2023 FFPC Main Event Diary

Aug 14, 2023

Carmen Mondato/Getty Images

This is my favorite article to write each year and it's not close. For the past two years Ryan Noonan (@RyNoonan), John Daigle (@Notjdaigle), and I have drafted an FFPC Main Event team together. For those of you who are new, The FFPC Main Event is a high-stakes fantasy league with a tournament-style ending. At its core, it consists of 12 teams with PPR/TE-premium scoring. You can start 1 QB, 2 RBs 3 WRs, 2 FLEX players, 1 Kicker, and 1 D/ST. If you win your league or qualify by scoring the most points, you get put into a pool with all of the other qualifiers for weeks 15-17. If you score the most points in that pool you can take home as much as $1,000,000 Visit their official site for more information about the rules and scoring.

Since it’s a 6-hour slow draft, there are plenty of spirited debates, disagreements, and “I know better's” that I like to highlight throughout the draft in this article. At times I literally copy and paste our messages because I don’t think most people would believe some of the remarks said otherwise.

We are friends in real life and we all put in serious time towards researching football heading into the season. This creates… friction… when it comes time to draft together and when we are forced to compromise on every selection. Despite our dysfunction, we have had two pretty solid seasons as a team.

In 2021, we advanced to the championship rounds after making the league finals and were in the top 20 overall heading into the final week. In 2022, we scored the second most points in the league but lost in the league semi-finals. Still, two years, and two playoff berths, plus a chance at legitimate money is pretty solid considering only 4-of-12 teams make the playoffs in each league.

If you are looking for some entertainment, feel free to skim through some of our previous arguments. 2021 included the great Jaylen Waddle vs Marquise Brown debate as well as D.J. Moore vs Cooper Kupp. In 2022, we debated Allen Robinson vs Ezekiel Elliott. It also featured me accidentally getting too drunk at the Fantasy Expo and auto-drafting Devin Singletary over Chris Olave (I forgot about this one until now, oof). All three of us have taken some serious L’s during this process and I imagine whatever goober is running the fantasy receipts account at this point will probably get some good content out of this. Enjoy, fella.

FFPC Main Event Picks and Analysis

Round 1, Pick 10

Selection: A.J. Brown

This year we drew the 10^th pick. I can already tell this is going to cause issues from the get-go because after pick 5 or so, things aren’t very cut and dry. Narrowing down our options, we were looking at either A.J. Brown or Nick Chubb. I truly don’t think we could go wrong either way. A.J. Brown finished as the WR6 in PPR points per game last season despite the Eagles barely having to throw the ball in the second half of games last season. This year they project to be in more close games which hypothetically should raise Brown’s ceiling. High floor, high-ceiling player.

Nick Chubb was a point of disagreement for Daigle and Noonan. Noonan said that Chubb is a “Non-zero in the passing game without Kareem Hunt, has massive touchdown equity, behind a top-3 offensive line with an improved offense.”

After some back and forth between Noonan and me about who we want to target in the second round, Daigle chimed in “I go back and forth on whether Garrett Wilson should breathe in the same tier as Davante. I have Chubb, Pollard, Henry, and Barkley all piled together.”

Noonan replied, “A.J. Brown it is. Also, Derrick Henry won’t be on the squad.”

I can already tell this is going to be a blast.

Round 2, Pick 15

Selection: Nick Chubb

Prior to our second-round pick, I was nervously checking the draft board to see if by some miracle either Amon Ra St. Brown or Nick Chubb could fall to us. With one pick to go before ours, NEITHER had been selected. While we are all celebrating, Daigle mentions, “I actually hope one is taken here so we don’t have to fight.”

Thankfully, one did. Amon Ra was selected the pick before us meaning Nicholas Jamaal Chubb fell right into our laps.

I’m generally not a fan of a pick at the end of the first round this year but starting with A.J. Brown and Nick Chubb feels like it went about as well as it could have.

Round 3, Pick 34

Selection: Josh Jacobs

I made myself clear from the jump that if I were drafting alone, I would absolutely be selecting Calvin Ridley here.

“I completely understand that Ridley is probably being priced above his median outcome. But if he is who he was before the suspension, he is significantly better than Kirk/Zay playing with an ascending QB and will absolutely smash this year.”

Daigle completely disagreed saying, “All of those receivers (Ridley, Deebo Samuel, Keenan Allen, Jerry Jeudy, Amari Cooper) are the same, so we should just let one of them fall to us rather than picking one.”

