Expert Fantasy Football Mock Draft Recap: 12-Team Half-PPR (August 2024)

With less than three weeks until the NFL season officially kicks off, fantasy football drafts are in high gear as Thursday, September 4^th approaches. The 4for4 team gathered six experts from around the industry to draft with six of our in-house experts to look at the current state of the fantasy football landscape.

All ADP will be from 4for4’s consensus site tool with rankings from 4for4 ranks. The full draft board will be posted at the bottom of the article.

2024 Fantasy Football Mock Draft

• Roster Settings: 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 2 FLEX (RB/WR/TE), 1K, 1 DEF, 5 Bench Spots (15 rounds)
• Scoring Format: Half-PPR

Draft Participants in Order:

1. Billy Riccette (@Billy_Riccette) – 4for4
2. Nick Skrip (@P2WFantasy) – Fantrax
3. Jon Impemba (@jimpemba777) – Fantasy Alarm
4. T.J. Besler (@teejlerbess) – FantasyData
5. Brendan Darr (@BrendanDarr) – 4for4
6. Stephen Hoopes (@StephenHoopes) – 4for4
7. Mike Maher (@mikeMaher) – FantasyPros
8. Joe Bond (@F6P_Joe) – Fantasy Six Pack
9. Ryan Kirksey (@CableBoxScore) – 4for4
10. Neil Dutton (@ndutton13) – 4for4
11. Justin Edwards (@Justin_Redwards) – 4for4
12. Aaron Schill (@aaron_schill) – FF Faceoff | Fantasy Football Calculator

Rounds 1-3

Takeaways

For a standard half-PPR, one-quarterback league, this was about as chalky a start as you might predict from analysts who are living and breathing this information and content every single day. Ten running backs and 13 wide receivers were selected in the first 23 picks with only mild deviations from ADP throughout the first two or three rounds. Only one quarterback was picked in the first three rounds.

Perhaps the most interesting start is Brendan Darr who was able to start with CeeDee Lamb and Devon Achane. That’s either a league-winning start or one that looks rather silly in hindsight depending on Lamb’s contract and Achane’s efficiency (more on that below).

Biggest Reaches

Sam LaPorta (2.12), D.J. Moore (3.05)

In what was a fairly chalky start to this mock draft, it’s difficult to pinpoint too much as a “reach,” so I will highlight a couple of players who went ahead of their consensus ADP. Sam LaPorta went with the last pick in the second round when he is traditionally going in the middle of the third.

There is absolutely no issue with LaPorta in the third round after he played 83% of offensive snaps as a rookie and was fourth in the position in red zone targets (16). His 24% target share is an elite number for a tight end (especially a first-year player) and his targets could even go up if Jameson Williams busts or Jahmyr Gibbs enters the season hurt.

D.J. Moore is an absolute beast of a wide receiver but is locked in an ugly three-way wide receiver battle with Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze with a rookie at quarterback (Caleb Williams). His ADP is middle of the fourth round currently, so a pick at 3.05 is a bit of a reach here. I expect his 29% target share to go down slightly with all the new competition. And we have to at least consider that he just signed a contract worth more than $100 million this offseason. Is the fire that earned him that contract gone? Likely not, but it’s worth considering.

Best Values

CeeDee Lamb (1.05), Isiah Pacheco (3.03)

With no significant updates in weeks on the contract negotiations with CeeDee Lamb, he falls all the way to fifth in this draft when his ADP has solidly been the second pick in the draft on almost all fantasy sites. This situation has the potential to be the biggest fantasy backfire since Le'Veon Bell, but if he does sign, a pick at number five for the No. 1 wide receiver in 2023 looks like a steal.

Interestingly, in the June mock draft conducted by many 4for4 experts, Isiah Pacheco went 3.05 and was labeled a “Reach.” Here, Pacheco goes two spots higher and is considered a value at RB11. It’s almost like there is some subjectivity to fantasy football or something. After Pacheco, there is a significant dropoff in running back tiers. All the backs behind him have serious question marks or timeshare issues. Give me the undisputed workhorse running back on one of the best offenses in football in the third round any day of the week.

