantasy lineups.

Is It Finally Kimani Vidal Time?

To start off, you’re not starting Kimani Vidal, or any Chargers player beyond Ladd McConkey for that matter. But he’s worthy of a bench spot ahead of his Week 17 game versus the Patriots. Last week was the first time that Vidal played the majority of the snaps for the Chargers. Now, a part of this was due to the Chargers being down massively to the Buccaneers and Vidal being the more trusted pass-catching back. But Vidal played seven of the 11 first-drive snaps, so it’s evident this change wasn’t solely due to game script.

None of this really shows up in the box score, unfortunately. Vidal had only three attempts for nine rushing yards. More promising were his career-high three targets, including two on that opening drive. But Vidal played on every obvious passing situation and out-snapped Gus Edwards three-to-one in the red zone. It’s a brutal matchup with the Broncos this week, but things lighten up a lot with the Patriots in Week 17. And if this usage sticks, the fantasy points will come.

Steelers WRs without Pickens

As of writing this, George Pickens’ Week 16 status is unknown. But if he sits, Calvin Austin is a hold-your-nose, desperation play against the Ravens. The Ravens' pass defense has improved a lot in recent weeks, but they’re still below average on the season. And they’ve been susceptible to explosive pass plays against them. Austin was the lone bright spot among the Steelers’ WR group last week.

And the Steelers are aware of this, letting Austin play on a majority of 2-WR set snaps against the Eagles when he previously was sidelined for most of these reps. The Steelers also might be forced to pass in this one with the Ravens currently 6-point favorites. Austin’s had either a touchdown or 65+ receiving yards in three of his last four games. He’s an option if you’re desperate.