Expert Fantasy Football Mock Draft Recap: 12-Team Half-PPR (August 2023)

Aug 31, 2023

Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports

Draft weekend is finally here, and what better way to prepare than to examine (and judge) another draft board to see mistakes to avoid and areas to attack? I rounded up 11 other 4for4/DLF members for a nice team challenge of mocking your best possible team.

All ADP will be courtesy of 4for4's Multi-Site ADP tool with rankings from our current half-PPR ranks. The full draft board will be posted at the bottom of the article, but you can jump to it here.

2023 Fantasy Football Mock Draft

Roster Settings: 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1 Flex (RB/WR/TE), 1K, 1D/ST, 6 Bench Spots
Scoring of Note: Half-PPR

Draft Participants in Order:

Brandon Haye
Phillip Brenner (subscriber) - @clogzilla93
Brandon Niles - @2guysbrandon
Pranav Rajaram - @_pranavrajaram
Jeff S. - @FFJeffsmith
Scott Pagel - @4for4_Scott
Neil Dutton - @Ndutton13
Matt Price - @MattPriceFF
Andrew Fleischer - @afleischer
Brendan Darr - @BrendanDarr
Jennifer Eakins - @JenEakinsNFL
Justin Edwards - @Justin_Redwards

Rounds 1-3

Takeaways

Drafters came out a little lighter on wide receivers than in our previous iterations throughout the summer. Eighteen of them went through the initial 36 picks, down from 20 in the first 27 selections last month. 12-team Multi-Site ADP has 16 WRs coming off the board in the first three rounds.

Biggest Reaches

Josh Allen (2.12), Deebo Samuel (3.03)

Certainly, taking a stand as Josh Allen as your QB1 is no folly, and though I prefer Jalen Hurts in the No. 1 spot, I can see the argument in leaning towards Allen’s longer streak of success. The issue arises when you double down at quarterback after you’ve already sunk so much draft capital in the position. Taking an elite QB at the second/third turn is a viable strategy, as you’re correct to worry about one of them making it back to you at the 4.12.

There’s no denying that Deebo Samuel is one of the most unique athletes playing in the league today. With his electrifying yards-after-catch (YAC) abilities and the team’s propensity to stick him in the backfield, he adds another terrifying wrinkle to the offense. Samuel can score fantasy points in literally all areas of the field. Sadly, what works in real-life football doesn’t always equate to consistent fantasy production. He is part of an offense that is just too good.

After the 49ers traded for Christian McCaffrey, Samuel still led all four main offensive pieces (McCaffrey, George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk) with a 22.8% target share when they were all on the field. That’s a perfectly fine mark for a lot of receivers in this range of the draft, but his lack of vertical usage really caps what he can do with that type of offensive involvement. His 4.3 aDOT and 30.8 air yards per game are both depressingly low if you’re not playing in a points-per-first-down league. The best bet for the 49ers faithful is to wait and take Aiyuk over 25 picks later.

Best Values

Tony Pollard (2.04), Chris Olave (3.08)

Chris Olave falling toward the end of the third round is one of my favorite values in this exercise, especially when paired with fellow sophomore receiver Garrett Wilson. Both of them make for realistic top-10 options after Olave finished his rookie season with the 11th-highest yards per route run (2.47) as the Saints consistently used him down the field (14.1 average depth of target). If Michael Thomas is truly back to full health and can threaten in the short to intermediate, Olave could have a very quick breakout season.

Tony Pollard has been consistently going in the back half of the first round, so snagging him with the 16th overall pick looks awesome. I asked Andrew Fleischer how he felt about Pollard after making the pick:

“I'm all-in on 2023 Tony Pollard. With Ezekiel Elliott gone, he's got very little backfield competition behind an offensive line ranked at No. 7 by the esteemed Justin Edwards, and he was the 0.5 PPR RB7 last season with only 39.7% of his team's carries and just 32.9% of team red zone carries. He had the highest yards after contact of any RB with at least 100 attempts, and the 3rd-highest YAC/Rec of any RB with at least 50 targets. Finally, he's the main beneficiary of Mike McCarthy's takeover of the Cowboys offense and his stated desire to ‘run the damn ball so I can rest my defense.’ What's not to love?”

Rounds 4-7

Takeaways

Quarterback runs didn’t seem to affect this group of drafters very much, as the “Big Three” (Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Jalen Hurts) went 10 picks ahead of the fourth quarterback. No QBs went within even two picks of the other in this range, while you will typically see plenty of back-to-backs.

Biggest Reaches

Lamar Jackson (4.01), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (5.08)

I’m the culprit who may have reached a little bit on Lamar Jackson, but with 24 selections between the 4.01 and 5.12, I wanted an option with an outside shot of finishing as the overall QB1 this year. As much as I love Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert, there’s just no way they can make that happen without throwing 50+ touchdowns, and even then, it may not be enough to overtake the rushing quarterbacks.

Matt Price successfully drafted the youngest team in this draft (or maybe any draft), but I’m not in love with Jaxon Smith-Njigba here in the fifth round. That doesn’t mean I don’t believe in the talent, just that his wrist injury has scared me off of taking him so early after we’ve seen him consistently go in the seventh round, even before this injury. The rookie receiver may overtake both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett by the end of the season, but it may take him too long into the year for him to pay off this draft capital. Although, he’s operating on this fantasy team as a WR4, so maybe that was part of the plan.