Rounds 4-7

Takeaways

As the draft moves into the middle rounds, the elite quarterbacks start to come off the board quickly. Eight quarterbacks go in the first 39 picks of these rounds. If your draft plan is to grab one of the elite, top-10 quarterbacks, prepare to do so before Round 6 ends. After Jordan Love was drafted at 7.03, only two quarterbacks were taken in the next 22 picks and one of them went way ahead of ADP (Tua Tagovailoa).

Biggest Reaches

Xavier Worthy (6.06), Rome Odunze (7.06)

Xavier Worthy’s ADP in half-PPR has settled in around the middle of the eighth round (8.05). There is certainly justification for Worthy being selected slightly higher with Hollywood Brown’s recent injury, and the uncertainty of Rashee Rice’s legal situation. However, climbing up two full rounds to take him seems like a stretch. On a site like Underdog, where spike weeks for Best Ball are king, his ADP is 58. On other sites. He settles in around pick 100. Even with no Hollywood Brown for a couple of weeks, Worthy faces still target competition from Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, and even Isiah Pacheco (44 receptions in 2023).

Much like with D.J. Moore, we are asking a lot of Caleb Williams in his rookie season to pay off the price tags of three wide receivers in the first seven rounds. The Chicago Bears still have Cole Kmet and D’Andre Swift who will demand the ball on offense, so Odunze in the seventh round might be a bridge too far unless Keenan Allen goes down with injury or falls off the age cliff.

Best Values

Rashee Rice (7.05), DeVonta Smith (4.06)

The closer we get to the start of the 2024 season the less likely it appears that Rashee Rice will be suspended by the NFL for the current campaign. They will likely make a judgment after his court proceedings are over and that may not wrap up until late in the season. With that knowledge, Rice is an elite value in the middle of the seventh round. Rice was seventh in red zone targets, third in yards after the catch, and tenth in yards per route run in 2023. And this is from a receiver who only played over 60% of offensive snaps twice until Week 12.

DeVonta Smith goes about five picks after ADP in this draft and could be the steal of the early part of the draft after setting career-highs in receiving touchdowns last year. What’s exciting about Smith is that his targets, receptions, yards, and yards per reception all fell off from 2022, and he was still WR20 in fantasy points per game. If Smith and the Eagles’ offense gets back to his levels from 2022, this could be a top-15 wide receiver taken in this draft as WR23.

Rounds 8 -11

Takeaways

Rounds 8-11 is the time when most rosters have filled their primary positions and it becomes “get my guys” time. Do you feel strongly that Khalil Shakir will outperform Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel on the Bills this season? Neil Dutton clearly did, so he made sure to stack him with Josh Allen at the end of the ninth round even though Samuel and Coleman have higher ADP numbers right now.

This is also the range where both rookie quarterbacks were taken in this draft. There is, of course, inherent risk with drafting an unproven rookie, which is why you can find their tantalizing upside in the later rounds of a draft. Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels could both be top-10 options this year, but their price tag shows you can wait until Round 9 to acquire their services.

Biggest Reaches

Xavier Legette (11.01), Tua Tagovailoa (8.06)

Despite the upgrades at wide receiver and in the coaching staff, there are still huge problems with the Carolina Panthers offense. Bryce Young only had minimal flashes in 2024 and needs to take a huge leap this year to prove his worth. Until we see it, I am out on Xavier Legette’s ADP of 14.01, much less a pick of that player at 11.01. This is a player who did not perform well in college until his senior season, and he is going to turn 24 during this NFL campaign.

Tua Tagovailoa in the middle of the eighth round requires a leap of faith that the player who scored over 22 fantasy points multiple times in the first half of the 2023 season is the same player who shows up in 2024. In the second half of 2023, Tagovailoa was QB26 in fantasy points per game and never reached 20 fantasy points after their Week 10 bye. If you told me Tua Tagovailoa was not drafted as a starter in this 12-team league, I would not have been surprised.

