Week 2 Fantasy Football Sneaky Starts & Sleepers
All but the luckiest fantasy owners at some point need to find the proverbial diamond in the rough—a waiver wire or bench player capable of putting up some points in a pinch. This weekly feature is dedicated to that part of fantasy football. It's not pretty, but it's part of the game.
I’ll put the defense’s aFPA rank in parentheses below, though users should exercise caution in putting too much stock into last year’s strength-of-schedule. The higher the number, the better the matchup. We will update aFPA for 2024 starting with Week 4 of this season.
Week 1’s Sneaky Starts featured Baker Mayfield (QB2), Geno Smith (QB9), Matthew Stafford (QB12), Jerome Ford (RB13), Jayden Reed (WR1), Brian Thomas (WR18), Xavier Worthy (WR9), Jameson Williams (WR5), and Colby Parkinson (TE7).
Let’s see who might surprise this week.
Quarterbacks
Jared Goff, Lions (vs. TB, 29)
I’m definitely going back to the Goff Gambit well. He has a long history of producing high-end QB1 numbers at home and nearly had a second touchdown pass against the Rams. (Sam LaPorta was tackled near the goal line.) The Bucs were vulnerable against the pass last season, so the Lions should be able to move the ball in what should be a high-scoring game.
Brock Purdy, 49ers (@ MIN, 3)
Purdy had a quiet game against the Jets, but that wasn’t too surprising given the matchup. He still averaged 8.0 YPA and threw for 231 yards while adding an 11-yard rush. The Vikings were tough against quarterbacks last season, but the 49ers’ passing game is arguably the most efficient in the league.
Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers (@ DET, 31)
Fresh off a QB2 finish in Week 1–and a QB9 finish last season–I’m running it back with Mayfield in a tasty matchup with the Lions, who just yielded a top-12 game to Matthew Stafford. Chris Godwin is trending up now that he’s back in the slot, and rookie Jalen McMillan gives Mayfield yet another receiving option to go along with Mike Evans and Godwin.
Matthew Stafford, Rams (@ ARI, 23)
Another week, another road dome game for Stafford against a suspect pass defense. The Bills went run-heavy against the Cardinals in Week 1, but Josh Allen averaged 10.1 yards per attempt and threw two touchdowns. The Cardinals’ offense scored 21 points even though Marvin Harrison Jr. was missing in action, so this should be a fun one.
Justin Fields, Steelers (@ DEN, 8)
Fields didn’t throw or run for a touchdown, but he was solid throwing the ball (6.8 YPA) and he ran for 57 yards. The Broncos defense gave up 171/1 to Geno Smith as a passer, which isn’t particularly bad, but they also gave up a 34-yard touchdown run to Smith. If Russell Wilson remains out, Fields is a live streamer once again.
Running Backs
Jordan Mason, 49ers (@ MIN, 7)
With Christian McCaffrey once again ruled out--and potentially missing the next four games if he does indeed go on injured reserve, as the 49ers are considering--Mason is locked and loaded as a low-end RB1 in the short-term. He rushed for 147 yards and a touchdown in Week 1, and is likely to see another big workload against the Vikings.
Jeff Wilson & Jaylen Wright, Dolphins (vs. BUF, 12)
It was announced Wednesday that Raheem Mostert would miss Week 2, so Jeff Wilson will likely see a bigger role after turning five carries into 26 yards filling in for a struggling Mostert last week. I don’t know if he’ll get 10+ carries but he very well might with De’Von Achane banged up as well. In the 18 games in the last three seasons where he has seen 8+ carries he has averaged 15.5 touches for 74 yards and 0.45 touchdowns. If Achane is ruled out as well, Wilson will be ranked higher than Wright, but Wright will be playable as a flex/RB3.
Brian Robinson, Commanders (vs. NYG, 27)
Robinson’s usage was impressive. He turned 15 touches into 89 total yards and a touchdown and had a larger role as a receiver (3-49) than expected with Austin Ekeler in town. The Giants gave up a combined 159 total yards on 30 touches to Minnesota running backs last week.
J.K. Dobbins, Chargers (@ CAR, 19)
Dobbins turned 13 touches into 139 total yards and a touchdown and vastly outplayed Gus Edwards (11 carries, 26 yards). This could lead to more work, but at the very least he should be in line for 12-15 touches against a Panthers defense that just gave up 180 rushing yards and two scores to the Saints.
Jerome Ford, Browns (@ JAX, 15)
Ford dominated the Cleveland backfield more than expected. He handled 18 of the team's 22 backfield touches, generating 69 total yards and a touchdown. The Jaguars held the Dolphins’ running backs to 2.9 yards per carry but yielded nine backfield catches for 86 yards. Ford should be productive.
Najee Harris, Steelers (@ DEN, 21)
It could be related to Jaylen Warren’s injury, but Najee Harris handled 21 of the team's 29 backfield touches and Cordarrelle Patterson had as many touches (4) as Warren did. Harris appears to be the clear RB1 in Pittsburgh at this point. The Broncos gave up 150 total yards and two touchdowns to Seattle running backs last week.
