10 Things You Need to Know About Week 2 for Fantasy Football

Welcome; I hope you're ready to look at some graphs! The goal for this weekly series is to connect both broader football trends and advanced stats to your fantasy football teams. To kick things off, let’s look at the increased use of 2-TE sets that had a particular impact for the Ravens in Week 1.

Fantasy Implications for Increased 2-TE Sets

An expectation going into the season was we’d see additional 2-TE sets in 2024. And so far, we’ve seen particular teams outpacing the rest of the league on that front. The graph below shows both the use and efficiency of 2-TE sets Week 1. And while the average NFL team used 2-TE sets at about the same rate as last year, about five teams have distanced themselves from the rest of the league. That’s a significant change from last year when really just the Falcons used a massive dose of 2-TE sets. And there are a few reasons for this change.

The first reason is the current NFL defensive mindset is to limit any and all explosive plays. As a result, defenses are using more 2-high shell coverages with the intention of removing long passing plays from their opponent. Two-TE sets are in part a response to this defensive change, increasing the efficiency of a team’s rushing attack and penalizing defenses for focusing on explosive passes.

Additionally, 2-TE sets can make offenses less predictable. Nate Tice of Yahoo Sports recently discussed how 3-WR sets limit the run options for offenses. But with the rise of receiving TEs like Isaiah Likely (who I promise we’ll get to), teams can do more things with two TEs on the field. They can have the bigger-bodied TE stay in and block for the run or run a route similar to what a third WR could accomplish.

The biggest fantasy implication for this trend is the top two WRs on a team will separate even more from the tertiary options. Yards per route run (YPRR) is one of my favorite WR stats but Tej Seth has previously looked at the need to adjust YPRR for personnel differences. Specifically, with fewer WRs on the field, it is easier for the remaining WRs to command higher per route volume and be efficient on that volume. With that in mind, the third WR on an NFL team that uses a lot of 2-TE sets will not be as viable a fantasy asset. This was part of the zero RB thesis coming into the season. Elite WRs should separate even more from later-round options, making them a priority earlier in the draft.

Digging into specific fantasy TEs, Isaiah Likely is both the cover image and title inspiration for our Week 2 waiver column. And for good reason. He put up a 9/111/1 line in an island game that everyone in your league watched. With the Ravens’ very high use of 2-TE sets, Likely ran the fourth most routes on the team, behind the top two WRs Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman, and only three routes behind Mark Andrews.

And two things can be true here. Likely can be a target in managed leagues and we can hold out hope for Andrews. As mentioned, Andrews ran more routes and had the more receiver-friendly role with a 67.4% slot rate vs 41.0% for Likely. According to Nathan Jahnke of PFF, Andrews was double-covered on a higher rate of his routes in Week 1 compared to any game in the past three seasons. Don’t panic about Andrews if you have him, but target Likely if you don’t.

Quickly digging into some other TE situations, I would release Luke Musgrave back into the waiver pool if he’s on your roster. Tucker Kraft dominated the passing work for Green Bay, running 30 routes to Musgrave’s eight. And now with Jordan Love injured, you can do better than the TE2 on a team with elite WRs and questionable QB play in the short term. Similarly, it’s time to release Cole Kmet back into the waiver pool as well. Gerald Everett ran 21 routes to Kmet’s 11.

Passing and Rushing Efficiency

Connected with the increased use of 2-TE sets is the expectation that rushing efficiency would continue to rise alongside reduced passing explosive plays. And that was the case in Week 1 for most teams. The graph below shows passing EPA per play on the x-axis and rushing EPA per play on the y-axis. In 2023, the average NFL team’s passing EPA was just north of zero, while the average NFL team’s rushing EPA was about -0.10. So far in 2024, we’ve seen a big uptick in rushing efficiency if you exclude two glaring exceptions: the Las Vegas Raiders (who I’ll dig into) and the Carolina Panthers (who I won’t as we wait for Jonathon Brooks to return from injury).

The Raiders have started Week 1 with historically bad rushing efficiency. And that’s particularly bad for a team that wants to be extremely run-heavy and to operate at one of if not the, slowest paces in the league. And now Antonio Pierce is saying that he’ll ride the hot hand at RB. The thesis for Zamir White was that he would dominate snaps for the Raiders. But with the Raiders likely to be trailing in most games this year, White out-carried Alexander Mattison by eight attempts but crucially ran 14 fewer routes. I would rather have Mattison moving forward but I would ultimately rather not have either of them. I might wait for White to score a TD and then sell him for what you can get.