Biggest Values

Zamir White (8.01), Brock Bowers (10.02)

Two Las Vegas Raiders as offensive values in a draft? Are Bo Jackson and Marcus Allen teammates again? My thoughts on the potential for Zamir White to be a breakout running back who can win leagues are well documented. When given a full-time role for four weeks, in 2023, White dominated. We are already seeing him taking the lion’s share of the rushing and goal-line work in preseason as well. He is primed for a huge year.

Brock Bowers was brought in to help block for the run game (which Antonio Pierce wants to establish it like it has never been established before) but also to be a safety valve for newly minted starting quarterback Gardner Minshew. Bowers is an uber-athlete who tested well at the combine and combined for 26 touchdowns in three college seasons. As the 13^th overall pick in the draft, Bowers is about to be deployed as a major weapon in this offense.

Rounds 12-15

Takeaways

Much of the last three rounds of this draft were spent securing kickers, defenses, backup quarterbacks, and backup tight ends. This is also where you shouldn’t be afraid to take the long-shot players you feel strongest about this draft season. For example, did Quentin Johnston show anything worthy of being a quality fantasy contributor last season? No, but at pick 15.03, there is zero risk to find out if he makes a sophomore leap in 2024.

Best Values

Brock Purdy (12.08), Braelon Allen (14.08)

By now, all fantasy managers know that Brock Purdy was the QB6 in fantasy points per game last year thanks to some otherworldly efficiency and assistance from his receivers. Purdy was number one in yards per attempt despite being only 16^th in air yards. His receivers are yards after the catch monsters that take his good throws and turn them into excellent gains.

The pendulum has swung the other way as many expect some negative regression, especially if Brandon Aiyuk leaves town. But the hate has gone too far. Purdy was taken as a backup and QB14 in this draft. I don’t expect him to contend for top-five status again this year, but his weapons will make him a borderline top-ten option every year.

For backup running backs, particularly in a Hero RB or Zero RB strategy, we want options that could consume a full-time role if things break their way. That is the case with Braelon Allen. Breece Hall has one of the largest workloads in the NFL, and if he were to get injured or miss time, most of that would fall to Allen. With only the Chicago Bears backup running backs taken after him in this draft, the payoff here could be great if opportunity presents itself.

What the 4for4 Experts Have to Say About Their Teams

Each of the six 4for4 Experts was given a question about the construction of their team at the conclusion of the draft.

Billy Riccette (picking from the #1 spot)

Q: You went double early tight end with Sam LaPorta (Round 2) and Mark Andrews (Round 5). In a one-tight-end league, what was your strategy in taking two of these top-five tight ends?

Billy: With the targets I feel both can get, I felt I could use Andrews to my advantage in the flex and be able to use two tight ends that will both be very key cogs in their respective offenses.

Brendan Darr (#5 pick)

Q: Are you at all concerned about injury or a drop in efficiency this year from De'Von Achane? He was your only running back drafted until Round 8 so how do you feel he will perform this season?

Brendan: I try not to worry too much about injuries during drafts and I wanted to bet on the most efficient RB in the league. I obviously have high hopes for him and treat him as an anchor RB, but I was hoping to go back and grab one of James Conner or David Montgomery in Round 6 and had to pivot. Hopefully, the hero RB strategy plays out in my favor!

Stephen Hoopes (#6 pick)

Q: You grabbed Bijan Robinson with pick six and then not another running back until Jaylen Warren in Round 8. Is this Hero RB strategy your preferred way to build and what made you take Bijan over Jefferson and ARSB?

