O-Line Rankings and Matchups to Exploit: Week 5

Oct 02, 2024

Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Evaluating offensive line play regarding its effect on fantasy football output has been a stone unturned throughout our game within a game. Here at 4for4, we’re dedicated to looking at fantasy pieces from all angles, including an offensive line's positive and negative impact on that team’s fantasy assets.

Below, I’m going to be digging into specific weekly matchups between offensive lines and the opposing defense's aFPA —one of the many useful tools available to us here at 4for4. Many sites publish raw fantasy points allowed by position, but 4for4 goes a step further and adjusts those numbers for a defense’s relative year-to-date schedule strength. These numbers will continue to strengthen through more data points as the season progresses and, when compared to a team’s advantages within the trenches, will expose fantasy pieces we may not have otherwise considered.

Editor's Note: Check out the complete set of Week 5 rankings here.

Let’s begin by diving into the passing game to see what offensive line/defense matchups we can exploit.

Favorable Quarterback Matchups

Quarterback Matchups
O-Line Ranking	Team	Opponent	aFPA	Difference
3	IND	JAX	32	29
2	BUF	HOU	28	26
8	GB	LAR	31	23
6	BAL	CIN	24	18
13	ATL	TB	23	10
18	SF	ARI	25	7
16	NO	KC	21	5
15	DEN	LVR	20	5
25	CLE	WAS	30	5
9	DAL	PIT	13	4
14	CIN	BAL	15	1
1	DET	BYE	1	0
10	LAC	BYE	10	0
4	PHI	BYE	4	0
30	TEN	BYE	30	0
29	CHI	CAR	29	0
27	JAX	IND	27	0
7	MIN	NYJ	7	0
5	KC	NO	4	-1
28	NYG	SEA	26	-2
12	NYJ	MIN	9	-3
22	ARI	SF	17	-5
24	PIT	DAL	18	-6
17	MIA	NE	11	-6
11	CAR	CHI	3	-8
21	TB	ATL	12	-9
20	WAS	CLE	10	-10
19	HOU	BUF	8	-11
31	LAR	GB	14	-17
23	SEA	NYG	6	-17
26	LVR	DEN	1	-25
32	NE	MIA	2	-30

Colts @ Jaguars

This is a tough spot this week, as we really want to exploit this matchup, but we don’t know quite yet who is going to be throwing the ball for the Colts. The difference between Anthony Richardson and Joe Flacco could be upwards of 15 pass attempts, which is obviously impactful when considering which (if any) wide receivers we’d like to throw into lineups.

Regardless, this profiles as either a huge bounce-back situation for Richardson or a week where both Josh Downs and Michael Pittman can be considered strong WR2s. The Jaguars' defense not only ranks dead last in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to both quarterbacks and wide receivers, but they also rank 24th in pressure rate (28.1%) and 31st in adjusted sack rate (4.4%). These numbers have all come with stud pass-rusher Josh Hines-Allen in the lineup, who is currently in the concussion protocol and questionable for Week 5.

Both Pittman and Downs can be considered respective WR2 and WR4s this week, but both get a massive boost if Flacco is out there dropping back 40+ times, especially if Jonathan Taylor ends up missing this game.

Bills @ Texans

Both left (Dion Dawkins) and right (Spencer Brown) allowed their first sacks on the season against the Baltimore Ravens last week, but the Bills offensive line still looks like one of the best units in the NFL. The team still ranks ninth in Sports Info Solutions’ blown block rate (1.58%) and fourth in FTN’s adjusted sack rate (4.9%). With Josh Allen’s propensity to make plays in the face of the defense (11.1% pressure-to-sack rate, the fourth lowest), the O-line’s job is that much easier.

This week, Buffalo takes on a Texans defense that has padded its stats against several struggling offenses. Out of their first four games, they have faced two of the least accurate quarterbacks in the league —Anthony Richardson and Trevor Lawrence rank in the bottom three in adjusted completion percentage— and Caleb Williams back in Week 2, who was very clearly still trying to get his feet under him. This is how Houston has yet to allow a 200-yard passer but still ranks 28th in QB aFPA.

Beyond the obvious auto-click of Allen, this sets up for Dalton Kincaid’s first blow-up spot, while Khalil Shakir should continue to eat, assuming his ankle allows him to suit up.

Packers @ Rams

The return of Jordan Love was predictably incredible for fantasy and may have even surpassed our expectations. Showing no ill effects of his Week 1 MCL injury, Love dropped back 56 times for 389 yards and four touchdowns. He also threw three interceptions, but we don’t care about that. An equally important bit of news from the game was Christian Watson going down with an ankle injury that head coach Matt LaFleur said would keep him out “at least a week or so.”

This has understandably caused a fervor surrounding Dontayvion Wicks, who more than doubled his 2024 season production by stringing together a 5-78-2 stat line on 13 targets. Around Wicks, the wide receiver roles have begun to lock in place, with Romeo Doubs sticking to the outside, Jayden Reed staying put in the slot, and Wicks being moved around the formation.