Here we go again. Daigle with his whole “nothing matters” spiel. These are the words of a true best ball bro grinding exposures to the decimals over hundreds (thousands?) of teams. Daigle either has an ultra-strong player take or says, “they are all the same.”

Noonan was not too thrilled about Daigle’s comments either and said, “I don’t love the “all X are the same” argument. We have to be able to discern the differences, this is what we do.” Noonan went for the full flex tossing in that he in fact is, “The industry’s top wide receiver ranker over the past 3 years.

While this is fully factual, Daigle was having none of it replying dismissively, “The best median ranker*.”

Noonan, “If that makes you feel better, sure.”

Things continued to get more tense so naturally, I decided to pour more fuel into the fire.

“Ridley is about to lead the league in receiving yards and Daigle will still be saying he was a bad pick because people overreacted to his training camp clips.”

Eventually, Daigle circled back to the original point about every player being the same and suggested, “If this is what we do then we lean into risk and take Josh Jacobs."

I have to hand it to Daigle, my initial reaction to anything Josh Jacobs this offseason has generally been met with mouth sweats and pre-vomit anxiety but given the structure of the FFPC Main Event and such a top-heavy payout, taking Josh Jacobs here would actually be a great decision to make our team unique and create upside. Beyond the Raiders already walking it back and saying they are “open to restarting conversations,” Josh Jacobs is owed $10.9M as long as he shows up before the season.

Prior to Josh Jacobs’ holdout, he was a late second-round pick in FFPC drafts at 22^nd overall. If he decided to show up to training camp tomorrow, he would probably go back to being drafted in that range, right around Rhamondre Stevenson and Tony Pollard.

Considering most Main Event Drafts haven’t even happened yet, we would be getting roughly a 10-spot value over teams drafting after Jacobs decides to report. That doesn’t sound significant but at the top of the board, it is pretty massive. Also to be clear, I don’t love Josh Jacobs necessarily after an insane amount of touches last season, this is mostly a game theory play.

The downside is obviously rough. If he doesn’t show up and goes full LeVeon Bell, we just burned a late third-round pick. But the way this prize pool is set up, we need a lot to go right in order for us to have a chance to win serious money anyways.

We also discussed Breece Hall if he made it to us, citing our favorite Twitter doctors who technically don’t all agree on his recovery. Hall was thankfully selected one pick before us otherwise this would have dissolved into a “my fantasy football doctor is better than yours” argument, which is not how I want to spend my Wednesday afternoon.

Noonan still wanted Ridley but he capitulated so we wound up taking Josh Jacobs. Scared money don’t make money.

Round 4, Pick 39

Selection: Lamar Jackson

With our next pick, I wanted one of Lamar Jackson, Calvin Ridley, or Deebo Samuel.

Noonan pointed out that Lamar has legitimate QB1 upside and I agree. A lot has been made of Todd Monken’s offense and it’s hard to ignore the potential differences. Maybe there won’t be as many read options, but the spacing of the offense should allow Lamar significantly more space to scramble. People also forget that Lamar Jackson ran a pro-style offense at Louisville with no weapons and put up video game numbers. Now with OBJ, Bateman, Zay Flowers, and Mark Andrews at his disposal, predicting career-high passing numbers and efficiency isn’t out of the question.

Najee went at 3.11 and was not on any of our radars.

The turn was pretty brutal. Deebo Samuel and Calvin Ridley were selected. Side note: I really like Team-12’s start of Saquon, Garrett Wilson, Deebo Samuel, and Calvin Ridley.

Team 11 did us a massive favor though with Travis Etienne as his second pick at 4.02. Etienne was another player none of us were interested in.

At this point there were no arguments on Lamar. Everyone else left on the board either had massive flaws or was a significant reach. After a scrappy 3^rd round, the 4^th round was settled relatively peacefully.

Rounds 5 & 6

Selection: Mike Williams & Tyler Lockett

Leading up to this pick both Daigle and Noonan were pounding the table for Diontae Johnson. Of course, he wound up going the pick before.

That left us with a group of wideouts including Chris Godwin, Mike Williams, Brandon Aiyuk, Marquise Brown, Tyler Lockett, Mike Evans, and Michael Pittman. They all have upside but it’s pretty easy to poke holes in most of them as well.

I have no problem fading both Tampa pass-catchers and Daigle is fully out on Brandon Aiyuk. I was slightly surprised Daigle wasn’t all in on Marquise Brown again after he couldn’t get enough of him in previous years. Both Noonan and I suggested Mike Williams or Tyler Lockett but a lean towards Williams. Daigle capitulated so we took Big Mike.