Zach Charbonnet, Seahawks (@ NE, 8)
Kenneth Walker is doubtful, so I've removed him from the projections. Charbonnet becomes a Sneaky Start in his absence as he's likely to take over RB1 duties against New England. He's a pretty significant downgrade from Walker in terms of rushing ability per the advanced stats, and his rushing grade over at PFF (48.0) is not pretty. However, he's a volume-based RB2 given a likely 15-touch (or more) role as Seattle's de facto RB1.
Zack Moss, Bengals (@ KC, 26)
Moss handled 11 of the team's 17 backfield touches, and led Chase Brown in targets (4 to 3) and routes run (19 to 14). Moss is the team's lead back for now. The Bengals offense may struggle against the Chiefs, but Moss will likely see 10+ touches.
Devin Singletary, Giants (@ WAS, 32)
The Commanders yielded 182 total yards on 32 touches to Tampa running backs. Meanwhile, Singletary handled 14 of the team's 20 backfield touches, so if the game remains competitive, he should see 14+ touches in a nice matchup.
Wide Receivers
Xavier Worthy, Chiefs (vs. CIN, 25)
Worthy was a Sneaky Start last week and he more than delivered. In his first game, he played 63% of the snaps and turned three touches into 68 yards and two touchdowns. The low usage is a little worrisome, but I can’t argue with his efficiency. His role should continue to grow, especially if Marquise Brown remains out.
Keenan Allen, Bears (@ HOU, 28)
Allen is dealing with a knee injury, but if he can play against the Texans, it’s a pretty good spot. He had 11 targets in Week 1 and uncharacteristically dropped a touchdown. Rome Odunze is “day-to-day” with a sprained MCL.
Jameson Williams, Lions (vs. TB, 31)
Williams was a Sneaky Start in Week 1 and erupted for 5-121-1 on nine targets, and even added a 13-yard rush. Tampa struggled against the pass last season but wasn’t really tested by the Washington receivers in Week 1. I expect another good game from Williams.
Ladd McConkey, Chargers (@ CAR, 2)
The rookie led the team in targets (7), catches (5), yards (39), and caught Justin Herbert’s only touchdown pass. The Panthers were tough against receivers last season and only yielded 6-90-1 to Saints’ receivers last week, but the Chargers should be able to move the ball in Week 2.
Rashid Shaheed, Saints (@ DAL, 7)
Shaheed caught 3-of-5 targets for 73 yards, including a 59-yard touchdown. The Saints will likely need to throw the ball to keep pace with the Cowboys, even though it’s not a particularly good matchup. Shaheed is an ascending talent and can be locked into WR3/flex spots in most formats.
Allen Lazard, Jets (@ TEN, 22)
Lazard was second to Garrett Wilson in targets (9), and posted a terrific 6-89-2 as Wilson’s sidekick. It’s clear that the Jets are going to bring Mike Williams along slowly, and even when he’s up to speed, Lazard is likely to man the slot.
Alec Pierce, Colts (@ GB, 23)
Pierce caught 3-of-3 targets for 125 yards and a touchdown. That’s not reliable usage, but he played 84% of the snaps and will likely continue to serve as the team’s primary deep threat even when Josh Downs returns. And we know Anthony Richardson throws a nice deep ball.
Demarcus Robinson & Tyler Johnson, Rams (@ ARI, 10)
With Puka Nacua out a while, Matthew Stafford will need to lean on Robinson (92% snaps in Week 1) and Tyler Johnson (65%) while Cooper Kupp serves as the team’s clear WR1. Robinson posted 4-42 on seven targets while Johnson added 5-79 on seven targets, including a 63-yarder.
Tight Ends
Isaiah Likely, Ravens (vs. LV, 3)
Likely is an obvious play after his TE1 finish in Week 1. His game against the Chiefs will probably be his best game of the season, but it’s clear that the Ravens are going to run more two-TE sets to get Likely and Mark Andrews on the field at the same time. They both could deliver TE1 numbers if this keeps up.
Taysom Hill, Saints (@ DAL, 16)
Hill’s snaps were down from his preseason numbers, but he played 44% in the first half (hat tip to Nathan Jahnke of PFF for that stat) after he played an average of 37% of the snaps last season. The Saints aren’t going to be able to put it in cruise control at halftime against the Cowboys, so I expect Hill to be involved throughout.
Colby Parkinson, Rams (@ ARI, 23)
Parkinson posted 4-47 on five targets and ran a route of 43 of Matthew Stafford’s 53 dropbacks (81%). He should benefit from Puka Nacua’s absence.
Jordan Akins, Browns (@ JAX, 19)
David Njoku is going to miss time with a likely high-ankle sprain. Akins has produced throughout his career when he’s been called upon. In the 16 career games where he’s seen at least five targets, he has averaged 4.1 catches for 45 yards and 0.38 touchdowns.
