NFL Week 12 Betting Picks: Against the Spread

Nov 27, 2020

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Thanksgiving Day Recap: With a 4- and 2-year-old at home, my wife and I watch a lot of Pixar movies. One of my kids’ favorites is “Ratatouille” and after watching Washington knock off the favored Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day, a line from food critic Anton Ego (voiced by Peter O’Toole) kept popping into my head.

“I don’t like food. I love it. And if I don’t love it, I don’t swallow.”

You’re probably confused, but it’s a simple connection, so allow me to explain.

While preparing for my Thanksgiving Day NFL betting column, I almost did a selection for both the Houston-Detroit game, as well as the Washington-Dallas matchup. With football fans likely to watch both games in between shoveling turkey into their mouths, I wanted to have a pick for both matchups. After all, it’s fun to have something riding on every game you’re going to watch.

Do you know what’s more fun? Winning one game instead of splitting two.

If you checked out my column yesterday, you know I laid the field goal with the Texans, who routed a sloppy Lions team in the first game of the NFL doubleheader. You’ll also know I did not do a write up on the Washington-Dallas game. That’s because I didn’t love the Cowboys, I merely liked them to cover as a small favorite over the Football Team.

While the odds don’t add up, for some reason it always seems easier to go 0-for-6 than 6-and-0. Limit your plays. Pick up small wins, which turn into big profits over time. Don’t chase.

Don’t just like a team when betting, love it. And if you don’t love that team, don’t bet them.

255 New York Giants at 256 Cincinnati Bengals

Spread: Giants -6
O/U: 44
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET, November 29, 2020

For the first two months of the season, the Bengals were a covering machine, cashing in six of their first eight games. Over the last two weeks, however, the wheels have fallen off, as they were blown out 36-10 by the Steelers as a 6.5-point road dog and were soundly defeated by Washington last Sunday 20-9 as a 2-point road pup. Last week also marked the end of rookie signal-caller Joe Burrow’s season, as he tore both his ACL and MCL in the loss. Reports are he will be replaced by Brandon Allen.

Allen gives the Bengals a better option than Ryan Finely, who was 0-3 as a starter (the offense averaged just 11.0 PPG over that span). That said, Allen was just called up from the practice squad this week and also struggled in three spot starts for the Broncos last season. He completed only 46% of his passes with a 3:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. For head coach Zac Taylor, it's damned if you do, damned if you don't when it comes to his current quarterback situation.

While the Bengals are trending downwards, the Giants are trending up. They’re seeking their first three-game winning streak since 2016, when they won six consecutive games from Weeks 6-12. Again, small sample size alert, but quarterback Daniel Jones has gone back-to-back games without committing a turnover. This is after he turned the ball over 20 times in his first 21 career games.

Jones doesn’t figure to see much pressure, as the Bengals have just 13 sacks on the year, which is the second-fewest in the league next to the Jaguars. The Giants also come in well-rested and with two weeks to prepare for an opponent that has no shot at the playoffs, just lost its franchise quarterback and one that hasn’t scored more than 10 points in back-to-back games the last two weeks.

NFL Week 12 ATS Pick: New York Giants -6