Best Fantasy Football Matchups: Week 15

Schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed, or aFPA, is 4for4’s answer to biased statistics. By removing bias, we can level the playing field and compare matchups in an "apples-to-apples" manner. As the season moves along, the data will change. Regardless, aFPA is arguably the best tool available to gain an edge when using waivers and building lineups.

Another point to make: I could offer players such as Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes pretty much every week, especially when they face awful units according to aFPA. That does everyone a disservice, so I will do my best to avoid players rostered in the majority of fantasy leagues.

Editor's note: Check out the complete set of Week 15 rankings here.

Here are the best plays for Week 15.

Mike White or Joe Flacco vs. Detroit Lions

Despite a 3:2 TD-to-INT ratio in three starts, Mike White has cracked double-digit fantasy points in each outing. He toughed out a close loss to Buffalo in Week 14 and is considered day-to-day ahead of a juicy home matchup against the Detroit Lions. Detroit continues to be cellar dwellers across the aFPA landscape but is at its worst against opposing quarterbacks. Only two teams allow more schedule-adjusted fantasy points to the position. The Lions can put up points, topping 30 in 7 games. This is going to be a difficult matchup for them against a strong Jets defense, but with both teams getting consistent offensive line play of late, this game could end up a shootout. White has topped 300 passing yards in two of three starts.

Flacco would be a Superflex/Two-QB league option if White cannot suit up in Week 15.

Pierre Strong Jr. at Las Vegas Raiders

Damien Harris (thigh) missed Week 14, and Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle) exited Week 14’s win against the Cardinals. Strong was asked to help fill the void at running back and had 90 total yards and a rushing touchdown on seven total touches. He produced 68 more yards than fellow rookie RB Kevin Harris, despite both finding the end zone. Strong has draft capital attached to him and has better speed and burst than Harris, which would lead to more expected production. Week 14 was awful in terms of skill position injuries, making Strong a priority pick-up and RB2/Flex play in Week 15.

Alec Pierce at Minnesota Vikings

This is an elite matchup for Michael Pittman Jr., but there are zero reasons not to play Alec Pierce. The Vikings are 32nd in WR aFPA, allowing 3.9 more schedule-adjusted fantasy points to the position per game than the 31st-ranked Titans. Pierce has shown promise working with Matt Ryan, and since the sam Ehlinger experiment is long in the rearview mirror, Pierce has a legitimate upside each week. Minnesota has allowed at least two WRs to reach double-digit PPR points in five straight games, including four in Week 14.

Greg Dulcich vs. Arizona Cardinals

It is likely that both the Broncos and Cardinals will start backup QBs in Week 15. In the case of Dulcich, it is not as bad seeing passes from Brett Rypien if he starts. Rypien came in cold in Week 14 after Russell Wilson left with a concussion. Rypien targeted the TE position twice in eight attempts. Neither went to Dulcich, but with a week of practice, it should help his chances of being the lead TE target. The Cardinals continue to allow the most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing TEs and have been excellent against WRs (10th in WR aFPA). Dulcich is still in the TE1 picture for Week 15 in the best matchup of his young career.

Chiefs Defense at Houston Texans

Kansas City is usually a defense to target, but the Houston Texans are struggling with poor QB play and WR injuries. That is one of the reasons they rank 32nd in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses. If Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins remain out in Week 15, it will be easier for the Chiefs to target Chris Moore, who looked like a Pro Bowler in Week 14 against the Cowboys. The Texans are also expected to be without their best Dameon Pierce this week, making it imperative that Rex Burkhead and Dare Ogunbowale have ceiling weeks.

That isn't easy to expect because Kansas City allows 86 rushing yards per game. The Chiefs' offense can score (duh), which puts a lot of pressure on Davis Mills and the Texans' passing game. K.C. has not allowed a 300-yard passer since Week 7 and can rack up fantasy points early to offset a potential blowout game script.