NFL Wild Card Betting Picks: Against the Spread

Jan 08, 2021

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Week 17 Recap: My contrarian play on the Bears blew up in my face, as they hung with the Packers for about 2.5 quarters before Aaron Rodgers and Co. took Chicago behind the woodshed. The Falcons also collapsed in the fourth quarter (what else is new?), failing to cover as a 6.5-point underdog in Tampa despite the game being close at the start of the fourth quarter. My lone victory was the 49ers (+7), who nearly allowed a front-door cover by the Seahawks, only to supply a backdoor cover with a meaningless touchdown in the closing minutes.

At 22-27-3 ATS, I had a terrible regular season—my worst in three years since starting this column at 4for4. All I can do is turn the page and see if we can’t make a profitable run in the playoffs, starting with Wild Card Weekend.

145 Tampa Bay Bucs at 146 Washington Football Team

Spread: Bucs -8.5
Total: 44.5
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET, Saturday, January 9, 2021

The Bucs appear to be peaking at the right time. They won their last four games of the regular season and Tom Brady put up the best numbers of his career over that span, completing 69.0% of his passes for 1,333 yards and 9.8 YPA with 12 touchdowns.

That said, Tampa Bay’s play over the last month has created an inflated line for the Bucs’ Wild Card matchup with Washington on Saturday night. Bettors are well aware of the Football Team’s struggles offensively and a quick peek at this week’s injury report reveals more trouble ahead for Washington, as QB Alex Smith, RB Antonio Gibson and WR Terry McLaurin are all questionable with various injuries.

Still, Washington wasn’t going to upset Tampa this weekend by lighting up the scoreboard. The Football Team ranked 31st in offensive efficiency this season and it owns the fourth-worst offensive efficiency metric by a playoff team in the last 15 seasons, according to ESPN Stats & Information. That said, the three teams with lower rates—2010 Seahawks, 2016 Texans and 2011 Broncos—all won their first playoff game the year of their offensive inefficiency.

This matchup will boil down to whether or not the Bucs can win enough of their one-on-one matchups versus Washington in the trenches. It’s not just Chase Young who puts pressure on opposing quarterbacks, as Montez Sweat finished with a team-high nine sacks, and both interior defensive linemen—Jonathan Allen and Da'Ron Payne—can push the pocket as well.

How do you stop Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski from beating you? By ensuring Tom Brady doesn’t have time to survey the field to find the matchups he loves. The Saints beat Brady twice this season by giving him limited time to throw and while Washington doesn’t do a lot of things well offensively, the Football Team finished third this season in Pass Rush Win Rate, defeating blocks within 2.5 seconds 50% of the time.

Whether it’s Smith or Taylor Heinicke who starts on Saturday night, Washington’s quarterback simply can’t lose the game before the team has an opportunity to win it. Or in our case, cover this inflated number.

NFL Wild Card Weekend ATS Pick: Washington Football Team +8.5

147 Baltimore Ravens at 148 Tennessee Titans

Spread: Ravens -3
Total: 54.5
Time: 1:05 p.m. ET, Sunday, January 10, 2021

I’m aware of Lamar Jackson’s struggles in the playoffs, which includes a rough outing in the Divisional round last year against this same Tennessee team. That said, I firmly believe Jackson picks up his first career playoff victory on Saturday afternoon in Nashville.