Daigle's Top NFL DFS Picks: Week 15

Dec 16, 2022

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I begin my research for DFS tournaments every week by sifting through what our opponents are doing and engineering lineups backward from there.

These top plays, though viable for cash games (which will be noted throughout), are suggested specifically for tournaments and are weighted for ceiling projection, matchup, ownership, and value. I will include any thoughts on game theory within my reasoning for each player.

They are listed in order of descending price, not by my personal rankings

More Week 15 DFS Strategy: Cash Game Breakdown | GPP Breakdown | WR/CB Matchups | Top Contrarian Plays

Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert, Chargers ($7,200 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel)

Even their opponents are aware the Titans haven’t allowed a single player over 66 rushing yards since Week 1, turning to the air for a league-high 40 pass attempts per game. That voluminous outlook bodes well for Herbert, who is already averaging 43 attempts in 13 starts. His increased 72% completion rate with Keenan Allen on the field this year could lead to the same success Jalen Hurts (380-3-0) and Trevor Lawrence (368-3-0) had in Tennessee’s last two contests.

Dak Prescott, Cowboys ($8,300 DK, $7,500 FD)

Only Russell Wilson has failed to finish as a top-12 quarterback against the Jaguars since Week 6, permitting 22 fantasy points and 285 passing yards per game to opposing signal-callers in that time. Additionally allowing the third-highest rate of passing touchdowns including a league-high nine scores inside the red zone over the last month, Prescott suddenly finds himself in a slate-breaking spot if everything goes according to plan.

Running Backs

Austin Ekeler, Chargers ($8,500 DK, $8,700 FD)

Ekeler remains a unique stacking partner with Herbert considering the Titans have allowed the third-most catches per game to opposing backfields. Tennessee’s weekly 63.6 yards allowed to runners is a moot point since Ekeler, the RB2 in points per game, has totaled fewer than 50 rushing yards in seven of his last eight games.

Derrick Henry, Titans ($8,000 DK, $8,900 FD)

Averaging 22 fantasy points in seven wins compared to 12 in six losses, Henry’s ceiling remains the highest at his position against a Chargers defense being road grated for league-highs in yards per carry (5.5) and yards after contact per attempt (3.6).

Alvin Kamara, Saints ($6,800 DK, $7,600 FD)

Not only has Kamara received 85% of New Orleans’ backfield touches in four starts without Mark Ingram (knee) this year (compared to 71% in seven games alongside him), he smashed his previous soft matchups against the Seahawks (29-194), Cardinals (18-105), and Raiders (27-158-3); the Saints have not played a defense ranked inside the top-10 in average fantasy points allowed to running backs since October.

Miles Sanders, Eagles ($6,500 DK, $7,800 FD)

With the Eagles favored by 9.0 points on the road, another game script conducive to Sanders’ ceiling outcome is in play. His 18-plus touches in two of his last three performances keep him live against a Chicago defense permitting the sixth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to enemy backfields.

Isiah Pacheco, Chiefs ($5,900 DK, $7,600 FD)

Jerick McKinnon closed as the overall RB1 in Week 14 but it was Pacheco who out-touched him 16-13 in his fifth consecutive game with at least 15 touches. Friendly reminder Houston is allowing the fourth-most aFPA per game to opposing backfields including last week’s gift of two top-11 RBs.

Wide Receivers

Ja’Marr Chase, Bengals ($8,300 DK, $9,000 FD)

Chase has soaked up 25.8% and 45.4% of Cincinnati’s targets in two games since returning from injury. Although the Bucs are a daunting matchup on paper, its secondary sits top-10 in completion rate and yards per attempt through the air over the last month.

CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys ($7,300 DK, $8,100 FD)

Bolstering a 26% target share since Prescott returning from injury, Lamb pops with a top-three value in our lineup optimizer on FanDuel in particular.

Mike Williams, Chargers ($6,300 DK, $7,200 FD)

Even in totaling 6-116-1 in his return from injury, Williams left meat on the bone in playing only 65% of snaps, his lowest total in any healthy game this year. We expect that usage to increase twofold in his second game against a Titans defense permitting league-highs in yards per target and yards per snap to opposing boundary receivers.

Chris Moore, Texans ($4,200 DK, $6,000 FD)

Moore is yet again in another elite spot sans Brandin Cooks (“foot”) and Nico Collins (groin) considering it’s Moore who benefitted with 40.7% of the team’s targets, 58.2% of receiving yards, and 56.6% of air yards. He’s a mainstay in both cash games and tournaments, even if he closes at 20% ownership.

Rashid Shaheed, Saints ($3,200 DK, $5,400 FD)

Shaheed quietly ran just two fewer routes than Chris Olave prior to New Orleans’ bye, increasing his target share for the third consecutive game (7.1% < 10% < 13.7%). The Falcons fortuitously sit sixth in average fantasy points allowed to opposing wideouts.

Tight Ends

Dalton Schultz, Cowboys ($4,400 DK, $6,500 FD)

The Jags continue getting pummelled by opposing tight ends, permitting league-highs in yards per target and yards per snap to the position. Schultz also leads the Cowboys with seven end zone targets since Prescott returned, the next closest being Michael Gallup with two.

Chig Okonkwo, Titans ($3,100 DK, $5,100 FD)

Tennesee's primary two-tight ends personnel the past two weeks has allowed Okonkwo to flourish as the TE9 and TE2 with a 17.4% target share and 53% route rate without Treylon Burks (concussion). Expect more of the same since Burks has already been ruled out for Sunday. I would not play Chig and Henry in the same lineup.