Week 4 NFL Betting Picks: Against the Spread

Oct 02, 2020

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Week 3 Recap: My plays started off well last Sunday, as the Bengals covered as a 4.5-point road dog in Philadelphia and had every opportunity to beat the Eagles outright. Things crashed and burned after that, however. The Cardinals lost outright to the Lions as a 5.5-point favorite following Kyler Murray’s three turnovers and the Broncos didn’t stand much of a chance versus Tom Brady and the Bucs despite getting 5.5 points as a home dog. The 1-2 week dropped my 2020 ATS season record to 4-6. While it’s not the start I envisioned, I have faith we’ll turn things around this weekend.

251 Indianapolis Colts at 252 Chicago Bears

Spread: Colts -2.5
O/U: 43
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, October 4

I know everyone is ready to fade the fraudulent 3-0 Bears, who should be 1-2 after the Lions (Week 1) and Falcons (Week 3) handed them victories, but Sunday isn’t the time. The Colts’ 36 points a week ago in their win over the Jets is a bit deceiving from an offensive perspective, as 16 of those points came from their defense. Speaking of which, Indy currently ranks No. 1 in total defense and the unit was underrated coming into the season. That said, the Colts have also faced three opponents—Jaguars, Vikings, Jets—who are a combined 1-8 on the season. That one victory? Jacksonville in Week 1...over the Colts.

I’m not suggesting Chicago’s record to this point isn’t a house of cards ready to crumble at some point. If the Falcons weren’t inventing new ways to lose games and drive the knife further into the sides of their dwindling fan base, the Bears would be 2-1 entering play this week. That fact also doesn’t take away from the notion Matt Nagy’s offense is in better hands with Nick Foles than it was in Mitchell Trubisky. It’s not Trubisky’s fault the Bears traded up to select him in the 2017 NFL Draft, bypassing Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson in the process. It is his fault, however, that he hasn’t improved in the three-plus seasons he’s been in the league. Part of the reason Nagy made the switch last week is because Trubisky clearly can’t read defenses at this stage in his career. Foles can, and while he can be a turnover waiting to happen himself, the offense won’t be as handcuffed with him under center.

Let’s also not forget how badly Philip Rivers struggled on the road in Jacksonville Week 1. He completed an absurd 36-of-45 passes for 363 yards and a touchdown, but his two interceptions were tailor-made for the opposing defense as he stared down his receivers. This is still the quarterback who looked washed up at times a year ago with the Chargers and the guy everyone was writing off again following Week 1. I see a couple of big, momentum-turning turnovers from Rivers on Sunday in a Bears victory.

NFL Week 4 Selection: Bears +2.5