Who Are the Most Consistent Fantasy Football Receivers?
In an effort to identify the most consistent receivers, I’m using the same process as I used in the quarterback and running back studies. Utilizing the Coefficient of Variation (CV), which is the ratio of the player’s standard deviation to his per game average, I can calculate his overall consistency.
CV = standard deviation / PPG
Standard deviation measures the amount of variation within a data set, and dividing it by the mean allows us to compare two players with very different levels of production (e.g. DeAndre Hopkins and Willie Snead).
CV is typically expressed as a percentage, and the lower the CV the more consistent the player.
Below is a table with the top 90 wide receivers (according to their two-year PPG average in PPR formats), two-year CV and 2015 CV. I excluded Week 17 since teams often rest starters that week and I didn’t want that to throw off our numbers. Otherwise, all regular season games are included, including injury-shortened games since injuries/durability are part of a player’s overall consistency.
| Player Name | Pos | Team | 2-YEAR PPG | PPG RANK | CV | 2015 CV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Decker | WR | NYJ | 14.2 | 28 | 38% | 21% |
| Jeremy Butler | WR | BAL | 7.9 | 73 | 43% | 43% |
| Alshon Jeffery | WR | CHI | 17.3 | 9 | 44% | 49% |
| Julian Edelman | WR | NE | 17.2 | 11 | 45% | 41% |
| Odell Beckham | WR | NYG | 22.8 | 2 | 45% | 43% |
| Antonio Brown | WR | PIT | 23.4 | 1 | 45% | 59% |
| Julio Jones | WR | ATL | 21.9 | 3 | 46% | 42% |
| Golden Tate | WR | DET | 15.1 | 23 | 46% | 47% |
| Kelvin Benjamin | WR | CAR | 15.1 | 24 | 46% | - |
| Jordy Nelson | WR | GB | 20.9 | 4 | 47% | - |
| Demaryius Thomas | WR | DEN | 18.8 | 5 | 48% | 34% |
| Randall Cobb | WR | GB | 15.5 | 19 | 49% | 61% |
| Brandon Marshall | WR | NYJ | 17.6 | 8 | 50% | 36% |
| Jarvis Landry | WR | MIA | 14.4 | 26 | 50% | 45% |
| Nick Toon | WR | STL | 6.9 | 85 | 50% | - |
| Brandin Cooks | WR | NO | 15.4 | 20 | 51% | 50% |
| Willie Snead | WR | NO | 12.6 | 35 | 52% | 52% |
| DeAndre Hopkins | WR | HOU | 18.1 | 7 | 52% | 42% |
| Jerricho Cotchery | WR | CAR | 7.5 | 76 | 54% | 61% |
| Rueben Randle | WR | NYG | 10.9 | 44 | 54% | 52% |
| Anquan Boldin | WR | SF | 12.7 | 34 | 55% | 59% |
| Emmanuel Sanders | WR | DEN | 17.2 | 10 | 55% | 69% |
| Marvin Jones | WR | CIN | 11.0 | 43 | 57% | 57% |
| T.Y. Hilton | WR | IND | 16.0 | 16 | 57% | 59% |
| Jeremy Maclin | WR | KC | 17.1 | 12 | 57% | 55% |
| Allen Robinson | WR | JAX | 16.2 | 15 | 57% | 53% |
| Marques Colston | WR | NO | 10.3 | 51 | 57% | 74% |
| Dez Bryant | WR | DAL | 15.8 | 17 | 58% | 64% |
| Michael Crabtree | WR | OAK | 12.4 | 36 | 58% | 48% |
| Larry Fitzgerald | WR | ARI | 14.7 | 25 | 59% | 50% |
| Martavis Bryant | WR | PIT | 15.3 | 21 | 59% | 53% |
| John Brown | WR | ARI | 11.6 | 38 | 59% | 43% |
| Mike Evans | WR | TB | 15.2 | 22 | 59% | 60% |
| Josh Gordon | WR | CLE | 10.9 | 45 | 59% | - |
| Pierre Garcon | WR | WAS | 10.9 | 46 | 60% | 40% |
| Stefon Diggs | WR | MIN | 12.3 | 37 | 61% | 61% |
| Cecil Shorts | WR | HOU | 9.4 | 56 | 62% | 56% |
| Calvin Johnson | WR | DET | 16.2 | 14 | 63% | 59% |
| Roddy White | WR | ATL | 10.5 | 47 | 63% | 64% |
| Vincent Jackson | WR | TB | 11.4 | 41 | 64% | 83% |
| A.J. Green | WR | CIN | 16.8 | 13 | 64% | 60% |
| James Jones | WR | GB | 11.5 | 39 | 64% | 75% |
| Amari Cooper | WR | OAK | 13.9 | 30 | 64% | 64% |
| DeSean Jackson | WR | WAS | 12.9 | 31 | 65% | 75% |
| Mike Wallace | WR | MIN | 10.4 | 50 | 66% | 94% |
| Malcom Floyd | WR | SD | 9.3 | 58 | 66% | 95% |
| Brandon LaFell | WR | NE | 11.5 | 40 | 67% | 40% |
| Justin Hunter | WR | TEN | 7.2 | 82 | 67% | 49% |
| Kendall Wright | WR | TEN | 11.2 | 42 | 67% | 75% |
| Jordan Matthews | WR | PHI | 12.8 | 33 | 68% | 62% |