Stephen: I’m suffering from a well-known condition called “best ball brain” that typically prevents me from taking any RB in the first five rounds. But through mocks for my home league draft, I’ve come around to hero RB as the dominant strategy in non-tournament formats. Getting that anchor RB in the first few rounds opens up the potential to get an elite QB or TE (McBride in this case), without falling too far behind at WR. That’s really the reason I went with Bijan over the WRs for this mock. I think he’s one of the three RBs we’re most confident in having league-winning rushing efficiency and receiving volume.

Ryan Kirksey (#9 pick)

Q: So, Mailk Nabers is your WR2, taken with the ninth pick in the third round. Are you concerned at all after the disastrous preseason debut from Daniel Jones on Saturday?

Ryan: Can I say yes and no? In the end, I think Nabers will be a top-10 wide receiver in targets this year. They are going to be smothering him with targets all year. Maybe I’m too red-pilled from watching how much the Giants loved Nabers in the pre-draft process in Hard Knocks: Offseason, but it would not surprise me if he ends up with 160 targets or more. On the other hand, I think Daniel Jones at quarterback limits Nabers’ touchdown upside. In this inept offense, I don’t see Nabers finishing with more than five or six scores in 2024.

Neil Dutton (#10 pick)

Q: You took the first quarterback off the board in this mock (Josh Allen at 3.10). Are you typically looking to draft an elite quarterback early in 1-QB leagues or did you just prefer the value of Allen where he went?

Neil: Usually I am happy to wait to take a QB. Granted, I’ll probably have to make do with a pocket passer if I do. But if I have a chance to take one of the three elite rushers (Allen, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson) this season then I think I’m going to seize it!

Justin Edwards (#11 pick)

Q: Nine of the 12 teams took two pass-catchers in the first three rounds of the draft. You double-tapped running back after taking Puka Nacua. Do you typically want two running backs in your first three picks in half-PPR formats?

Justin: Typically I lean toward one (or zero) through three rounds but I really liked where Jacobs fell in this draft. When a perceived RB value falls to me I'm happy to zig into two backs and let them be my RB room until much later in the draft.

Rookie Costs

Quarterbacks: Caleb Williams (QB12, 9.02) Jayden Daniels (QB13, 10.07),

Running Backs: Jonathon Brooks (RB32, 9.03), Trey Benson (RB36, 9.09), Blake Corum (RB43, 11.09), Jaylen Wright (RB46, 12.07), MarShawn Lloyd (RB48, 13.01), Ray Davis (RB50, 13.06), Tyrone Tracy (RB54, 14.06), Bucky Irving (RB55, 14.07), Braelon Allen (RB56, 14.08)

Wide Receivers: Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR9, 2.03), Malik Nabers (WR20, 3.09), Xavier Worthy (WR33, 6.06), Ladd McConkey (WR36, 7.01), Rome Odunze (WR39, 7.06), Brian Thomas Jr. (WR45, 8.11), Keon Coleman (WR50, 10.01), Xavier Legette (WR53, 11.01), Adonai Mitchell (WR57, 11.07), Ricky Pearsall (WR 63, 12.06), Ja’Lynn Polk (WR64, 12.09), Jermaine Burton (WR68, 14.12)

Tight Ends: Brock Bowers (TE12, 10.02)

Final Draft Board

Bottom Line

• There were 58 total RBs drafted and 69 total WRs.
• Eighteen QBs were selected in this mock, with six teams drafting a backup.
• Three of the 12 teams decided to draft more than one tight end (including one team with three tight ends), leaving 16 selected in total.
• The longest any team waited to draft an RB was Nick Skrip taking Joe Mixon at 4.11, while the furthest any manager waited to select a WR was 3.1 when Billy Riccette selected Mike Evans.
• Deshaun Watson was selected in the very last round of this draft, so there is still plenty of value and upside at the position later in drafts in a single-QB format. Veteran quarterbacks with some upside like Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins were not drafted.
• By my count, six of the 12 teams that participated deployed a Zero RB or Hero RB build. This led to 22 of the first 36 picks being wide receivers or tight ends. There is running back value up and down draft boards.