10 Things You Need to Know About Week 17 for Fantasy Football

Championship week is here! And if we’re being honest, you probably already have your starting lineup locked in stone. If your team was good enough to get to this stage, you have some studs on your squad. But just in case you’re in a tricky spot, I’ll start this week with the passing and rushing matchups for Week 17. And then I’ll dig into the other things you need to know. As always, feel free to reach out to me on Bluesky with any specific questions.

Week 17 Passing Efficiency Matchups

The Bills have a 93rd-percentile passing matchup this week. But just like we talked about last week, it’s hard to get excited about Josh Allen’s receiving weapons. No individual pass catcher exceeded 26 yards last week. The target share was still there for Khalil Shakir even if the production wasn’t. But beyond Shakir, Josh Allen, and James Cook, all other Bills should be left on your bench. I’ll dig into Dalton Kincaid more later on.

The Buccaneers have the next strongest matchup this week as they play the Panthers. And it was another great performance from Jalen McMillan in Week 16. He had one fewer target than Mike Evans and finished with 105 air yards, which was also just behind Evans’ number. In a strong matchup, McMillan’s trust meter is at an all-time high.

Week 17 Rushing Efficiency Matchups

The Eagles have a 99th-percentile rushing matchup on paper. But with Jalen Hurts unlikely to play, we’ll have to strongly temper expectations for Saquon Barkley. When Hurts went down with a concussion, the Commander's defense stacked the box, daring Kenny Pickett to beat them with down-the-field passes. And he almost pulled it off if it wasn’t for an untimely DeVonta Smith drop. The Cowboys’ run defense has also recently looked better than their 32nd ranking indicates.

The Buccaneers, Bills, and Lions all have 93rd-percentile or better matchups this week. Expect another strong showing from Bucky Irving against the Panthers. You’re obviously starting James Cook given the insane TD run he’s on. And Jahmyr Gibbs is likely to be ranked as the number one RB this week. The Lions are dead-set on giving Gibbs all of the red zone touches with David Montgomery out, handing him three consecutive goalline carries last week on one drive.

Chargers Defense and RB Targets

Bo Nix finished his Week 16 game against the Chargers with a 3.3-yard average target depth. According to Benjamin Solak, that was the 2nd-lowest aDoT in a game for any QB this season with at least 20 attempts. The lowest was Bryce Young’s 3.0-yard aDoT against…this same Chargers defense. It was a solid game for Nix, averaging 0.18 EPA per play. But that value was driven exclusively by his pass catchers in a game where Javonte Williams saw an insane 11 targets, according to SIS.

The graph below shows the percentage of targets that a defense allows to opposing RBs on the x-axis and the aDoT of those targets on the y-axis. You’ll find the Chargers in the bottom right. They’ve given up the 2nd-highest target share to opposing RBs this year with a below-average target depth. Credit to Jesse Minter’s scheme to force opposing offenses into these low-value attempts. But for fantasy, it boosts Rhamondre Stevenson’s floor in Week 17 despite the tough matchup against this strong Chargers defense.

The Return of Rushing Efficiency for the Dolphins

It’s been a brutal year for the Dolphins on the ground. Going into last week, they had the 2nd-lowest rushing EPA per attempt of any team. They were far too close to the outlier Raiders than any Dolphins fan would like. Where De'Von Achane has saved fantasy managers is through his receiving role. His 15 slot targets are second to only Alvin Kamara and double the number of 3rd-place. But we got some hope for the run game in Week 16 when the Dolphins hit 85th-percentile rushing efficiency. Achane gained 120 yards on only 17 attempts. That included a 50-yard run that was just his 3rd run of 18+ yards this season.

It was outside run attempts that were clearly working for the Dolphins last week. On the season, those attempts to the outside weren’t better than to any other area. But in Week 16, the Dolphins had the 2nd-most outside runs in the league with 16 and they averaged a whopping 0.38 EPA per attempt, according to SIS. Their 14 other attempts averaged -0.18 EPA/attempt, around their season-long average. I'll be on the lookout if those outside attempts continue to have success in Week 17 or if that was a specific matchup advantage against the 49ers. However, the latter feels unlikely given the talent the 49ers have at linebacker.

The Return of the Ravens’ Pass Defense

It’s been a tale of two halves for the Ravens’ pass defense. From Weeks 1-9, the Ravens allowed 43 explosive pass plays, defined as 20+ yard receptions. That was the most in the league with only the Jaguars in the same vicinity. But from Weeks 10-16, they’ve allowed only 11, which is the 2nd-fewest behind only the 49ers. So, that’s about 5 explosive pass plays a game early in the season down to about 2 in recent weeks.