| Doug Baldwin | WR | SEA | 14.0 | 29 | 68% | 63% |
| Allen Hurns | WR | JAX | 12.8 | 32 | 68% | 52% |
| Andrew Hawkins | WR | CLE | 9.3 | 59 | 69% | 53% |
| Harry Douglas | WR | TEN | 8.1 | 72 | 70% | 66% |
| Keenan Allen | WR | SD | 15.5 | 18 | 70% | 59% |
| Sammy Watkins | WR | BUF | 14.3 | 27 | 71% | 68% |
| Terrance Williams | WR | DAL | 8.9 | 64 | 71% | 61% |
| Corey Brown | WR | CAR | 7.3 | 77 | 71% | 71% |
| Victor Cruz | WR | NYG | 10.5 | 48 | 71% | - |
| Andre Johnson | WR | IND | 9.2 | 60 | 71% | 103% |
| Stevie Johnson | WR | SD | 9.1 | 62 | 72% | 61% |
| Robert Woods | WR | BUF | 9.3 | 57 | 72% | 73% |
| Jermaine Kearse | WR | SEA | 7.8 | 74 | 73% | 79% |
| Steve L Smith | WR | BAL | 18.7 | 6 | 75% | 75% |
| Kenny Britt | WR | STL | 8.2 | 70 | 75% | 80% |
| Jamison Crowder | WR | WAS | 7.2 | 81 | 76% | 76% |
| Percy Harvin | WR | BUF | 10.1 | 52 | 76% | 78% |
| Davante Adams | WR | GB | 7.2 | 78 | 76% | 70% |
| Michael Floyd | WR | ARI | 10.4 | 49 | 76% | 75% |
| Tavon Austin | WR | STL | 9.2 | 61 | 77% | 71% |
| Ty Montgomery | WR | GB | 7.0 | 83 | 78% | 78% |
| Nate Washington | WR | HOU | 9.0 | 63 | 79% | 83% |
| Eddie Royal | WR | CHI | 9.9 | 53 | 79% | 71% |
| Miles Austin | WR | PHI | 6.8 | 87 | 80% | 124% |
| Kenny Stills | WR | MIA | 8.5 | 68 | 80% | 102% |
| Mohamed Sanu | WR | CIN | 8.8 | 65 | 81% | 77% |
| Markus Wheaton | WR | PIT | 8.7 | 67 | 82% | 100% |
| Torrey Smith | WR | SF | 9.5 | 55 | 83% | 93% |
| Tyler Lockett | WR | SEA | 9.8 | 54 | 87% | 87% |
| Brian Hartline | WR | CLE | 7.2 | 80 | 87% | 84% |
| Kamar Aiken | WR | BAL | 8.1 | 71 | 92% | 59% |
| Travis Benjamin | WR | CLE | 8.3 | 69 | 93% | 64% |
| Donte Moncrief | WR | IND | 8.8 | 66 | 95% | 61% |
| Dorial Green-Beckham | WR | TEN | 6.7 | 90 | 104% | 104% |
| Andre Holmes | WR | OAK | 6.7 | 89 | 105% | 137% |
| Leonard Hankerson | WR | ATL | 7.7 | 75 | 108% | 97% |
| Seth Roberts | WR | OAK | 7.0 | 83 | 109% | 109% |
| Danny Amendola | WR | NE | 6.8 | 88 | 109% | 74% |
| Rishard Matthews | WR | MIA | 6.9 | 86 | 110% | 69% |
| Ted Ginn | WR | CAR | 7.2 | 79 | 115% | 72% |
A few thoughts…
- Like the running back and quarterback positions, productive players tend to be consistent. Eleven of the top 12 PPG receivers finished in the top 25 in two-year CV. The lone exception was Steve L Smith. Eight of the top 12 PPG receivers finished in the top 13 in two-year CV.
- Over the past two years, no receiver has been more consistent than Eric Decker (38%). He was ridiculously consistent in 2015 (21%), posting 80-plus yards and/or a touchdown in each of his 15 games played. His teammate, Brandon Marshall (36%), wasn’t too shabby either as he registered the third-best CV of 2015.
- I believe Golden Tate’s CV (46%) is a sign of good things to come since he’s likely to see WR1-type targets now that Calvin Johnson is retired. Over the last two seasons, in 11 games in which Johnson was questionable, doubtful or out, Tate averaged 6.6 receptions for 77 yards and 0.73 TD.
- Julian Edelman is extremely consistent (45%) and has finished in the top 18 on a PPG basis in each of the last three years. Yet he’s the 19th WR off the board in early PPR drafts. Go figure.
- Alshon Jeffery’s consistency numbers are encouraging. He’s a real threat to join the top 5 if he can stay healthy.
- Considering his big-play ability and his terrible hands, it’s not surprising to see Ted Ginn coming in with the highest two-year CV in the league.
- DeAndre Hopkins improved his consistency in 2015, posting the 7th-best CV last year. John Brown also made a big leap, consistency-wise.
Season-long owners in regular formats will want to favor more consistent players, while a higher CV may actually be more desirable in deep best ball formats since you can cash in on the big games without being hurt by the duds.
