Wild Card NFL Betting Picks: Player Props

Jan 08, 2021

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Week 17 Recap: We continued to add to our wallets in Week 17 with another 6.91 units after going 10-4. We took a few really big positions on Jalen Hurts unders, Nick Chubb overs, and George Kittle overs. All three hit fairly easily. Ty Montgomery got stiffed at the goal line a few times and even though we got Montgomery at +300 anytime TD and he closed at -134, closing line value doesn’t feed families, winning does. The Bears-Packers game was my biggest whiff with Davante Adams and Allen Robinson both not being involved while David Montgomery racked up receptions as the Bears were in catch-up mode almost the entire second half. This ended my regular season at +40.42 units with a 59.2% win rate.

As for this weekend, we already got down on Tom Brady under 302.5 passing yards over at PointsBet on Tuesday night. The number is already at 294.5—one of the many reasons it’s important to not only subscribe but turn the alerts on in our Discord chat. To access this, go to “Role Assign” and hit the money bag sign under the “Weekly Prop Plays” post. Onto Wild Card Weekend...

Wild Card DraftKings Player Prop Bets

J.D. McKissic Under 21.5 Rushing Yards (-118)

This number is off from the market with Fanduel posting it at 18.5 and PointsBet floating it at 17.5. With both Peyton Barber and Antonio Gibson active, J.D. McKissic turned just two carries into zero rushing yards last week in Washington’s win over Philadelphia. Our projections have Mckissic at 9.0 rushing yards. The matchup is also extremely difficult as Tampa Bay ranks sixth in rushing EPA since Week 9 and ranked first in run defense DVOA over the course of the whole season. The Washington Football Team are also heavy underdogs and could be forced into negative game script early on in the game which would eliminate their desire to run the ball much. There’s a good chance McKissic only sees two-to-three carries.

Risk: 1.18 units to win 1 unit

Michael Thomas Over 69.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

This is more of a speculative bet and relying on what we have seen in years past from both Drew Brees and Michael Thomas. They haven’t played much together this season—only one full game (Week 9 versus Tampa Bay). The Saints thoroughly dominated the Bucs (38-3) and Thomas led the team with six targets. As the focal point of the Saints passing game and a juicy matchup against the Bears (dead last in EPA over the past eight weeks), I’m willing to fade the recency bias of Thomas’s injury. This is also probably the lowest number you will see with Thomas and Brees both starting for the foreseeable future.

Risk: 1.12 units to win 1 unit