All three of them make for interesting fantasy pieces —to varying degrees— ahead of this matchup against a Rams defense that ranks 30th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing offenses, including their respective 26th and 31st ranks against wide receivers and quarterbacks. This is absolutely a start-em-if-you-got-em situation, including Tucker Kraft, who is an excellent streaming option.

Favorable Defensive Matchups

Broncos vs. Raiders

The Raiders, who already rank in the bottom sixth in both adjusted sack rate (10.0%) and adjusted line yards (3.57), came out of Week 4 with further bad news pertaining to their offense. Not only did Davante Adams request a trade, but they also lost starting right guard Dylan Parham with an Achilles injury that may impact his availability in Week 5. Obviously, Adams —who missed Week 4 with a hamstring injury— is more important to the offense as a whole, but the Raiders offensive line was already reeling in the first month of the season; they don’t need any more hiccups.

Not only should everyone not named Brock Bowers remain on fantasy benches, but the Broncos' defense should also be started anywhere they’re available.

Dolphins @ Patriots

Much like the Raiders above, the Patriots offensive line came out of Week 4 somehow worse than they went into it. While they sit 31st in both RB yards before contact (0.93) and adjusted sack rate (12.5%), they are dead last in pressure rate allowed (46.7%), and it has been announced that center (and captain) David Andrews will miss the rest of the season with a shoulder injury.

New England has allowed the fourth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing D/STs (11.7) and should be streamed against every single week from here on out.

Favorable Running Back Matchups

Running Back Matchups
O-Line Ranking	Team	Opponent	aFPA	Difference
3	IND	JAX	30	27
8	GB	LAR	26	18
6	BAL	CIN	22	16
19	HOU	BUF	32	13
11	CAR	CHI	24	13
2	BUF	HOU	12	10
15	DEN	LVR	25	10
5	KC	NO	11	6
24	PIT	DAL	29	5
7	MIN	NYJ	10	3
29	CHI	CAR	31	2
25	CLE	WAS	27	2
20	WAS	CLE	21	1
18	SF	ARI	18	0
1	DET	BYE	1	0
10	LAC	BYE	10	0
4	PHI	BYE	4	0
30	TEN	BYE	30	0
9	DAL	PIT	6	-3
22	ARI	SF	19	-3
27	JAX	IND	23	-4
32	NE	MIA	28	-4
12	NYJ	MIN	8	-4
13	ATL	TB	9	-4
23	SEA	NYG	15	-8
14	CIN	BAL	4	-10
17	MIA	NE	7	-10
28	NYG	SEA	17	-11
16	NO	KC	1	-15
21	TB	ATL	3	-18
31	LAR	GB	13	-18
26	LVR	DEN	5	-21

Ravens @ Bengals

While the Bengals defensive line will be returning both DE Myles Murphy and DT McKinnley Jackson in the coming weeks, neither one of them look like they’ll be able to impact the game this week, which means Derrick Henry and Justice Hill (and Lamar Jackson) will have an incredible matchup ahead of them. Left tackle Ronnie Stanley has returned to elite play through four weeks of action, and most importantly, he hasn’t missed a single snap of action, which has been rare over the last half-decade.

His play has been a catalyst in the Ravens’ 3.13 RB yards before contact, the second-highest mark in the league (Eagles). It doesn’t seem fair to have Henry running behind a line that can clear huge swaths of land before he’s even touched, but fantasy managers won’t complain. The only real question here is whether or not Hill should be started as an RB3/Flex play in this game.

The answer is probably “yes,” as the sportsbooks expect the Bengals to put up plenty of fight on the other side of the ball, pushing the total up to 50.5, the highest of the week. Hill has shown his floor (10.6 half-PPR points in Weeks 2+3) and his ceiling (27.1 points in Weeks 1+4), which are directly correlated to his target total. If Cincinnati pushes Baltimore into a passing game script, both Henry and Hill could end up with great fantasy performances.

Panthers @ Bears

The Panthers have looked like a whole entire NFL offense since their quarterback switch, racking up 812 total yards in these last two weeks, creating a situation that has their fantasy pieces viable. This has started up front with a unit that ranks first in SIS’ blown block rate (1.39%) and ninth in adjusted sack rate (4.85%), even while missing left guard Damien Lewis due to an elbow tear in Week 4 and part of Week 3.

Though the Bears have proven to be a stout defense through the first month of the year, they have been susceptible to the run, ranking 24th in RB aFPA. While they were able to stymie the Texans' rushing attack after Joe Mixon left with an injury in Week 2, Chicago has allowed 94 total yards (Tony Pollard), 135 total yards (Jonathan Taylor), and 104 total yards (Kyren Williams) performances in their three other matchups.

Chuba Hubbard has 20-opportunity upside as a possible top-10 play in Week 5.

Running Backs with Bad Matchups

As opposed to breaking down every bad matchup through the rest of the slate, here are some running backs I’m looking to avoid because of their poor offensive line and/or the strong defensive fronts they will be facing: