NFL Draft Round 1 Fantasy Football Winners & Losers
The first round of the NFL Draft resulted in a whopping 14 offensive skill players being selected, with a large chunk possibly having an immediate fantasy impact. Or maybe not. Rookies are perenially unpredictable, but we do our best to digest what went down in Round 1 and assess their landing spots for fantasy purposes.
In the coming days and weeks, the 4for4 staff will have in-depth player profiles on every relevant rookie’s redraft stock, but for now, let’s take a look at the biggest redraft winners and losers from Day 1 across the NFL.
More 2024 Draft Coverage: Round 1 Live Tracker | Round 2 & 3 Tracker | Impact Rookies
Round 1 Winners
Chicago Bears Fans
Rags to riches, anyone? Long-ish suffering Bears fans have to be stoked with what this team looks like after this free agency period and Round 1. The Bears offense is absolutely loaded, starting with the first overall player selected in the NFL Draft.
Caleb Williams gets the rare opportunity to step into an offense that features a pair of elite veteran receivers in D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen, two solid tight ends in Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett, plus one of the NFL’s strongest receiving backs D’Andre Swift. Oh, and he also gets fellow rookie and flight mate to the actual draft, Rome Odunze, to toss the ball to and grow with in this Chicago offense.
From a fantasy perspective, Williams is currently the QB12 in early Underdog drafts, which seems a tad rich considering he’s going ahead of guys like Tua Tagovailoa and Jared Goff, but he does have a decent rushing floor, so he should be considered a low-end fantasy QB1/2 if things work out as expected. Odunze landed in a great spot, but his target share will be diluted with Moore and Allen in the mix, if all are healthy he’s in the WR3/4 range.
Kyler Murray, QB - Cardinals
The Cardinals stayed put at spot No. 4 and got Kyler Murray arguably the best WR product in this year’s class. Marvin Harrison Jr. is the perfect answer to replace what’s been sorely missing since D’Andre Hopkins left and should be a solid complement to Murray’s air game.
Now, with an NFL-ready star as his WR1, TE Trey McBride catching everything thrown his way, and Michael Wilson in the fold, Murray should be walking a bit taller heading into the 2024 season. His best finish in fantasy points per game was in 2020 as QB6, and a top-5 finish is well within the range of outcomes with Harrison in town.
Harrison himself will cost you a second-round pick right now (2.03) as the ninth WR off Underdog boards. That’s a pretty steep price despite 217 available targets in that Cardinals offense. He may be more affordable in redraft leagues as a WR2.
J.J. McCarthy, QB - Vikings
The Michigan product landed in a similar situation to Williams in Chicago, which could have Bryce Young shower crying compared to what he inherited last year in Carolina. McCarthy gets Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson (once he’s back from injury), plus he has Aaron Jones in the backfield.
We can assume that Sam Darnold will be at the helm for at least a little bit to allow time for McCarthy to develop if needed, but there’s little question that the rookie has the making of a successful NFL QB. With a decent rushing floor, McCarthy is in the conversation as a QB2 for best ball or Superflex leagues.
Patrick Mahomes, QB - Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes is never losing, but the rich got richer in Round 1 with the selection of WR Xavier Worthy. The Chiefs scored a player with record-setting speed (4.21 40-yard dash), plus they added Marquise Brown during free agency, making the Kansas City offense even more potent than the past two Super Bowl-winning versions.
After five straight fantasy QB1 seasons as QB6 or better, last year was a disappointment for Mahomes as he was the QB14 in per-game scoring, but with Worthy in his arsenal, a return to the top five seems inevitable.
Ricky Pearsall, WR - 49ers
It’s too early to tell at the time of writing, but if Brandon Aiyuk gets moved during the draft (ahem, Buffalo) or sometime after, Pearsall could be in a solid spot to produce right away as part of a highly effective offense in San Francisco. Pearsall is currently leaving Underdog draft boards as the WR68 at pick 13.07, but his draft stock will likely rise following the landing spot. If he’s a starting WR for Brock Purdy at some point in 2024, Pearsall can easily outproduce as a fantasy WR3/4.
Round 1 Losers
Atlanta Falcons
Just when we thought the Arthur Smith-less Falcons were moving into a fresh new era of wonderful decision-making, they go and draft Michael Penix with the eighth overall pick in Round 1. Just a month ago, Atlanta gave Kirk Cousins a four-year, $180 million contract, of which $100 million is guaranteed. Then, to add a soon-to-be 24-year-old rookie who will sit for at least a few seasons truly boggles the mind.
From a fantasy perspective, nothing really changes, except possibly missing out on another player who could have been impactful in this offense. And, of course, Cousins is most likely ticked off, which doesn't seem ideal for the locker room culture heading into the season.
Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer, TEs - Raiders
As a Brock Bowers superfan, this is painful to write. Las Vegas is not the worst possible landing spot, but there certainly could have been better outcomes for the former UGA TE. It’s not a death sentence for fantasy value considering there is a path to targets behind Davante Adams with Jakobi Meyers, and Gardner Minshew and Aiden O’Connell have had their moments. However, we’re not getting a Sam LaPorta season out of Bowers as many had hoped for. His Underdog ADP (TE9, 7.09) will most certainly plummet, but I will buy the dip as a fantasy TE2 in Vegas due to his incredible ability to make plays regardless of circumstances.
Mayer, on the other hand, is a clear loser here. With Bowers now in town, there is little to no fantasy value outside of an injury for the sophomore TE. He’s currently the TE18 and nothing more than a last-round stab in best ball formats moving forward.
Justin Herbert, QB - Chargers
Sadly, Herbert has been in the loser column since the free-agent period and remains there after the first night of the NFL Draft. The addition of tackle Joe Alt at Pick No. 5 is a win for the team overall and Herbert, but it does little to nothing for his fantasy value. The Chargers did him no favors and passed on both Rome Odunze and Malik Nabors, leaving Herbert with a brutal receiving room comprised of Joshua Palmer, Quinton Johnston, and, I guess, Hayden Hurst.
Of course, LA could and should add one or more WRs in the coming days, but as of right now, it’s U-G-L-Y for Herbert, and he’s living in low-end QB2 territory.
Josh Allen, QB - Bills
Josh Allen is still Josh Allen and remains a top-five fantasy QB heading into the 2024 season, but Round 1 was probably a rough one to watch as hopes of an elite weapon kept vanishing before his eyes. The Bills not only didn't draft Xavier Worthy, but they traded the pick to AFC nemesis Kansas City, who then took the speedy WR. Allen then watched (presumably) as Buffalo traded down again, to have the 49ers grab another solid WR in Ricky Pearsall.
Of course, there’s a lot of ball game left and we may see a trade for Brandon Aiyuk go down tonight, or the drafting of a WR like Adonai Mitchell, Troy Frankin, or Ladd McConkey, but as of right now, Allen lost his top two WRs this offseason and is still waiting for someone new to play catch with.