Best Values

Michael Pittman (5.03), T.J. Hockenson (6.09)

After recently signing an extension that made him one of the highest-paid tight ends in the National Football League, any whisperings of a holdout are far behind us for T.J. Hockenson. Not only does Hockenson go as the TE5 here, but maybe more importantly, he went towards the end of the sixth round. That is one of the best bargains of the draft, as he is typically taken as the TE3 at the fourth/fifth turn.

Indianapolis Colts WR Michael Pittman’s ADP fluctuates like no other from draft to draft. Everyone has their own opinion on how Pittman will fair with rookie Anthony Richardson slated to start Week 1. Here are Brandon Niles’ thoughts on why he doesn’t mind using fifth-round draft capital to procure the talent and his propensity to fill his Flex spot with wide receivers:

“Pittman and George Pickens are guys I’m targeting in Rounds 5-7 in all drafts. Both have WR1 upside. Pittman, in particular, is a nice value there. He should easily lead the team in targets, and his wide catch radius should make him a favorite for rookie Anthony Richardson. With running back value deep this year, I’m targeting wide receivers for my early-season flex spots and letting typical running back attrition bolster my late-season backfield.”

Rounds 8-11

Takeaways

Teams with pass-heavy offensive tendencies are now seeing their running backs come off the board, with drafters aiming to capture some of the upside provided by an above-average offense. That pool of backs includes Devon Achane, Jerick McKinnon, and James Cook, to name a few.

Biggest Reaches

Kirk Cousins (9.07), 49ers D/ST (10.08)

It’s easy to overlook the old-school pocket passers in this new age of rushing quarterbacks. But, sometimes, overlooking is what we should be doing. There’s no doubt Kirk Cousins has a great pass-catching group at his disposal, but he also hasn’t had 40 rushing attempts in a season since 2018. As such, Cousins has capped out as the QB8 over his tenure with the Minnesota Vikings despite throwing for 4,000+ yards in four of those seasons and 30+ touchdowns in three of them.

With so many more rounds to load on depth at your skill positions, taking a defense in the 10th round is not recommended.

Best Values

Geno Smith (10.02), Tyler Higbee (10.06)

Tyler Higbee operated as the Rams' No. 2 receiving option in 2022, with and without Cooper Kupp on the field, while running the 10th-most routes (392) and the fourth-highest target share (22%) at the position. Behind Kupp, we have very little to be afraid of in the receiving room. Van Jefferson has never been a full-fledged target earner, Tutu Atwell is unable to carve a consistent place in the offense, and Puka Nacua is a fifth-round rookie. With any improvement in the offensive line, we could see Higbee out in routes more often than staying in to help protect the edges. Higbee is a top-10 option going far too late in typical drafts.

Waiting on quarterback has fallen slightly out of vogue in recent years, but there is still a way to make it work. Here is what Jennifer Eakins said about grabbing Geno Smith in the 10th round:

“In a single-QB format, I don't mind waiting on the position, as plenty of starting QBs are all close in projections, leaving the board in round eight or later. Geno Smith has a myriad of weapons, and as 4for4's QB9, I think I got some value in the 10th round as the 11th signal caller selected.”

Rounds 12-15

Takeaways

On many fantasy platforms, you are forced to leave drafts with both a kicker and a defense, so we tried to incorporate some of those options into the final rounds here to give you an idea of who we are targeting at those positions.

Best Values

Jerome Ford (13.03), Dalton Kincaid (15.05)

Though Nick Chubb is slated to have a monster workload this year, we can’t exactly project him for 90% of the team’s backfield touches. There is a chance Jerome Ford has a bigger role than we are giving him credit for, and with practically no one else on the depth chart, he is the obvious beneficiary if Chubb is forced to miss any time in 2023.

Depending on the roster size of your league, stashing away Dalton Kincaid while we wait to see what exactly his role will be is a great idea. If you don’t have the bench space, make sure Kincaid is on the shortlist while considering tight end streamers.

Rookie Costs

Quarterback: Anthony Richardson (QB10, 9.10)

Running Backs (9): Bijan Robinson (RB4, 1.08), Jahmyr Gibbs (RB10, 3.04), Tank Bigsby (RB36, 9.02), Zach Charbonnet (RB39, 9.11), Devon Achane (RB42, 10.04), Tyjae Spears (RB46, 12.05), Kendre Miller (RB55, 13.08), , Roschon Johnson (RB56, 13.09), Sean Tucker (RB58, 14.05)

Wide Receivers (7): Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR27, 5.08), Zay Flowers (WR36, 6.12), Jordan Addison (WR42, 7.12), Quentin Johnston (WR45, 8.11), Marvin Mims (WR53, 10.11), Rashee Rice (WR62, 12.04), Cedric Tillman (WR67, 13.05)

Tight Ends (2): Sam LaPorta (TE11, 10.12), Dalton Kincaid (TE14, 15.05),

Final Draft Board

Bottom Line

There were 60 total RBs drafted and 70 WRs.
Fifteen QBs were selected in this mock, with three teams drafting a backup.
Only two of the 12 teams drafted a second tight end, leaving the total number selected at 14.
The longest any team waited to draft an RB was 4.12 (Travis Etienne), while the furthest any manager waited to select a WR was 3.12 (Amari Cooper).
The offseason hype for many of the rookies, namely running backs, has died down over the summer. In this month's mock, we saw far fewer rookie RBs even come off the board, though two rookie tight ends finally found their way on fantasy rosters. Key undrafted rookies include TE Michael Mayer and wide receivers Skyy Moore and Jonathan Mingo. If we didn’t have kickers and defenses in the exercise, the latter two would have assuredly been selected.