Week 11 NFL Betting Picks: Player Props

Nov 21, 2020

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Week 10 Recap: Week 10 marked the second straight week of losing a two-unit play. Those alone have buried our total units won. In games he played the duration of, Keenan Allen saw a season-low seven targets last week, which he converted into just three receptions. He had been on fire with Justin Herbert starting and was easily the No. 1 pass-catching option, but that changed against the Miami Dolphins. It’s rare to find a matchup where Allen doesn’t win, but he didn't versus the Dolphins—he just wasn’t his dominant self. In my column last week, I wrote: “Barring a long run from Daniel Jones, it’s tough to imagine many scenarios he winds up hitting the over” on 18.5 fantasy points. Well. He had a 40-yard touchdown run. Even though his passing stats and touchdowns were extremely underwhelming, that 10-point play obliterated the under. Rashard Higgins was Cleveland's leading receiver and accounted for more than a third of the total receiving yardage from Baker Mayfield. Despite swirling 30 MPH winds, Higgins found a way to bust our under. Even though last week wasn’t good overall in props, if you followed my advice in the Discord chat to “PointsBet” the under on Mayfield’s passing yards, it more than made up for losing a couple of units on props. We smashed a 74X under on Mayfield’s passing yards under. Even if you put 1/10th of a unit on that, you made 7.4 units. I won’t count that for bookkeeping purposes on props but money is money.

I’ll say it pretty much every week but if you aren’t already in the Discord chat you are missing out on a lot of closing line value as well as all my plays on island games. Every Thursday and Friday, I post any opening lines that jump out to me I think our subscribers should bet as soon as possible because they will likely move. I put eight bets in the Discord chat this week—seven of the eight bets already have closing line value. On to Week 11...

Week 11 DraftKings Player Prop Bets

Tom Brady Under 300.5 Passing Yards (-112)

Brady is very clearly not washed, despite being older than both Frank Gore and Larry Fitzgerald’s parents. Regardless of his age, this number is way too high. Brady has eclipsed 300 passing yards in just 3-of-10 games this season. He now squares up against a Rams defense ranked second in explosive pass rate allowed, ninth in pass defense DVOA, sixth in adjusted sack rate and first in yards per drive allowed. The Rams have allowed just one 300-yard passer this season—and that was to Josh Allen in Week 3 (311 passing yards), who arguably played his best game of the season. They have also held opposing quarterbacks under their passing yardage prop 88% of the time this season. We have Brady projected for 275 passing yards in this one. I would take this down to 290 passing yards.

Risk: 1.12 units to win 1 unit