Advanced Rushing Efficiency Stats (aka Hope for My RB Priors)

The graph below shows rushing yards over expected (RYOE) per attempt on the x-axis and NFL Next Gen Stats’ version of success rate on the y-axis. And where you don’t want to be on the graph is near Rachaad White in the bottom-left corner. As I wrote this offseason, the biggest concern with White’s profile is that he’s a volume-based play (at least on the ground). But RBs that were as inefficient as White was last year on his high volume have averaged a 23.7% drop in rushing attempts their following season.

So far this season, White out-carried Bucky Irving 15 attempts to nine. But even with six fewer attempts, Irving doubled White’s rushing yards. Now that Tampa Bay has a viable alternative that has already flashed, I would anticipate White’s volume to decline further throughout the year. Irving is a priority target on the waiver wire.

Along with Zamir White, who we’ve already discussed, Najee Harris finds himself in the bottom-left quadrant. Harris dominated the RB carries in Week 1. But remember, we knew this would happen coming into the season. Warren was always going to be limited as he recovers from a hamstring strain. Don’t panic about Warren yet.

The RYOE graph sets 13 attempts as the minimum qualifying amount. Part of that is to keep J.K. Dobbins off of the graph so he doesn’t fully break it like De'Von Achane did last year. Dobbins’ 9.8 RYOE/attempt is about 3.5 times higher than Aaron Jones in second place. Gus Edwards on a similar number of attempts managed -1.63 RYOE/attempt. The Chargers now get the pleasure of playing the Carolina Panthers in Week 2. Find a way to get Dobbins on your team and into your lineup this week.

Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE)

We saw some absolutely brutal QB play in Week 1. The graph below shows CPOE on the x-axis and air yards per attempt on the y-axis. The first thing that screams out to you on the graph is Anthony Richardson; we’ll get to him in the next section, I promise. But I want to focus on general trends first. The average QB in Week 1 had a CPOE of -2.5%. That is really bad, especially when you layer in the context that the average depth of target dropped in Week 1 compared to 2023 as a whole. As mentioned, with defenses taking away explosive passing attempts, offenses have responded with increased rushing efficiency and shorter pass attempts.

Only Taylor Heinicke and Trevor Siemian finished 2023 with a CPOE below -8%. We had eight QBs with a worse mark than that in Week 1. That includes some high-profile passers like Trevor Lawrence, Jordan Love, Caleb Williams, Aaron Rodgers, and Deshaun Watson. I think we can safely say better days are ahead for at least Lawrence, Williams, and Rodgers.

There weren’t many positives to take away from the Panthers’ performance in Week 1. But at the very least for fantasy, Bryce Young was willing to throw the ball down the field. If the Diontae Johnson manager in your league is in full-fledged panic mode, I would see if you can get him on the cheap. Young can’t be twice as bad as Heinicke or Siemian were last year and retain the starting job. And Diontae was one of only nine players with multiple endzone targets in Week 1.

Anthony Richardson Breaking Graphs

Continuing the discussion on target depth, Anthony Richardson broke the graph above. He continues to act like a fantasy QB we made in the lab. He’s the most athletic QB in combine history that breaks tackles rushing into the endzone and has a target depth more than twice as high as the NFL average. This was only the fourth time in the past five seasons that a QB had an aDoT over 16 yards on 20 or more dropbacks.

The biggest “issue” for Richardson in Week 1 was that he only had 24 dropbacks and 19 passing attempts. Those stats were good for 31st and 32nd in the league, respectively. It was a strange game in the fact that the Texans dominated the number of plays, including a massive rushing attempt number by Joe Mixon. We should see this even out a bit going forward. And that’s fantastic news for Richardson’s fantasy prospects.

When looking at The Most Predictable Quarterback Stats, I found that fantasy points per dropback was the best metric to look at for future QB performance. On a small sample last year, Richardson put up 0.74 fantasy points per dropback, which was the fourth-best season since 2018 behind three Lamar Jackson performances. In Week 1, Richardson put up an unreal 1.30 fantasy points per dropback.

Daniel Jones Breaking Graphs…In a Bad Way

In a week with some truly bad QB performances, Daniel Jones stands out as an outlier. Despite an aDoT just north of four yards, Jones had the worst CPOE on the day. To put a positive light on this, it could have been worse for Nabers. He finished the day with a 5/66/0 line and was the lone efficiency spot for the Giants, generating over 4.2 receiving EPA or 0.6 per target. The Giants lost EPA throwing to any player not named Nabers on the day, with Wan'Dale Robinson's targets being especially inefficient.

But with 11 targets, you could *gulp* definitely do worse than adding Robinson. He finished Week 1 second behind only Cooper Kupp in expected fantasy points among WRs. Given the results of this week, I would expect the Giants to funnel as many targets as they possibly can to Nabers going forward. But Robinson still might be heavily involved. And similar to Bryce Young, Jones simply can’t play this poorly and hold onto the starting job. So, either things improve or we get Drew Lock and the hope for better QB play.

Pass Locations: The Middle of the Field is Lava

We care about pass locations in fantasy because passes over the middle of the field are typically more efficient than passes to the boundaries. With that in mind, we had some comical passing charts from Week 1. The first is from Justin Fields. He managed 23 passing attempts on the day without a single one to the middle of the field. That’s honestly hard to do. The second is from Caleb Williams. He at least had some attempts toward the middle, but 12 of his 14 completions were to the boundary and he struggled on anything with a target depth beyond 10 yards. I don’t have much optimism for Arthur Smith to design an improved passing game for Week 2. But we can hold out hope for a highly-touted rookie in his first NFL game.

Bears WR Utilization and Texans WR Air Yards

Digging into Williams’ WRs, there were a lot of positive signs for Keenan Allen despite the lackluster nature of the passing offense as a whole. All three WRs (Allen, D.J. Moore, and Rome Odunze) had similar route rates. But Allen dominated the air yards (49% air yards share) and targets (44% target share). He got banged up in the game but was able to return and it doesn’t seem like it will impact his Week 2 status. Unfortunately, Odunze suffered an MCL sprain and is considered week-to-week. Allen’s age is obviously a concern, but the offseason reports of “fat Keenan” seem to be overblown. Just like Diontae Johnson, Allen was also one of the nine players with multiple endzone targets in Week 1.

Alternatively, I would consider Stefon Diggs a sell-high. Now, don’t get me wrong, I want virtually any piece of this Texans offense. But he was a close third in targets and a distant third in air yards among the WR group. More specifically, Collins had 112 air yards, Dell had 105 air yards, and Diggs had…nine. Your opponents might see the two TDs and ignore the rest of his week. I would see if you can swing DeVonta Smith plus for Diggs after his big but likely unsustainable Week 1.

Eagles Slot Snaps

Speaking of DeVonta Smith, we were wondering all offseason who would get the slot snaps in Kellen Moore’s offense. That role has been especially fruitful for fantasy managers over the years. Think CeeDee Lamb in Dallas and Keenan Allen in Los Angeles last year. In Week 1, Smith dominated the slot snaps for the Eagles with 26 vs nine for A.J. Brown and a handful to Jahan Dotson, Johnny Wilson, and Britain Covey. Now this is not a knock to Brown. He’s one of the most talented, if not the most, WRs in the league. But we have an offense we trust that is highly concentrated between just two targets and Smith has a role that has been tremendously successful in the past. Buy Smith now if you can since Brown had the big TD despite the turf issues in Brazil.

Teams That At Least Tried the New Kickoff

Not including the Monday Night Football game, Week 1 saw a 34% kickoff return rate. While that is up from about 21% last year, it is disappointing compared to the NFL’s own projections. But Week 2 sets up nicely for two specific games. New Orleans kicked off 10 times (!) versus the Panthers and allowed nine returns. Chicago kicked off six times for five returns. Dallas kicked off eight times for four returns. And Houston similarly kicked off seven times for four returns. New Orleans plays Dallas and Chicago plays Houston in Week 2. Rashid Shaheed and KaVontae Turpin are must-starts in sicko leagues that prioritize kickoff return yards. And DeAndre Carter might also be viable given the injury to Rome Odunze potentially opening up offensive snaps to the returner. Generally, though, most teams seem surprisingly ok giving their opponents the ball on the 30-yard line.