We got lucky on the turn and Tyler Lockett made it back to us for our 6^th rounder. Considering all of us had Williams and Lockett pretty close, this was an easy decision. Boomer Noonan made a dad joke, “Lock-ett in” and Daigle sent a rare double text because he was so giddy.

Rounds 5/6 were pretty tame. The calm before another storm.

Rounds 7 & 8

Selections: Pat Freiermuth & Jordan Addison

Both Daigle and I were excited about Pat Freiermuth here while Noonan said he is “pretty comfortable with a few punt tight ends.” We will probably still end up taking 1-2 more considering it is a 20-round draft but in my mind, Freiermuth locks in a TE1 with top-5 tight end upside.

His splits with Kenny Pickett last year were extremely encouraging in terms of target share. The only concern was that he didn’t score many touchdowns. That should naturally regress. In tight end premium and at TE9, he is a great bet at ADP.

Pat Friermuth in the 10 games he didn't leave early and Kenny Pickett attempted 10+ passes:

• 7.3 targets per game

• 5 receptions per game

• 58.2 yards per game pic.twitter.com/t8K6BpBuQT

— Connor Allen (@ConnorAllenNFL) June 28, 2023

The pick on the wrap around produced some fun arguments. Daigle started the conversation with “Dotson or Addison. Will listen to argument for either.”

He probably didn’t mean to be that condescending but the way I read it was like a king telling his jesters to dance and entertain him. I obviously did not say anything at this point outside of “Lmao.”

Noonan started to carry the conversation by saying “I like this range. Pickens is a no with Muth in my opinion, Dotson, Moore, Addison, or Gabe all interesting.”

Daigle: “Pickens is a no anyways. Also, why do you like Addison, Connor?

After a direct question that felt somewhat genuine, I replied with a long paragraph that probably reads better written as bullets:

His game translates well to the NFL in terms of being a separator.
He will almost never have to face a #1 cornerback.
The Vikings are going to have to throw even more this year because their defense is going to be garbage and Kirk is relatively efficient as a passer.
Worst case he is the third option in the passing game behind Hockenson and is a rotational flex for us.
Best case the Vikings have the next Chase/Higgins or Tyreek/Waddle in terms of production and Addison is a weekly fringe WR2.

Daigle left it up to Noonan who said, he “likes Dotson more but Addison’s situation is superior.”

I decided to poke the bear a bit and said, “What do you guys like about Dotson? Seems like a triple condom pick unless he is better than Terry Mclaurin or Sam Howell is legit.”

Noonan thoughtfully responded, “I don’t think he is a 3-condom play at all. You know I was a fan pre-draft and he was really efficient last year, 6^th in fantasy points per touch. He missed time which set him back but I think they’ll be a bit more pass-heavy with Howell and new OC Eric Bienemy. Dude is also a legit route-runner.”

Daigle snarkily added, “He led a team in target share for six straight weeks. How are condoms involved.”

I replied, “Any time Sam Howell is your quarterback at least one is being worn.”

Noonan then called me out and said I am a “Fake Howell stan.”

Fair point. I did just talk him and up on Move The Line but did note that Howell has a sizable range of outcomes this season. We have a one game sample size of mediocrity for Howell who is now paired with an OC that is used to preparing an offense for Patrick Mahomes. He is playing behind a bottom-5 offensive line albeit with good weapons.

*Shrugs*

Seems like there is more downside here with Dotson than Addison and a similar ceiling but Noonan and Daigle made some compelling points. After a brief Gabe Davis discussion, Noonan made the final call to go with Jordan Addison.

At this point, I think all of us are pretty happy with our team.

Rounds 9 & 10

Selections: Nico Collins and Marvin Mims

Despite technically being a reach in the late-9^th, Nico Collins was a unanimous selection among us three. As a player that seems to be the Texans’ clear No. 1 receiving option on an offense that could look a lot different with Shanahan-disciple Bobby Slowik Jr at offensive coordinator, C.J. Stroud at QB, and a middling offensive line.

The next pick is admittedly a rough one to write about. Daigle and I got in a legitimately heated argument that had very little to do with this draft. Verbal punches were thrown on both sides, multiple of which were below the belt. I’m sure avid readers of this column are probably asking themselves how much worse it could be than what has already been written and I would say, significantly. So, unfortunately, it will have to be left at that. We have since apologized to one another and are good but things got rough for a hot second there.