The graph below shows defensive pass EPA on the x-axis and rush EPA on the y-axis. And we’re only filtering for Weeks 10-16 when the Ravens have been able to limit those explosive pass plays. You’ll find the Ravens in the top-right with the league’s best defenses. For fantasy, that means we should see tougher sledding for the Texans in the championship game. And the Texans have been decimated at WR, with both Stefon Diggs and now Tank Dell out for the year. Beyond Nico Collins and possibly Dalton Schultz if you’re in a pinch at TE, you’re not starting any other Texans pass catcher this week.

Chuba Hubbard: Revelation

Chuba Hubbard has been absolutely excellent this season for the Panthers. In Week 16, he ran against stacked boxes on 56% of his attempts but still somehow managed 0.36 EPA per attempt. Among RBs with at least 200 attempts, he’s 3rd in rushing yards over expected (RYOE) per attempt. That’s behind only Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry. And he’s first in Next Gen Stats’ version of success rate.

It’s a tough matchup in Week 17 against a Buccaneers defense that is top-10 on the season in defensive rushing EPA. But I don’t see how you leave him on your bench this week. Especially after his 152 rushing yards and two-touchdown day against the Cardinals last week.

Justin Herbert: Play Action Monster

Speaking of excellent, Justin Herbert has excelled lately despite the Chargers’ lack of real NFL weapons. His 0.48 EPA per play and 58.5% success rate in Week 16 were both season highs. And as we’ve discussed in previous weeks, that value is being driven by play-action passes. The graph below shows the number of play-action attempts on the x-axis and EPA per play-action attempt on the y-axis. You’ll find the Chargers in the top-right of the graph. They’re 4th in total play-action attempts this season and 6th in EPA per attempt on that high volume.

It’s not a great game environment for Herbert in the fantasy championship, unfortunately. The 42.5-point game total is on the lower end of the slate. But we should expect Herbert’s efficiency to continue as the Patriots are bottom-5 in defensive pass efficiency. You’re starting Ladd McConkey and that’s about it for the Chargers.

Dalton Kincaid: Target Deception

I promised I’d dig more into Dalton Kincaid. He earned seven targets in Week 16. That’s the good news. The bad news is that turned into only four receptions for 15 yards. And all of the incompletions were valuable targets down the field. The split of his 15 receiving yards was -1 from air yards and 16 from yards after the catch. It’s a tough way to get by. He’s also still competing with Dawson Knox for targets. Though Knox only earned two targets last week, he was at least able to catch something down the field as he beat Kincaid’s receiving yards on five fewer targets.

Kincaid also sometimes loses snaps when the Bills opt to trot out six offensive linemen. For context, only eight NFL teams have five or more passing attempts with six offensive linemen on the field this season. The Bills have 34. And they’re easily the most successful team, averaging almost 0.25 EPA per attempt. So, Kincaid’s deep targets aren’t hitting, he’s competing with a massive cast of other Bills receivers, and he’s losing snaps to a sixth offensive lineman at the highest rate in the league. I don’t see how you trust him in your fantasy championship.

Chig Okonkwo: Hitting at the Right Time

Speaking of TEs, Chig Okonkwo is quietly having a fantastic fantasy post-season. After doing almost nothing all season, he’s had back-to-back games of 10+ targets. He hasn’t fallen below a 27% target share in that span. Now, he’s had the two easiest matchups for TEs the last two weeks, getting to play both the Bengals and the Colts. But the offense as a whole has played much better with Mason Rudolph under center, as compared to Will Levis. And Okonkwo again gets a fantastic matchup versus the Jaguars in Week 17. He’s a deep-league play but available if you’re in a pinch.

Olamide Zaccheaus: The New WR2 in Washington

Speaking of deep-league plays, you could do worse than Olamide Zaccheaus this week. Noah Brown was placed on IR following the Commanders’ Week 13 win over the Titans. And Olamide Zaccheaus has stepped up in Brown’s absence. He’s been the clear WR2 for fantasy purposes over the last two games. He trails Terry McLaurin by only four targets (16 to 12) and 27 receiving yards (133 to 106) over that span. Jayden Daniels just dropped 36 points on one of the best defenses in the league with Zaccheaus and Jameson Crowder playing crucial roles. Starting Zaccheaus this week is based more on trusting the Commanders’ 4th-ranked passing EPA than it is on Zaccheaus himself. And again, this is only for deep leagues where your team is facing an unexpected injury.

Now go win that fantasy championship!