Week 6 NFL Betting Picks: Player Props

Oct 17, 2020

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Week 5 Recap: We were having a positive weekend until Monday Night Football. Hunter Henry turned eight targets into just four receptions for 23 yards, despite an excellent matchup and essentially no target competition. D.J. Chark played a season-low 67% of the snaps and is now unlikely to play this week after struggling through last week's game and busting our over. Baker Mayfield’s passing yard prop lost by half a yard, but to be fair, I’m not even sure how it wound up being that close. He had about 215 passing yards in the first half then somehow only had a little over 30 in the second half—we can’t really consider that a bad beat but losing by half a yard never feels good. The column might be a little lighter than usual because we got down on eight plays on Discord in the #weekly-props channel Thursday night and Friday. A few of them have already gained solid closing line value, which is a great indicator of a sharp bet. Time for Week 6...

Week 6 DraftKings Player Prop Bets

Michael Gallup Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

I know we are already on CeeDee Lamb hitting more than 4.5 receptions. To be fair, though, sportsbooks are severely underestimating Andy Dalton’s ability to maintain Dallas’ offensive competence. That was never a sentence I thought I’d be typing, but it’s 2020, so anything is possible. Dalton had a few good years in Cincinnati but really struggled down the stretch with no weapons and a poor offensive line. Now he has arguably the best trio of wideouts in the league, along with solid protection. Anyways, Dalton entered last week’s game in the mid-third quarter. He targeted Gallup, Cooper and Lamb three times each. Gallup was the most successful of the trio, connecting on passes of 8, 19 and 38 yards. We have Gallup projected for 70 receiving yards, nearly double Gallup’s prop. I would bet this up to 45 receiving yards.

Risk: 1.12 units to win 1 unit