While still pissed off, I was planning on tossing this video in here but it doesn’t really fit anymore. Yet, it’s still an awesome clip and this is my article so eat it, corporate.

Four years ago today, Conor McGregor took the chance to apologize...

TO ABSOLUTELY NOBODY! 🤐 pic.twitter.com/BRRKngYULp

— ESPN UK (@ESPNUK) November 12, 2020

After the dust settled, we wound up taking Marvin Mims Jr. This was a pretty significant reach as his ADP is 2+ rounds later. The differentiator for Noonan and I was Daigle pounding the table for him in a queue that was frankly filled with nobodies. I listed a bunch of running back and wide receiver options but no one really moved the needle for us outside of Marvin Mims Jr.

Both Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton have been oft-injured and disappointing so far. Meanwhile, Marvin Mims ran a 4.38-second 40-yard dash and has a 96th-percentile breakout age. He was selected in the second round by the Broncos and more importantly, the first receiver taken in a Broncos regime influenced by Sean Payton. After a sluggish start, reports from Broncos camp are strong that Russell Wilson and the offense is turning things around. With Tim Patrick tearing an Achilles, Mims figures to see immediate playing time from the get-go.

Rounds 11 & 12

Selections: Elijah Mitchell & Juwan Johnson

Daigle started this pick by saying “I personally can’t believe Elijah Mitchell came back to us.” I agreed and actually threw Mitchell’s name out as a potential option at the 9/10 turn so I was also pretty surprised.

Noonan added, “I’m good with that, we need to take some stabs at running back.”

Sometimes life is easy.

Before we dive into the next few picks, I want to make it clear I was at a bachelor party and mistakes were made so try and view it through that lens. One of the mistakes was this pick.

After floating out a few other running back targets, Daigle wanted Tyler Allgeier or Zamir White. Noonan suggested Bears RB Roschon Johnson.

“Herbert is not good as a pass-catcher or blocker and Roschon is excellent at both. I think if he can earn 3^rd down snaps, he had a path to earning early-down work. Sneaky awesome run-blocking offensive line. They were 5^th in run-block win rate and got better this offseason.”

The overarching points were strong but I responded with a major concern “I don’t think pass-down work matters much with Fields unfortunately because of how much he scrambles. But if you have conviction I’m fine with it.”

Noonan rebutted suggesting that Roschon’s overall skill set will earn him more reps regardless. So I went to lock in Roschon.

That would have all been great but at this point, there was no time left on the clock. So instead, we were auto-drafted Juwan Johnson.

It could have been much, much worse but we have now auto-drafted a player two years in a row. Alcohol seems to be a common theme.

Noonan took 12 hours to respond, most likely out of anger, and said “Roschon next RB off the board with the Andy Samberg “cool cool cool cool” gif.”

After Khalil Herbert played all 7 snaps with Justin Fields on Saturday I decided to poke the Bear a bit more and said, “Khalil dominating anyways.”

Daigle added, “Foreman playing in the second quarter.”

Noonan sarcastically replied,” The incumbent in the first preseason game got all the first team snaps? I’m shocked guys.”

I tried to bait Noonan into a bet of Khalil Herbert vs Roschon Johnson in fantasy points per game with +150 odds for Roschon. (I pay Noonan $150 if Roschon wins, he pays me $100 if Khalil wins).

No dice. Noonan said, “My friends are slaves to preseason Week 1 depth charts.”

I tried again. “Let’s bet on it”

Noonan still wasn’t having it, “This is about fantasy upside, ideally late-season upside. Not a 1v1 bet, Herbert goes 2-3 rounds ahead of him at least.”

He continued, “Roschon was always going to be 3^rd on the depth chart early in camp. He was awesome when David Montgomery missed time last year. Then got 4 touches in the next 2 weeks.”

I drunkenly replied, “Yeah because David Montgomery is also good and a team leader.”

Noonan was not having it at this point, “A team leader, he said."

Not gonna lie, that one made me laugh a bit.

I again tried to convince Noonan to bet on it and his reply was “Is Herbert a team leader this year? Haven’t factored that in yet.”

Now clearly pissed that we don’t have Roschon he fired, “We’re moving the goalpost here, ignoring the fact that you can’t handle a 6-hour clock.”

I completely ignored the jab and said, “Can’t believe you are trying to stan so hard for a guy and won’t even bet on it.”

Noonan FINALLY caved after 5 attempts and said, “+175, bet. Herbert is good and possibly a #teamleader.”

Even if I lose the bet, it was a fun discussion.